Re: Interesting - Ukraine Missiles Use Open Source, Russians Use Pi-4s

rbowman <[email protected]> wrote:
> On Mon, 20 Jul 2026 20:21:32 -0000 (UTC), Rich wrote:
> 
>> Plus, if the "drone defence" is firing anything that is more costly to
>> build than the drone itself, then there is a significant asymetric cost
>> factor applied to the defender as well.
> 
> They are more flying sewer pipes than drones but taking out a $500 Qassam 
> rocket with a $50,000 Tamir missile is asymmetric. A Qassam can't hit the 
> proverbial broad side of a barn but it might get lucky and hit something 
> other than a sheep so they can't be ignored. 
> 
> Something that might actually hit a HVT ups the game considerably.

Yeah, if the accuracy increases (and it does not need to increase much 
to become a real danger) that very much changes things.

But even so, at a 100:1 cost ratio, someone can lob 100 Qassam rockets 
towards a single target for the price of one Tamir missle.  Even if the 
Tamir could somehow take out 99 of the Qassam's (it can't) that still 
leaves one that will explode somewhere the defender really does not 
want explosions happening.

If two Tamir's are used against the swarm, then the swarm could be 200 
large before it again cost the same as the two missles.  And two 
missles won't take out all 200 incoming, so still, one or more 
explosions somewhere you'd rather not have any explosions.

The "swarm offense" with cheap weapons creates a very different 
battlefield than the traditional one where both sides are lobbing 
ordinance at roughly the same rate and roughly the same cost per lob.