Europe flirts with a continent-wide war

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy may believe he has reason for  =

satisfaction at the drone attack he carried out deep inside on airfields=
  =

in the Russian Federation=E2=80=99s European part. The sophistication of=
 the  =

attack betrays the involvement of another country in its planning, and t=
he  =

information is that it is Britain. Tactically, the attack was brilliant =
 =

and flawless.

https://sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/europe-flirts-with-a-continent-wi=
de-war

The Russians were caught by surprise, even as they made the inexcusable =
 =

error of exposing long distance strategic bombers in the open rather tha=
n  =

in well covered and protected locations. The Russian aircraft were in th=
e  =

open possibly because of the New START Treaty of 2010 between Russia and=
  =

the US, according to which such bombers have to be in the open for  =

verification purposes. Zelenskyy may have torn up the New Start Treaty b=
y  =

such a breach of faith. Such bombers were not needed for an attack on  =

Ukraine, a country which borders the Russian Federation.

They were meant for targets much farther away, including Britain and  =

France. Once again, Ukraine has been used as a sacrificial pawn to serve=
  =

the military interests of the major European powers in NATO. As for the =
 =

country that Zelenskyy rules much after his legal term in office is over=
,  =

it has provided ample justification for a substantial Russian riposte.

Vladmir Putin has been caught flat footed, and in the labyrinthine,  =

ruthless world of Russian power politics, any impression of weakness may=
  =

turn out to be terminal. As for Putin, he appears to have considerably  =

mellowed from what he had earlier been, when he ensured the separation o=
f  =

the Russian-speaking parts of Georgia and later, Ukraine. He appears to =
be  =

in thrall to a cautious Kremlin bureaucracy, holding back his possible  =

punches at displays of NATO, sorry Ukrainian, audacity. In these days of=
  =

advanced drones and missiles, was destroying some manned aircraft that  =

were close to obsolescence worth it for Ukraine? Was the media publicity=
  =

and deserved adulation at his attack worth the risk for Ukraine? It was =
 =

not, but the former comedian has remained committed to the script handed=
  =

over to him by his NATO paymasters, just as he has been during his caree=
r  =

as a superstar in comedy. From making audiences weep with laughter throu=
gh  =

comedy acts, Zelenskyy is now acting out a tragedy for the Ukrainian  =

people, not to mention the Russian population, by his relentless  =

prosecution of a war that he cannot reasonably expect to win.

Meanwhile, Starmer, Macron, Merz and Von der Leyen may luxuriate in the =
 =

belief that the Russian bear has been weakened, which indeed it has. The=
  =

difficulty is that directing through their proxy Zelenskyy the attack on=
  =

Russian airfields may have resulted in a Pearl Harbour moment for the  =

master of the Kremlin. Just as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in  =

1941 made US entry into World War II, the attack and destruction of  =

several Russian bombers may have made a disproportionate response from  =

Russia inevitable. And no longer just in Ukraine but inside a NATO count=
ry  =

as well. Not Poland anymore, now that a Conservative has been elected  =

President, who is likely to join hands with Orban in Hungary to press fo=
r  =

an exit from the Ukraine war, but more likely one of the Baltic states, =
 =

that have emerged as much a champion of the war as the Starmer-MacronMer=
z  =

trio. Indeed, the group of 9 Nordic countries has called for the immedia=
te  =

entry of Ukraine into NATO.

Even though they may believe the Russian bear under Putin has been tamed=
,  =

and war between Russia and NATO is therefore impossible, it may be  =

possible that Putin will firm up his stance, given the multiple  =

provocations flung in his direction by the alliance. It has been pointed=
  =

out several times by this columnist that had the USSR had the spirit to =
 =

attack Taliban bases in Pakistan, the war in Afghanistan would not have =
 =

proved the disaster it became for the Soviets. Should a high-performance=
  =

Russian missile land in a Baltic country (according to the media narrati=
ve  =

but not official comment immediately put out by the Kremlin,  =

=E2=80=9Caccidentally=E2=80=9D), it would be the moment of truth for the=
 pro-war group  =

within NATO, excluding the US now that Trump is the President. Would  =

Starmer, Macron and Merz declare war on Russia in the textbook manner  =

prescribed for NATO?

What would voters in the UK, France and Germany think of such a complete=
  =

change in the circumstances of war and make their respective countries  =

direct participants in the war that has been ongoing since 2022? NATO ha=
s  =

never fought a war in Europe, and has had a less than stellar record in =
 =

the wars it has been engaged in Asia and Africa. Article 5 of NATO has  =

been torn to shreds since President Trump indicated that the US was not =
 =

willing to join in a war with Russia over Ukraine, a country which was  =

once part of the USSR to no apparent detriment to the European countries=
  =

in NATO.

Russian strategists know that the destruction of much of its long-range =
 =

bombers by an attack scripted elsewhere than in Ukraine is a Pearl Harbo=
ur  =

moment for Putin. If he were to give a less than wholly disproportionate=
  =

response to the attack, it would be a matter of time before he is edged =
 =

out of the Kremlin. Voters have no use for Putin Noveau, they want Putin=
  =

to remain what he was until recently. Both the people of Ukraine and  =

Russia want an end to the war. The only way to end it may be to call wha=
t  =

several in Russia believe to be the bluff of NATO, that even the  =

=E2=80=9CCoalition of the Willing=E2=80=9D in Ukraine is ready for a kin=
etic war against  =

the Russian Federation.

Pearl Harbour was a tactical victory for Japan but a strategic disaster =
 =

for wartime Japan. In much the same way, the brilliant and successful  =

attack on Russian air bases deep inside the European part of Russia may =
 =

turn out to be so for the Ukrainians, now facing a disproportionate atta=
ck  =

 from Russia, and perhaps not just them.

### - was looking around for something that expressed my own concerns bu=
t  =

not finding anything that wasn't heavily laced/spun with propaganda from=
  =

both nato and ukraine, and then came across the above in an indian  =

outlet...

and because it looks like the uk 'has' now kinda declared war on russia?=
  =

we were only loudly complaining before while helping from behind the  =

scenes, but this mass attack was clearly successful only with nato  =

assistance, russia placed in the position of having to do something abou=
t  =

it: their 'pearl-harbor' moment then as this above article suggests -  =

something that changes the whole scope and range of the war; the proxies=
  =

behind ukraine becoming less proxy and more open with a 40-billion+ blow=
  =

to russia's long range bombers; aircraft designed for a different theate=
r  =

of war altogether, it being difficult to see/imagine russia not doing  =

something more severe now as a warning to nato to back-off?

something obviously discussed with trump, making him comment that the  =

expected retaliation "wont be pretty" - it being unlikely they'd use  =

nukes, even tiny ones, but a rap on nato's knuckles is now due and russi=
a  =

isn't fucking about - they're gonna SAY something!

not in words...

and that's scary!