Forecasting decisions in conflicts using analogies

Dear All

I am conducting research on methods for forecasting decisions in conflicts. 
Are any of you aware of any empirical evidence on the accuracy of forecasts 
of decisions in conflicts from using analogies, relative to the accuracy of 
forecasts from other methods?

Can anyone provide me with or direct me to a description of the CBR method?

Best regards
Kesten Green
[email protected]