[AlbClub] A Moment of Truth for Serbia

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Dear Balkan Watch subscriber:

Below is an op-ed, "A Moment of Truth for Serbia," written by PILPG
affiliated expert Morton Abramowitz for *Newsweek* (March 24, 2008 issue).
Ambassador Abramowitz's piece addresses the West's relationship with Serbia
and how it is important for the United States and its European Union allies
to collaborate to keep the country on the path toward EU membership.

The op-ed is critical of the current Serbian government under Prime Minister
Vojislav Kostunica, remarking that it is effectively partitioning northern
Kosovo and leading Serbia toward confrontation with Kosovo's independent
government and the EU mission that will oversee it.  The upcoming elections
will present the Serbian people a critical choice between nationalist
isolationism and European integration.  Abramowitz states that the United
States and its EU allies must not allow Serbia nor Russia the ability to
undermine the newly-independent Kosovo.

Thank you,

John Sannar

________________________________________

*A Moment Of Truth For Serbia*

*The West must convey to the Serbian people what is at stake and the dangers
of making the wrong choice.*

*Morton Abramowitz*

*NEWSWEEK*

Updated: 10:48 AM ET Mar 15, 2008

It is rare for a small country to take on the European Union and the United
States. But that is precisely what Serbia is doing. With the support of
extreme nationalist parties, Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has made
Kosovo the defining issue of today's Serbia, and is trying to reverse the
independence of Kosovo and reassert Serbian control.

Over the last month the Kostunica-led government has carried on an enormous
diplomatic effort to prevent other states from recognizing Kosovo's
independence, and they are leaning on other nations to revoke their
recognition. Kostunica has also told Kosovo Serbs to cease cooperation with
the new government and the EU mission. Worse still: he is trying to cement
Serbian control over the northern portion of Kosovo—in effect partitioning
Kosovo, without recognizing the independence of the remainder. In so doing,
the nationalist Serbian leadership has committed its country to
confrontation with both Kosovo and the EU mission that guides and oversees
it.

In rejecting Kosovo's independence, Serbia's leaders are railing against the
tide of history. Kosovo's independence ended a long, rocky history of
Serbian rule, which exploded in 1999, when Serbian forces expelled 800,000
members of Kosovo's ethnic Albanian majority. Serbian forces were driven out
of Kosovo by a sustained NATO bombardment. Many Serbs, perhaps most,
reluctantly and painfully, recognized that Kosovo was no longer part of
their country. After the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, the new
Serbian leader, Zoran Djindjic, recognized that Kosovo was a thorny domestic
political problem, but that the province's status had to be resolved once
and for all if Serbia were to be transformed. Unfortunately, Djindjic was
assassinated in 2003 by virulent Serbian nationalists before he could make a
move on the Kosovo issue.

Taking his place was Kostunica, who had also participated in efforts to
overthrow Milosevic. He was greeted by American and European leaders as a
savior, a democrat dedicated to the law who would guide Serbia along a
European trajectory. But Kostunica turned out to be a fierce 19th-century
nationalist, far more an ideological adherent to the cause than the
opportunistic Milosevic, and he was committed to doing whatever was
necessary to maintain Serbian sovereignty over Kosovo. Specifically, he
wanted the territory of Kosovo but not its people, and he created a
political environment in which opposition voices fear for their safety. All
the while, Moscow stood at his side, preventing the Security Council from
adopting the U.N. plan for Kosovo's independence. And in recent days, he has
been remarkably successful at convincing a number of countries that the U.N.
resolution that ended the NATO war provides for Serbian sovereignty over
Kosovo indefinitely. It does not, nor does it preclude Kosovo's
independence. Yet the West has failed to marshal its own forces to refute
Kostunica's claim and persuade many fence-sitters to recognize Kosovo's
independence. Other countries have withheld recognition, fearing it would
encourage independence movements within their borders.

Now it is decision time for the Serbian people. This month Serbia's bitterly
divided coalition government broke down over differences over Kosovo and the
country's ties to the EU. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for May.
Kostunica is prepared to forsake the EU for Kosovo, but Serbian President
Boris Tadic, whose party was Kostunica's principal partner in the defunct
coalition, professes to believe that somehow Serbia will keep Kosovo and
still pursue EU membership. The EU is encouraging this posture, hoping his
party can form a coalition government, sign agreements with the EU and over
time abandon its dedication to keeping Kosovo. But initial polling indicates
Tadic will have difficulty putting together a new coalition, and the
elections may well produce a backward-looking nationalist coalition, a very
weak coalition or both.

Serbs will have to decide whether they will continue to follow their
fiercely nationalist leadership into greater international isolation,
forsaking growth and integration into Europe, or side with the more
Westward-looking opposition. In this defining moment the West must somehow
convey to the Serbian people how much is at stake and the danger of making
the wrong choice. The West must circumvent Belgrade's nationalist
politicians and make clear to the Serbian people that there is another path,
another future for them as a real democracy. Our message must be: "We feel
your loss; there was no practical alternative. Your nationalist leaders are
leading you into oblivion, and you belong in Europe."

At the same time, the EU and the United States must work together to
preserve Kosovo's stability, prevent violence and partition, secure greater
international recognition of Kosovo and help it become a working state.
Doing otherwise would severely damage Western credibility and threaten wider
Balkan instability and the European order. While always holding out an olive
branch, the West must not permit Serbia and Russia to undermine an
independent Kosovo, or use Kosovo as an excuse to forestall Serbia's—and
Kosovo's—development into healthy European states.

URL: http://www.newsweek.com/id/123448

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