Re: Our "publish then filter" future...

  From: Jon Noring 


  Everyone,

  It is interesting to note that since the founding of this group twelve
  years ago, we continue to discuss the topic of "vanity/subsidy/self"
  vs. "real" publishers. (Note, I don't want to get into another
  discussion of the fine distinctions and variants of "publishers" --
  that is being discussed in related threads.)

  About ten years ago I floated the prediction in this group that
  sometime in the future, as 1) e-books became mainstream, 2) publishing
  tools for the masses became inexpensive and ubiquitous, and 3) the
  Internet matured allowing rapid dissemination, we would see dramatic
  changes in the book publishing model.

  Specifically, I held to the view that as the traditional "gatekeepers"
  disappeared (since technological advances would render their purpose
  moot), we'd see the dominant publishing model for all types of
  textual content to naturally switch from the "filter then publish" to
  the "publish then filter" model.

  Indeed, with the rise of print-on-demand (POD), which is a sort of
  bridge between our p-book past and our e-book future, we are seeing a
  large number of new authors choosing to self-publish (some with the
  help of non-traditional "publishers" who essentially act as a
  "work-for-hire" agent to assist with some of the steps to make an
  author's book available to the public.)

  It should come as no surprise, then, that I am not swayed by the
  arguments of the "traditional publisher" camp of e-book publishers.
  This camp says that since the traditional model "works", that this
  model should be, will be, and must be, essentially preserved in
  our e-book future.

  And many of this camp have put their beliefs into action, setting up
  publishing houses in the traditional model where they take submissions
  of manuscripts (the "slush pile") and for any they see merit will then
  carry it through the entire process: editing, production, release, and
  marketing. Some even pay advances on royalties like many traditional
  paper book publishers do. All the power to them, of course!

  In my opinion, it doesn't matter what the "traditional" proponents
  may try to say, though, since the dynamics of the publishing
  marketplace are naturally moving, like a freight train, towards the
  "publish then filter" model. It is a foregone conclusion. To say the
  future will be like the past is like spitting in the wind (pardon me
  for being so graphic!)

  Before the reader may misinterpet what I just said, note that I still
  believe readers will need a "filter" to find, among the zillions of
  published books, what they want to read -- books which meet their
  expectations. With such huge numbers of titles available to them, the
  reader will get completely overwhelmed unless they are provided with
  the tools they need to filter through the pile to make a buying
  decision. Without such tools, they will end up buying books only from
  the few well-known major publishers which they recognize, such as
  Random House, S&S, etc.

  Not only that, the sheer number of titles is making it much more
  difficult for the works produced by the smaller "traditional"
  publishers to even be seen -- their marketing call saying that "we
  only pick the finest books to publish" is getting lost in the noise,
  especially in that most readers won't even recognize the publisher
  ("yes, I know 'Random House', but who are you?") Most self-published
  authors usually set-up their own "publishing house" name anyway,
  making it very difficult for the traditional e-book publishers to
  stand out from a very large crowd -- to build a reputation.

  Thinking as an entrepreneur, I see opportunities where others see
  problems. The opportunity is to help the reader filter through the
  huge number of available self-published titles and find what they
  want to read. There are a number of ways the entrepeneur can approach
  this, both by taking what still works from the "traditional" model,
  and by embracing new technologies and methodologies -- thinking
  outside the proverbial box.

  As an example of adjusting the traditional model, one idea I floated
  ten years ago was the "book marketing agent" model. In this model, the
  agent treats the huge mass of self-published titles as a sort of
  "giant slush pile" (and it behooves self-published authors to make
  their e-books freely available to such agents -- I have a couple ideas
  to enable this handshake), and for the titles the agent believes they
  can market and make money -- to approach the authors with a marketing
  (not publishing!) contract. This is essentially a splitting up of the
  multiple tasks the traditional publisher does.

  On the technological side, the rise of online social networking
  systems (where information and recommendations can be rapidly shared
  from person-to-person and person-to-group), mass text indexing (like
  Google), various Web 2.0 and Semantic Web technologies, text analysis
  software, etc., gives new tools and methodologies to help both the
  reader find the books they want to read, as well as to greatly help
  self-published authors to market their books so they can survive the
  various "filters" if their book is good.

  I cannot predict the specifics of how it will all shake out, but I
  am certain that the "publish then filter" will become the dominant
  publishing model in the future, and those who adapt to it, such as
  implementing new ideas to take advantage of this eventuality, will
  be the ones to profit. After all, entrepreneurs succeed when they
  come up with solutions to problems (e.g. consumer aggravations), and
  the aggravation book buyers will have is trying to find a "good read"
  from among the millions of available, essentially self-published
  titles.

  Of course, just my $0.02 worth.

  Thoughts? Alternatives? Criticisms?

  Jon Noring
  DigitalPulp Publishing

  Jon,

  Since you ask...

  I think by and large you are right that there is going to be a very large section [probably the major part] of book production, selling and reading that is going to be digital [practically all production already is, of course].   But I doubt the pbook is ever going to disappear or be a small part of the market, and that traditional system will continue with its variations to come.

  But I think you do put your finger on the ebook problem.   And that is the question of gatekeeper or filter.   Your forecast looks pretty good too.

  But i think these discussions do get bedevilled by thinking of 'the book market'.   There are niches of demand that the producers of books may meet, and often a product will cross niches - sometimes many niches.   It is the power of traditional publishing that it is polished in getting information to many niches at once.

  Mass marketing like 'Best Sellers' in supermarkets and at airports is probably just a light - if financially important - froth on the whole publishing business.

  Then there are issues of competition to books, like games, tv, films.   But this opens a very wide area which I'll sidestep for now  ;-).

  Joseph Harris




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