Faster Global Warming Estimated

EpSil0n-// <[email protected]> Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:59:43 -0500 (CDT)
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4 degrees warming "likely" without CO2 cuts-study
Sun Sep 27, 2009 8:01pm EDT

* Global temperatures could rise 4 degrees by 2050s


By Gerard Wynn

LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Global temperatures may be 4 degrees Celsius 
hotter by the mid-2050s if current greenhouse gas emissions trends 
continue, said a study published on Monday.

The study, by Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre, echoed a U.N. report 
last week which found that climate changes were outpacing worst-case 
scenarios forecast in 2007 by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on 
Climate Change (IPCC). [ID:nN24360533]

"Our results are showing similar patterns (to the IPCC) but also show the 
possibility that more extreme changes can happen," said Debbie Hemming, 
co-author of the research published at the start of a climate change 
conference at Oxford University.

Leaders of the main greenhouse gas-emitting countries recognised in July a 
scientific view that temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees above 
pre-industrial levels, to avoid more dangerous changes to the world's 
climate. [ID:nL6368126]

The IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for its fourth assessment 
report, or AR4. One finding was that global temperatures could rise by 4 
degrees by the end of the 2050s. Monday's study confirmed that warming 
could happen even earlier, by the mid-2050s, and suggested more extreme 
local effects.

"It's affirming the AR4 results and also confirming that it is likely," 
Hemming told Reuters, referring to 4 degrees warming, assuming no extra 
global action to cut emissions in the next decade.

One advance since 2007 was to model the effect of "carbon cycles". For 
example, if parts of the Amazon rainforest died as a result of drought, 
that would expose soil which would then release carbon from formerly 
shaded organic matter.

"That amplifies the amount of carbon dioxide that goes into the atmosphere 
and therefore the global warming. It's really leading to more certainty," 
said Hemming.



DRASTIC

Some 190 countries will try to reach an agreement on how to slow global 
warming at a meeting in Copenhagen in December.

Chinese President Hu Jintao won praise for making a commitment to limit 
emissions growth by a "notable" amount, at a U.N. climate summit in New 
York last week. Other leaders made pledges to agree a new climate pact. 
[ID:nSP98073]

Temperature rises are compared with pre-industrial levels. The world 
warmed 0.7 degrees last century, scientists say.

A global average increase of 4 degrees masked higher regional increases, 
including more than 15 degrees warmer temperatures in parts of the Arctic, 
and up to 10 degrees higher in western and southern Africa, Monday's study 
found.

"It's quite extreme. I don't think it's hit home to people," said Hemming. 
As sea ice melts, the region will reflect less sunlight, which may help 
trigger runaway effects.

Such higher Arctic temperatures could also melt permafrost, which until 
now has trapped the powerful greenhouse gas methane, helping trigger 
further runaway effects, said Hemming.

"There are potentially quite big negative implications."

The study indicated rainfall may fall this century by a fifth or more in 
part of Africa, Central America, the Mediterranean, and coastal Australia, 
"potentially more extreme" than the IPCC's findings in 2007.

"The Mediterranean is a very consistent signal of significant drying in 
nearly all the model runs," said Hemming. A 20 percent or more fall is 
"quite a lot in areas like Spain already struggling with rainfall 
reductions in recent years."



  Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. Users may download and print 
extracts of content from this website for their own personal and 
non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson 
Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly 
prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson 
Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the 
Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.
Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which 
requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.


http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLP228193

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                  <p><br>
<br>
4 degrees warming &quot;likely&quot; without CO2 cuts-study<br>
Sun Sep 27, 2009 8:01pm EDT<br>
<br>
* Global temperatures could rise 4 degrees by 2050s<br>
<br>
By Gerard Wynn<br>
<br>
LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Global temperatures may be 4 degrees Celsius <br>
hotter by the mid-2050s if current greenhouse gas emissions trends <br>
continue, said a study published on Monday.<br>
<br>
The study, by Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre, echoed a U.N. report <br>
last week which found that climate changes were outpacing worst-case <br>
scenarios forecast in 2007 by the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on <br>
Climate Change (IPCC). [ID:nN24360533]<br>
<br>
&quot;Our results are showing similar patterns (to the IPCC) but also show the <br>
possibility that more extreme changes can happen,&quot; said Debbie Hemming, <br>
co-author of the research published at the start of a climate change <br>
conference at Oxford University.<br>
<br>
Leaders of the main greenhouse gas-emitting countries recognised in July a <br>
scientific view that temperatures should not exceed 2 degrees above <br>
pre-industrial levels, to avoid more dangerous changes to the world's <br>
climate. [ID:nL6368126]<br>
<br>
The IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for its fourth assessment <br>
report, or AR4. One finding was that global temperatures could rise by 4 <br>
degrees by the end of the 2050s. Monday's study confirmed that warming <br>
could happen even earlier, by the mid-2050s, and suggested more extreme <br>
local effects.<br>
<br>
&quot;It's affirming the AR4 results and also confirming that it is likely,&quot; <br>
Hemming told Reuters, referring to 4 degrees warming, assuming no extra <br>
global action to cut emissions in the next decade.<br>
<br>
One advance since 2007 was to model the effect of &quot;carbon cycles&quot;. For <br>
example, if parts of the Amazon rainforest died as a result of drought, <br>
that would expose soil which would then release carbon from formerly <br>
shaded organic matter.<br>
<br>
&quot;That amplifies the amount of carbon dioxide that goes into the atmosphere <br>
and therefore the global warming. It's really leading to more certainty,&quot; <br>
said Hemming.<br>
<br>
DRASTIC<br>
<br>
Some 190 countries will try to reach an agreement on how to slow global <br>
warming at a meeting in Copenhagen in December.<br>
<br>
Chinese President Hu Jintao won praise for making a commitment to limit <br>
emissions growth by a &quot;notable&quot; amount, at a U.N. climate summit in New <br>
York last week. Other leaders made pledges to agree a new climate pact. <br>
[ID:nSP98073]<br>
<br>
Temperature rises are compared with pre-industrial levels. The world <br>
warmed 0.7 degrees last century, scientists say.<br>
<br>
A global average increase of 4 degrees masked higher regional increases, <br>
including more than 15 degrees warmer temperatures in parts of the Arctic, <br>
and up to 10 degrees higher in western and southern Africa, Monday's study <br>
found.<br>
<br>
&quot;It's quite extreme. I don't think it's hit home to people,&quot; said Hemming. <br>
As sea ice melts, the region will reflect less sunlight, which may help <br>
trigger runaway effects.<br>
<br>
Such higher Arctic temperatures could also melt permafrost, which until <br>
now has trapped the powerful greenhouse gas methane, helping trigger <br>
further runaway effects, said Hemming.<br>
<br>
&quot;There are potentially quite big negative implications.<wbr>&quot;<br>
<br>
The study indicated rainfall may fall this century by a fifth or more in <br>
part of Africa, Central America, the Mediterranean, and coastal Australia, <br>
&quot;potentially more extreme&quot; than the IPCC's findings in 2007.<br>
<br>
&quot;The Mediterranean is a very consistent signal of significant drying in <br>
nearly all the model runs,&quot; said Hemming. A 20 percent or more fall is <br>
&quot;quite a lot in areas like Spain already struggling with rainfall <br>
reductions in recent years.&quot;<br>
<br>
Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved. Users may download and print <br>
extracts of content from this website for their own personal and <br>
non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson <br>
Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly <br>
prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson <br>
Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the <br>
Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.<br>
Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which <br>
requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.<br>
<br>
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSLP228193">http://www.reuters.<wbr>com/article/<wbr>latestCrisis/<wbr>idUSLP228193</a><br>
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