Poll shows Barghouti still most popular, sharp drop in Hamas support

The Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, widely regarded as the most credible polling agency in the West Bank and Gaza, has published its latest findings this month.

https://pcpsr.org/en/node/1014

According to the PCPSR, which has frequently come under fire from Israel, Hamas, and the Palestinian Authority dissatisfied with their polling results, the August survey "depicts a Palestinian public deeply dissatisfied with its political leadership and profoundly insecure, yet increasingly skeptical of the effectiveness of armed confrontation. The combination of declining support for Hamas, growing preference for negotiations, continued attachment to the 1967-based two-state framework, and strong opposition to Hamas disarmament before Israeli withdrawal suggests that Palestinians may be moving toward a more pragmatic conception of conflict resolution—but without abandoning core national demands or developing confidence in the political actors currently expected to deliver them."

The survey was conducted face-to-face with 830 respondents interviewed in the West Bank and 440 in the Gaza Strip.

The Center says that “upon completion of each interview, the data were automatically transmitted directly to our server, which can be accessed only by our researchers. There is no way for anyone to intercept or manipulate the collected data. To ensure the safety of our field researchers in the Gaza Strip, interviews with residents were conducted in areas west, south, and north of what has become known as the Yellow Line,' areas where there is no Israeli military presence. Interviews with residents of areas under Israeli military occupation, such as Rafah and parts of northern Gaza and Khan Younis, were conducted in shelters."

From the PCPSR website summarizing its main findings:

1. Palestinian Political Landscape: The survey points to continued dissatisfaction with the Palestinian political leadership, but also to a significant reshuffling of political preferences. Marwan Barghouti is the strongest potential successor to President Mahmoud Abbas, preferred by 39%, followed by Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya at 16%, Mohammed Dahlan at 15%, and Mustafa Barghouti at 6%. In a hypothetical presidential election, Marwan Barghouti would receive 54% from among the likely voters, al-Hayya 26%, and Abbas only 14%. At the same time, 79% want Abbas to resign, confirming the persistence of exceptionally high dissatisfaction with his leadership.

Hamas has also experienced a significant decline in popularity. Its overall support has fallen to 24%, compared with 35% ten months earlier, while Fatah remains at 24%. Among likely voters, Fatah would receive 32% and Hamas 29%, with third forces receiving 18%. Confidence in Hamas's ability to represent Palestinians has also declined, from 41% to 28%, while 44% now say that neither Hamas nor Fatah deserves to lead. These findings suggest that dissatisfaction is increasingly directed not toward one faction alone but toward the broader Palestinian political system.

2. Gaza War and the Trump Plan: The survey shows a major shift in perceptions of the Gaza war. Only 20% believe Hamas emerged victorious, 15% believe Israel did, and 60% believe neither side won. This represents a sharp decline in perceptions of a Hamas victory, particularly in the West Bank, where only 21% now see Hamas as victorious compared with 48% ten months earlier.

Despite this, 72% oppose Hamas disarming before Israel fully withdraws from Gaza, and the same percentage believe that disarmament would lead to renewed war rather than Israeli withdrawal. Public confidence in the institutions established under the Trump Plan is limited: only 24% trust the Board of Peace and 32% trust the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. Palestinians therefore appear receptive to an end to the war but skeptical about the proposed mechanisms for governing Gaza afterward.

Satisfaction with Hamas’s performance during the war has fallen sharply, from 60% to 42%, while satisfaction with Abbas stands at only 18%. Among regional actors, the Houthis receive the highest satisfaction at 61%, followed by Qatar at 51%, Hezbollah and Iran at 50%. Spain leads among international actors at 50%, followed by China at 40%, while satisfaction with Trump remains extremely low at 5%.

3. Domestic Conditions: Domestic insecurity and dissatisfaction with Palestinian governance remain pronounced. Only 23% feel personally and familiarly safe, while 76% feel unsafe. A striking 83% believe corruption exists within Palestinian Authority institutions, and 65% now describe the PA as a burden rather than an achievement. Most respondents also see little meaningful change resulting from the recent Fatah and Hamas leadership elections.

4. Palestinian-Israeli Relations and the Peace Process: Support for the two-state solution stands at 44%, while 50% oppose it—virtually unchanged from ten months earlier. Yet support for a specific two-state formula based on the 1967 borders is considerably higher, at 56%, including 61% in Gaza. Confederation receives 14% and a single democratic state with equal rights 10%. At the same time, 58% believe the two-state solution is no longer practical because of settlement expansion, and 64% see little or no chance of an independent Palestinian state emerging within five years.

There is nevertheless a notable shift in preferred strategies for achieving Palestinian statehood. Negotiations are now viewed as the most effective approach by 44%, up from 36% ten months earlier and the highest level in four years. Support for armed struggle has fallen from 41% to 27%, its lowest level in four years, while support for peaceful popular resistance has risen from 14% to 19%. However, Palestinians remain evenly divided over whether armed resistance has been effective, with 50% saying it has failed to protect Palestinians or end the occupation and 50% rejecting that assessment.

5. The US-Iran War: The recent US-Iran war has produced a distinctly favorable Palestinian orientation toward Iran: 45% say they sided with Iran, compared with only 12% who sided against it, while 40% sided with neither Iran nor the United States.

6. Palestinian Top Priorities: The survey reveals that statehood remains the leading national aspiration. Forty-three percent identify Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders and establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital as the Palestinian people's highest priority. Twenty-eight percent prioritize the right of return, 15% emphasize building a religious society based on Islamic teachings, and 11% prioritize democratic government and human rights.


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