Forecasting decisions in conflicts using analogies

Dear All

I realised after sending my earlier message (repeated below) that I had not 
asked people to respond to me, rather than the list, as I'm not a member of 
the list. Would anyone who has written to the list in response to my query 
please kindly resend their message to [email protected].

Best regards
Kesten Green

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I am conducting research on methods for forecasting decisions in conflicts. 
Are any of you aware of any empirical evidence on the accuracy of forecasts 
of decisions in conflicts from using analogies, relative to the accuracy of 
forecasts from other methods?

Can anyone provide me with or direct me to a description of the CBR method?

Best regards
Kesten Green
[email protected]