What's New Robert L. Park 14 May 2011

WHAT=92S NEW   Robert L. Park   Friday, 13 May 2011   Washington, DC

1. VERHULST EQUATION: BEWARE OF A STABLE POPULATION.
A kindly Vicar in rural Surry, the Reverend Robert Thomas Malthus was the=
=20
first to solve the population equation.  In 1798, dismayed by the=20
inevitable consequences of exponential growth, he published An Essay on t=
he=20
Principle of Population anonymously.  It went on to become one of the mos=
t=20
important books of all time, and he added his name to subsequent editions=
. =20
Forty years later, a Belgian mathematician, Pierre-Francois Verhulst, add=
ed=20
a term to the Malthus differential equation to reflect the finite "carryi=
ng=20
capacity," or the number of individuals an environment can support.  Ther=
e=20
are only two ways to stabilize the population: reduce the fertility rate,=
=20
or shorten life expectancy.  A believer in human perfectibility, Malthus=20
elected to reduce fertility by abstinence =97 he didn't get many follower=
s. =20
But today we have the Pill, the development of which must in the long run=
=20
be the most important technological advance of all time.  A week ago, the=
=20
UN released a new world-population projection that reaches 10 billion in=20
2100.  That's one billion more than it projected just three years ago.  H=
ow=20
much confidence can you have in a 90 year projection if you're off by 15%=
=20
in the first three years?  From a policy standpoint, it really doesn't=20
matter.  The urgent task is to reduce the fertility rate as much as=20
possible.  The world is already so far beyond sustainable that we needn't=
=20
worry about overshooting.  Huge cultural/religious obstacles remain,=20
particularly in Africa, where Nigeria is expected to surpass the United=20
States as the third most populous nation in the world.  There is already =
a=20
serious shortage of fresh water, phosphate rock, and fuel for mechanizati=
on=20
to sustain the green revolution.  There will not be another green=20
revolution.

2. RADIATION: DO CELL PHONES OPERATE IN THE CLASSICAL WAVE LIMIT? =20
Of course they do, that's the whole point.  That's why they can't cause=20
cancer.  I promised last week that I would try to look into the concerns=20
raised by Bill Bruno, a Los Alamos physicist.  However, it does not seem =
to=20
be a scientific issue.  I was unable to find a scientific forum in which=20
Bruno has raised his concerns.  In a letter to the Santa Fe New Mexican h=
e=20
describes his personal health problems, which are typical of the conditio=
n=20
usually referred to as "electro-sensitivity" or "electromagnetic=20
hypersensitivity."  According to a 2005 scientific review "the symptoms=20
described by 'electromagnetic hypersensitivity' sufferers can be severe a=
nd=20
are sometimes disabling. However, it has proved difficult to show under=20
blind conditions that exposure to electromagnetic fields can trigger thes=
e=20
symptoms. This suggests that 'electromagnetic hypersensitivity' is=20
unrelated to the presence of electromagnetic fields, although more resear=
ch=20
is required."  Psychosomatic Medicine 67 (2): 224=9632.

3. ALTERNATIVES: THE NEW MEDICINE IS JUST THE OLD MEDICINE.
In the fog of war, a severely wounded soldier calls out in agony for=20
morphine.  A medic braves enemy fire to reach the injured soldier, but=20
wait, that's not a hypodermic needle he's inserting, it's an acupuncture=20
needle.  In Kenya, a 27-year-old man with third-stage HIV is concerned=20
about side effects from antiretroviral drugs.  Not to worry, the doctor h=
as=20
decided to start him on course of homeopathic medicines.  Next week we=92=
ll=20
discuss what isn't happening in alternative medicine, and why. =20

THE UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND.
Opinions are the author's and not necessarily shared by the
University of Maryland, but they should be.
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