more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango

Begin forwarded message:

From: Bob Schmidt <[email protected]>
Date: October 15, 2006 12:04:41 AM EDT
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [IP] more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango

Dave, for IP if you wish.

> You will NOT get into the "friends list
> of your friends (stored on youtube/skyblog/<current local culturaly
> accepted brand), and therefore your friends will not be "alerted" when
> you update your site, wich means that they will not "comment" on your
> site.
> i.e. your'e out.

But you're out in 4 years anyway because the next crowd won't want to  
have anything to do with whatever the last crowd thought was "cool".  
Fashion is fickle. Experiential appetites are insatiable, always  
looking for the next new "novel high." It has ever been thus.

There will be a successor to Myspace and You Tube, just as surely as  
they were the successors to Geocities and the "personal home pages"  
of the 90's, and just as surely as XBox replaced Doom which replaced  
Mario Bros. which replaced Pong.

Today, their half lives are about as long as Moore's law and the IRR  
is more or less the inverse of (50% loss of value every 18 mos.).  
Google can swallow these things because any one of them represents a  
small portion of its value. But that has ever been thus. One day,  
Google may turn out the be the new AOL - an online Walmart so big  
that no acquisition is large enough to move the needle on growth.


At 08:50 AM 10/14/2006, David Farber wrote:


> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: Patrick Sinz <[email protected]>
> Date: October 14, 2006 3:13:05 AM EDT
> To: [email protected]
> Subject: Re: [IP] more on Jeffrey Chester: The Google YouTube Tango
>
> <snip>
>
>> Frankly, I'm astonished at the prices that have been paid for MySpace
>> and YouTube.  If these were physical, or at least persistent, assets
>> that would be one thing.  They aren't.  Kids have always been smarter
>> than "Grups" give them credit for.  If the media barons become too
>> invasive with the ads, everyone will just fade away to another  
>> meeting
>> place on the net, and Murdoch and company will be left holding the
>> (now
>> empty) bag.
> It is also obvious that peer pressure has no impact on the kids, as
> demonstrated by the fact that almost NO teen ager is wearing  
> overprices
> branded shoes, and the constant infringment on their privacy has  
> driven
> all of them (except some of the more dimwitted ones) away from MSN/ 
> AIM.
>> Scott
> Unfortunatelly the level of "pain" that the "media barrons" can  
> inflict
> on users of something like youtube (or skyblog) is not linked to the
> service itself, but to the service + the fact that all the other kids
> are using the same platform.
> So if for instance you are using the "really nice and cool peoples  
> video
> blogging platform" vs youtube. You will NOT get into the "friends list
> of your friends (stored on youtube/skyblog/<current local culturaly
> accepted brand), and therefore your friends will not be "alerted" when
> you update your site, wich means that they will not "comment" on your
> site.
> i.e. your'e out.
>
> And as a final comment 1.6 Billion US$ is about 6 times the price of
> Mirabilis (and if I remember well Mirabilis was paid for in cash vs
> stocks for youtubes).
> I'd be very surprised if the "size" of the internet has not been
> multiplied by more than 6 in the past 8 years.
> Moreover I do believe that AOL would not have any hope of morphing  
> from
> a modem access provider into a content provider without the leverage
> that ICQ gave them.
>
> (so who will be able to afford 10 Billion US$ for the "next big  
> network
> effect based thing" in 2012 ?)
>>
>>
>>
>>
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