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[Thanks to Adam Peake for this pointer. Some excerpts - BSA]
http://neasia.nikkeibp.com/wcs/leaf?CID=onair/asabt/fw/292043
Prediction of Communications Crisis Prompts Japan's Telecom Ministry to Take
Action
February 23, 2004 (TOKYO) -- Japan's Ministry of Public Management, Home
Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications (MPHPT) is taking the initiative to
establish a study group in order to circumvent a potential communications
crisis that could occur in Japan due to a sharp increase in data
communications traffic.
Predicting that the spread of broadband communications may cause capacity
shortages in existing communications infrastructures as soon as five years
from now, and strong possibilities of triggering interruptions, the MPHPT
plans to launch countermeasures aimed at reinforcing the communications
infrastructure. The study group expects to release a midterm report this
summer.
According to the report, data communications traffic across the country has
been expanded nearly 1,000 times as large as that observed in the last 10
years. If it continues to increase at this pace, the domestic data
communications traffic should reach as much as 1,024 times the current
volume in the next 10 years.
With the current facilities as they are, a simple calculation shows that
actual communications traffic will exceed the backbone's maximum capacity as
soon as five years from now.
That is not the only problem. Capacity limits of devices -- routers and
switches that constitute communications networks -- are coming within sight.
In order to handle huge communications traffic without any delay,
large-capacity routers of more than 10Tbps are required. To deal with
growing data communications traffic, it is imperative to reinvest in the
communications infrastructure, such as an expansion of relay-network
capacities by adding new optical fibers and communications equipment.
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