Re: "The Elusive E-book"

From: "Kent S. Larsen II"
......
>
> I also agree that POD clouds the picture. But I don't agree 
> that POD "will reduce total print
> volumes even if sales increase." If my reading of the sales 
> data is correct, POD already accounts for perhaps as much as 
> 75% of all new titles published each year (Over the decade that 
> POD has been viable, the number of new titles published each 
> year in the US has risen from 100,000 to 400,000.)
>
> In addition, the number of traditionally printed titles, is 
> still increasing.
>
> While POD titles don't have as many copies printed as 
> traditional titles, as long as the number of traditionally 
> printed titles continues to increase, its hard to see how the 
> total volume could possibly be going down.
>
> I do think that eventually print volumes will come down from 
> whatever their high ends up being. But it could take decades 
> for print volumes to be lower than they are today.
>
.
>
> Kent
>

My thinking on this point is that POD print volumes appear to 
average 150 copies, and that figure seems to be based on vanity 
presses.   I wonder how many books from POD publishers reach 
volumes much higher than this, and what the average is.

Paper publishing, on the other hand, if my information is 
correct, tends to minimum print runs of 3,000 and more likely 
5,000, since there is not only optimism, but the sheer quantity 
needs of the distribution system.

I think the position now is pretty much as you state, but 
remember the big and larger medium publishers are looking 
seriously at POD for those titles they are not confident of, and 
for backlist.   The latter would previously have needed the 
minimum for cost effectiveness, again around 3,000 I reckon, 
which might well take 10 years to sell;  tot that up and see how 
much dead tree is in warehouses right now!

And the POD start goes into offset runs only if demand is shown 
to be there [assuming intelligent monitory and risk assessment, 
whether formal or 'gut'].   The judgement is skewed against 
volume since costs are being squeezed all the time.   Bringing 
all publishers into the concept may need a decade or two, but 
the, the effects will quickly accrue into considerably less paper 
volume.

I think even with the near certain steep rise in POD publishing 
this will hardly dent the savings.    In the next decade, maybe 
more, I expect the economic turndown to reduce volume anyway, so 
the truth of this might not be properly assessable for quite a 
while - even if it looks in the short term like my forecast is 
right.

I might also point out that while the number of conventional 
titles might be increasing it does not itself determine the gross 
number of copies, their size or paper weights used. 
Increasingly, of course, paper is made from 'sustainable' 
forests - which may cover a multitude of sins but mainly means 
that good deciduous land is used for acidic fast growing pine, as 
a crop.

This does not alter the argument about gross use, but does at 
least lock up a little more CO2 ;-).

Joseph

 


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