Long Term Unemployment Bust
EpSil0n-// <[email protected]> Thu, 18 Feb 2010 18:18:15 -0600 (CST)
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From First Things: The Long Term Employment Bust
February 18th, 2010
By David Goldman
Over at FIrst Things On the Square blog, I have an essay this morning
dissecting the employment data and finding no grounds for optimism. An
extract:
During the 1980s, cellular phones, cable television, and other new
technologies were an important source of new job growth. During the 1990s,
the tech boom funded tens of thousands of startups, and during the 2000s,
the real estate boom. Every deadbeat could get a job in the 1980s
installing cable TVs, and every starving artist became a real estate agent
during the 2000s.
For the past fifteen years, the American economy has been geared to
invest inflows of foreign capital in the household balance sheet, using
the proceeds to import goods from the countries who lent us the money.
That came to a bad end in 2007. All the employment associated with
investing foreign savings and spending the proceedsreal estate sales,
mortgage banking, retail trade, and so forthis no longer required. With a
rapidly aging population, America will see less residential investment and
more savings. America should be investing in high-value-added
manufacturing and exporting. That would help Americas balance sheet, but
it wont do much for aging, semi-skilled workers who are too old to learn a
completely new trade. Nor, as noted, will manufacturing in the best of
cases create many new jobs.
There is some analogy to the Great Depression in the present
situation. Between 1918 and 1939, American agriculture was in permanent
decline, because the end of the First World War reduced demand for
American exports, and because the substitution of the tractor for draught
animals freed up an enormous amount of land set aside for animal feed.
There was nothing to be done but to get the farmers off the land into
other occupations, and that was not accomplished until the Second World
War.
http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1361
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<p><br>
From First Things: The Long Term Employment Bust<br>
February 18th, 2010<br>
By David Goldman<br>
<br>
Over at FIrst Things On the Square blog, I have an essay this morning <br>
dissecting the employment data and finding no grounds for optimism. An <br>
extract:<br>
<br>
During the 1980s, cellular phones, cable television, and other new <br>
technologies were an important source of new job growth. During the 1990s, <br>
the tech boom funded tens of thousands of startups, and during the 2000s, <br>
the real estate boom. Every deadbeat could get a job in the 1980s <br>
installing cable TVs, and every starving artist became a real estate agent <br>
during the 2000s.<br>
<br>
For the past fifteen years, the American economy has been geared to <br>
invest inflows of foreign capital in the household balance sheet, using <br>
the proceeds to import goods from the countries who lent us the money. <br>
That came to a bad end in 2007. All the employment associated with <br>
investing foreign savings and spending the proceedsreal estate sales, <br>
mortgage banking, retail trade, and so forthis no longer required. With a <br>
rapidly aging population, America will see less residential investment and <br>
more savings. America should be investing in high-value-added <br>
manufacturing and exporting. That would help Americas balance sheet, but <br>
it wont do much for aging, semi-skilled workers who are too old to learn a <br>
completely new trade. Nor, as noted, will manufacturing in the best of <br>
cases create many new jobs.<br>
<br>
There is some analogy to the Great Depression in the present <br>
situation. Between 1918 and 1939, American agriculture was in permanent <br>
decline, because the end of the First World War reduced demand for <br>
American exports, and because the substitution of the tractor for draught <br>
animals freed up an enormous amount of land set aside for animal feed. <br>
There was nothing to be done but to get the farmers off the land into <br>
other occupations, and that was not accomplished until the Second World <br>
War.<br>
<br>
<a href="http://blog.atimes.net/?p=1361">http://blog.<wbr>atimes.net/<wbr>?p=1361</a><br>
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