Re: Re: [ERPS First Torrino Scale 2 object...]

Andrew Tubbiolo wrote:

>Sean R. Lynch said:
>
>  
>
>>Neodys
>><http://newton.dm.unipi.it/cgi-bin/neodys/neoibo?objects:2004MN4;main>
>>shows 55 observations over the same span, though the impactor table says
>>35. It also shows a higher probability of impact (0.593% instead of
>>0.34%).
>>
>>    
>>
>
>   Some observatories return better astrometry than others. The MPC
>reports all valid observations submitted, but Andrea Botinni probably
>threw a few more uncertian observations to reduce the overall error
>bars. Arc is more important than the number of observations. With 6
>months of arc, this solution looks a lot better than the typical two
>weeks or less I have seen in the past.
>
>   In the past when Botinni has requested followup on 'interesting'
>objects, the impact solutions have rarely survived the night, and
>almost never more than 3 nights in my experience. We'll see....
>
>  
>
>>Anything with a positive Palermo scale value is "interesting." I could
>>care less about the Torino scale  :)
>>    
>>
>
>   At close to 2 GT of TNT, it would be a pretty good show. My bet is this
>object will make another flyby ala 2002 NY40. Either way it will be
>fun.
>
>   So has anybody run an orbit on this? Which continent/ocean lies in the
>impact trajectory?
>  
>
Given the time of projected impact (21:21 UTC), that puts it over the 
Pacific Ocean and Asia.

With more observations, the impatc probability has now gone UP to 1.6%, 
putting it over one on the Palermo scale. If I'm not mistaken, that's 
10x the background risk.

Tsunamis in Silicon Valley, anyone?

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