Re: [marxmail] Background to Trump’s return to neo-conservativism

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John has the periodization right. PNAC's unipolar fantasy died once already=
, against North Korea, and it's dying again against Iran. But calling this =
a repetition of neo-conservative failure treats a state mechanism as a bad =
idea some faction keeps recycling. Diplomacy worked. The JCPOA worked, on i=
ts own terms, until Netanyahu and McCain torched it. So why does the U.S. s=
tate keep reaching for war after the thing that worked better?

Not ideology. Structure. Poulantzas: the state condenses a balance of class=
 forces, it isn't simply capital's transmission belt, and in a crisis that =
condensation can swing toward the executive at the expense of whatever frac=
tion was invested in the negotiated track. Weber: patrimonialism, power per=
sonalized around loyalty to a man rather than routed through institutions. =
Put them together and you get what I've been calling patrimonial Bonapartis=
m. Not "rising dictatorial tendency," which is what John's conclusion gestu=
res at and then drops. A mechanism. Trump's personal discretion overrode th=
e diplomatic track and green-lit a war that Netanyahu was already in Washin=
gton discussing in December, per Axios, before the Iranian protests that ar=
e supposed to have triggered all this had even started.

"Both sides are right and both are wrong" sounds dialectical. It's foreign-=
policy realism wearing a dialectical coat. Neither war nor diplomacy secure=
s the aims of U.S. imperialism, sure. But that's not the same question as w=
hy the war fraction beat the diplomatic fraction this time. Diplomacy didn'=
t fail on its own terms. The coalition that tried to institutionalize it lo=
st.

One place John is dead right, and it's the sentence I keep coming back to: =
the thundering silence of the union leadership. That's not a footnote. That=
's the condition of possibility for Bonapartist discretion going unconteste=
d at all. No organized proletarian pole, no friction on the executive. That=
's the thread worth pulling, not the neo-con genealogy, accurate as it is, =
which still treats this as a family quarrel among strategists of empire

--
Tony


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<div>
<p class=3D"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir=3D=
"ltr">John has the periodization right. PNAC's unipolar fantasy died once a=
lready, against North Korea, and it's dying again against Iran. But calling=
 this a repetition of neo-conservative failure treats a state mechanism as =
a bad idea some faction keeps recycling. Diplomacy worked. The JCPOA worked=
, on its own terms, until Netanyahu and McCain torched it. So why does the =
U.S. state keep reaching for war after the thing that worked better?</p>
<p class=3D"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir=3D=
"ltr">Not ideology. Structure. Poulantzas: the state condenses a balance of=
 class forces, it isn't simply capital's transmission belt, and in a crisis=
 that condensation can swing toward the executive at the expense of whateve=
r fraction was invested in the negotiated track. Weber: patrimonialism, pow=
er personalized around loyalty to a man rather than routed through institut=
ions. Put them together and you get what I've been calling patrimonial Bona=
partism. Not "rising dictatorial tendency," which is what John's conclusion=
 gestures at and then drops. A mechanism. Trump's personal discretion overr=
ode the diplomatic track and green-lit a war that Netanyahu was already in =
Washington discussing in December, per Axios, before the Iranian protests t=
hat are supposed to have triggered all this had even started.</p>
<p class=3D"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir=3D=
"ltr">"Both sides are right and both are wrong" sounds dialectical. It's fo=
reign-policy realism wearing a dialectical coat. Neither war nor diplomacy =
secures the aims of U.S. imperialism, sure. But that's not the same questio=
n as why the war fraction beat the diplomatic fraction this time. Diplomacy=
 didn't fail on its own terms. The coalition that tried to institutionalize=
 it lost.</p>
<p class=3D"font-claude-response-body break-words whitespace-normal" dir=3D=
"ltr">One place John is dead right, and it's the sentence I keep coming bac=
k to: the thundering silence of the union leadership. That's not a footnote=
. That's the condition of possibility for Bonapartist discretion going unco=
ntested at all. No organized proletarian pole, no friction on the executive=
. That's the thread worth pulling, not the neo-con genealogy, accurate as i=
t is, which still treats this as a family quarrel among strategists of empi=
re</p>
</div>
<div>--</div>
<div>Tony</div>


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