Re: "The Elusive E-book"

On May 12, 2008, at 11:34 PM, Robotech_Master wrote:
> Eric Flint makes a very good case in the columns I linked in an  
> earlier message (and link again, below) that ebooks are probably  
> *never* going to be the dominant form of publishing. Even when  
> there's a better/cheaper reader available, there's never going to  
> be a reason for paper books to go away. Ebooks will not bring on  
> the "paperless library" any more than word
> processors have brought on the "paperless office."


I'm not sure how you define dominant form, but I think it very  
probable that in 15 to 20 years (maybe less), we'll have hardbacks  
and ebooks, but no paperbacks of any sort.

I know that many of you think quite otherwise, and I've been wrong  
before, but let's consider:

There are basically 2 groups of people who buy books: those who want  
a book for its physical qualities or its status, as well as for its  
content, and those who just want the easiest, cheapest possible  
access to the content.

Now, the first group will obviously continue to want books. They may  
even continue to want paperbacks, but I contend that paperbacks  
require a certain volume in order to remain economically viable.

And the second group is a very large portion, probably the majority,  
of those who buy mass market paperbacks. And it's a significant  
portion of those who buy trade paperbacks.

When (and it's is WHEN) ebook devices and the concomitant format wars  
finally generate a killer app/device, then the volume for paperbacks  
will begin to shift over to that device and format. And the more  
people make that shift, the lower the price of ebooks will be, and  
the higher the price of paperbacks. I think this process will  
accelerate, as the price shifts push more and more people to switch.  
And, again, IMNHO, eventually enough people will switch that the  
paperback formats will simply not be sustainable for publishers, who  
will fold those operations into their more prestigious, higher margin  
hard back lines.

It's a scenario, in any case.

Now, if ebooks are given away as promos enough, then the public will  
begin to think of them as something that SHOULD be free. And the  
scenario above won't happen. At the moment, in any case, most  
publishers simply aren't bothering to release their books in e-form,  
either because the market's just not big enough to justify the effort  
involved, or because they're worried about piracy.

When the scenario above becomes possible, we're going to have to deal  
with the same social issues that the music industry has faced, and  
we're going to need to have another approach than the failing  
subscription revenue model or the "use it to drive pbook sales" model.

And saying that authors will write for the prestige, or whatever, is  
just not very realistic. Yes, the vast majority of WRITERS will write  
for nothing. But most AUTHORS won't. And AUTHORS are the ones who  
have the professionalism to turn out solid works at a reasonable  
pace, and keep readers looking for more.

As a book-addict, I am hoping that we can keep our authors gainfully  
employed.

Marion Gropen
Gropen Associates, Inc.
www.GropenAssoc.com
Offering Financial Advice By-The-Question,
Downloadable Profit-Enhancing Tools,
and Classes to the Small Press Community.




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