Climate Myths and Facts
EpSil0n-// <[email protected]> Tue, 5 Jan 2010 16:42:15 -0600 (CST)
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Climate Change Myths and Facts
By Chris Mooney
Saturday, March 21, 2009
A recent controversy over claims about climate science by Post op-ed
columnist George F. Will raises a critical question: Can we ever know, on
any contentious or politicized topic, how to recognize the real
conclusions of science and how to distinguish them from
scientific-sounding spin or misinformation?
Congress will soon consider global-warming legislation, and the debate
comes as contradictory claims about climate science abound. Partisans of
this issue often wield vastly different facts and sometimes seem to even
live in different realities.
In this context, finding common ground will be very difficult. Perhaps the
only hope involves taking a stand for a breed of journalism and commentary
that is not permitted to simply say anything; that is constrained by
standards of evidence, rigor and reproducibility that are similar to the
canons of modern science itself.
Consider a few of Will's claims from his Feb. 15 column, "Dark Green
Doomsayers": In a long paragraph quoting press sources from the 1970s,
Will suggested that widespread scientific agreement existed at the time
that the world faced potentially catastrophic cooling. Today, most climate
scientists and climate journalists consider this a timeworn myth. Just
last year, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society published a
peer-reviewed study examining media coverage at the time and the
contemporary scientific literature. While some media accounts did hype a
cooling scare, others suggested more reasons to be concerned about
warming. As for the published science? Reviewing studies between 1965 and
1979, the authors found that "emphasis on greenhouse warming dominated the
scientific literature even then."
Yet there's a bigger issue: It's misleading to draw a parallel between
"global cooling" concerns articulated in the 1970s and global warming
concerns today. In the 1970s, the field of climate research was in a
comparatively fledgling state, and scientific understanding of
20th-century temperature trends and their causes was far less settled.
Today, in contrast, hundreds of scientists worldwide participate in
assessments of the state of knowledge and have repeatedly ratified the
conclusion that human activities are driving global warming -- through the
U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific academies
of various nations (including our own), and leading scientific
organizations such as the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological
Society.
Will wrote that "according to the University of Illinois' Arctic Climate
Research Center, global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979." It turns
out to be a relatively meaningless comparison, though the Arctic Climate
Research Center has clarified that global sea ice extent was "1.34 million
sq. km less in February 2009 than in February 1979." Again, though,
there's a bigger issue: Will's focus on "global" sea ice at two
arbitrarily selected points of time is a distraction. Scientists pay heed
to long-term trends in sea ice, not snapshots in a noisy system. And while
they expect global warming to reduce summer Arctic sea ice, the global
picture is a more complicated matter; it's not as clear what ought to
happen in the Southern Hemisphere. But summer Arctic sea ice is indeed
trending downward, in line with climatologists' expectations -- according
to the Arctic Climate Research Center.
Will also wrote that "according to the U.N. World Meteorological
Organization, there has been no recorded global warming for more than a
decade." The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is one of many
respected scientific institutions that support the consensus that humans
are driving global warming. Will probably meant that since 1998 was the
warmest year on record according to the WMO -- NASA, in contrast, believes
that that honor goes to 2005 -- we haven't had any global warming since.
Yet such sleight of hand would lead to the conclusion that "global
cooling" sets in immediately after every new record temperature year, no
matter how frequently those hot years arrive or the hotness of the years
surrounding them. Climate scientists, knowing that any single year may
trend warmer or cooler for a variety of reasons -- 1998, for instance,
featured an extremely strong El Nio -- study globally averaged
temperatures over time. To them, it's far more relevant that out of the 10
warmest years on record, at least seven have occurred in the 2000s --
again, according to the WMO.
Readers and commentators must learn to share some practices with
scientists -- following up on sources, taking scientific knowledge
seriously rather than cherry-picking misleading bits of information, and
applying critical thinking to the weighing of evidence. That, in the end,
is all that good science really is. It's also what good journalism and
commentary alike must strive to be -- now more than ever.
Chris Mooney is the author of "The Republican War on Science" and
co-author of the forthcoming "Unscientific America: How Scientific
Illiteracy Threatens Our Future."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/20/AR2009032002660_pf.html
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<p><br>
Climate Change Myths and Facts<br>
<br>
By Chris Mooney<br>
Saturday, March 21, 2009<br>
<br>
A recent controversy over claims about climate science by Post op-ed <br>
columnist George F. Will raises a critical question: Can we ever know, on <br>
any contentious or politicized topic, how to recognize the real <br>
conclusions of science and how to distinguish them from <br>
scientific-sounding spin or misinformation?<br>
<br>
Congress will soon consider global-warming legislation, and the debate <br>
comes as contradictory claims about climate science abound. Partisans of <br>
this issue often wield vastly different facts and sometimes seem to even <br>
live in different realities.<br>
<br>
In this context, finding common ground will be very difficult. Perhaps the <br>
only hope involves taking a stand for a breed of journalism and commentary <br>
that is not permitted to simply say anything; that is constrained by <br>
standards of evidence, rigor and reproducibility that are similar to the <br>
canons of modern science itself.<br>
<br>
Consider a few of Will's claims from his Feb. 15 column, "Dark Green <br>
Doomsayers": In a long paragraph quoting press sources from the 1970s, <br>
Will suggested that widespread scientific agreement existed at the time <br>
that the world faced potentially catastrophic cooling. Today, most climate <br>
scientists and climate journalists consider this a timeworn myth. Just <br>
last year, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society published a <br>
peer-reviewed study examining media coverage at the time and the <br>
contemporary scientific literature. While some media accounts did hype a <br>
cooling scare, others suggested more reasons to be concerned about <br>
warming. As for the published science? Reviewing studies between 1965 and <br>
1979, the authors found that "emphasis on greenhouse warming dominated the <br>
scientific literature even then."<br>
<br>
Yet there's a bigger issue: It's misleading to draw a parallel between <br>
"global cooling" concerns articulated in the 1970s and global warming <br>
concerns today. In the 1970s, the field of climate research was in a <br>
comparatively fledgling state, and scientific understanding of <br>
20th-century temperature trends and their causes was far less settled. <br>
Today, in contrast, hundreds of scientists worldwide participate in <br>
assessments of the state of knowledge and have repeatedly ratified the <br>
conclusion that human activities are driving global warming -- through the <br>
U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the scientific academies <br>
of various nations (including our own), and leading scientific <br>
organizations such as the American Association for the Advancement of <br>
Science, the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological <br>
Society.<br>
<br>
Will wrote that "according to the University of Illinois' Arctic Climate <br>
Research Center, global sea ice levels now equal those of 1979." It turns <br>
out to be a relatively meaningless comparison, though the Arctic Climate <br>
Research Center has clarified that global sea ice extent was "1.34 million <br>
sq. km less in February 2009 than in February 1979." Again, though, <br>
there's a bigger issue: Will's focus on "global" sea ice at two <br>
arbitrarily selected points of time is a distraction. Scientists pay heed <br>
to long-term trends in sea ice, not snapshots in a noisy system. And while <br>
they expect global warming to reduce summer Arctic sea ice, the global <br>
picture is a more complicated matter; it's not as clear what ought to <br>
happen in the Southern Hemisphere. But summer Arctic sea ice is indeed <br>
trending downward, in line with climatologists' expectations -- according <br>
to the Arctic Climate Research Center.<br>
<br>
Will also wrote that "according to the U.N. World Meteorological <br>
Organization, there has been no recorded global warming for more than a <br>
decade." The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is one of many <br>
respected scientific institutions that support the consensus that humans <br>
are driving global warming. Will probably meant that since 1998 was the <br>
warmest year on record according to the WMO -- NASA, in contrast, believes <br>
that that honor goes to 2005 -- we haven't had any global warming since. <br>
Yet such sleight of hand would lead to the conclusion that "global <br>
cooling" sets in immediately after every new record temperature year, no <br>
matter how frequently those hot years arrive or the hotness of the years <br>
surrounding them. Climate scientists, knowing that any single year may <br>
trend warmer or cooler for a variety of reasons -- 1998, for instance, <br>
featured an extremely strong El Nio -- study globally averaged <br>
temperatures over time. To them, it's far more relevant that out of the 10 <br>
warmest years on record, at least seven have occurred in the 2000s -- <br>
again, according to the WMO.<br>
<br>
Readers and commentators must learn to share some practices with <br>
scientists -- following up on sources, taking scientific knowledge <br>
seriously rather than cherry-picking misleading bits of information, and <br>
applying critical thinking to the weighing of evidence. That, in the end, <br>
is all that good science really is. It's also what good journalism and <br>
commentary alike must strive to be -- now more than ever.<br>
<br>
Chris Mooney is the author of "The Republican War on Science" and <br>
co-author of the forthcoming "Unscientific America: How Scientific <br>
Illiteracy Threatens Our Future."<br>
<br>
<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/20/AR2009032002660_pf.html">http://www.washingt<wbr>onpost.com/<wbr>wp-dyn/content/<wbr>article/2009/<wbr>03/20/AR20090320<wbr>02660_pf.<wbr>html</a><br>
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