CryoNet #32346 - #32348

CryoNet - Sun 31 Jan 2010

    #32346: Cryonics Technology Progress Conference April 9-11 follow up [Rudi Hoffman]
    #32347: Re: CryoNet #32340 - #32345 [David Stodolsky]
    #32348: CI growth rate decreasing? [David Stodolsky]

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Message #32346
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2010 09:29:33 -0500
Subject: Cryonics Technology Progress Conference April 9-11 follow up
From: Rudi Hoffman <[email protected]>

--001636284526b62c6b047e6294a1

Good morning, folks.  Partly in response to Warren's posting on Cryonet
yesterday, which was thought provoking and worth reading, I thought I would
let the wider community know about the following.  The following may be
premature, and was written specifically to current stakeholders, but I think
may still be helpful for you to read.

BTW, Warren...seriously...thanks for sharing!

Cryonics Technology Progress Conference April 9-11 follow up
Inbox

Hello, Dear Cryonics Proponents:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This email is to follow up on the conference call which took place today
with Catherine Baldwin, Aaron Drake, Lori Rhodes, and Rudi Hoffman.  This
call was centered on pulling together on Cryonics Technology Progress
Conference, hereafter referred to cleverly as the CTPC.  Sorry if you feel
you don't want to be in the loop for this announcement, but I want all
potential participants and supporters included and feeling great about this
conference.

SOME DETAILS

The following were  discussed:

1.  The date is reasonable, not conflicting with known events...although
concerning because of how quick it is coming up.  As always, time is of the
essence...and success is rarely convenient.

2.  Because some people may be flying in, and to create the
psychological/emotional space that generates lasting relationships and
progress, dates were extended to include Saturday night and Sunday morning.


3.  A key and important part of the event/training will be Aaron Drake,
Alcor Transport and Medical Director.  Aaron needs to discuss with Jennifer
and the Alcor board to see if they will support his attendance at this
event.  BTW, if anyone feels left out of the loop, I take personal
responsibility and apologize...at this initial stage everything was/is
provisional and subject to approval by stakeholder management.

Jennifer and Alcor board, I see Aaron Drake and Catherine Baldwin as the
real "Headliner Draws" to this event.  This will leverage Aaron's time,
enabling him to meet activist cryonicists in a cost effective and efficient
manner.  I respectfully request you to allow him this opportunity.

4.  The PURPOSE of the meeting is (at least)  twofold:

     A.  To help TRAIN the medical professionals involved with both
Suspended Animation AND Alcor.  To have activist cryonicists watch and
learn, and to the degree appropriate, participate in the medical, technical,
administrative, and logistical components of making cryonics an evidence
based, legitimate medical intervention.  This would include collaborative
and cooperative efforts among CI, SA, and Alcor people.  This event will
generate genuine trust, agreement, and friendship bonds, among all
cryonicists in attendance.

     B.  To inform current cryonicists about how much progress has been
achieved regarding the current "state of the art" for cryonics.

5.  I have asked Catherine Baldwin to reprise her compelling and
professional presentation which she did at the "Teens and Twenties"
conference in South Florida several weeks ago.

6.  The event venue remains Terasem in Indialantic Beach, Central East coast
of Florida.

7.  The venue being what it is, it was decided that attendance should be
limited to 25 or 30 of first come respondents.

COSTS

8.  No sponsorships are being requested at this time of anyone or any
organization.  It is hoped that Alcor would pay for Aaron to fly to Teresem
to train.  It is hoped that at least some members of the board, scientific
advisers, and Alcor cryotransport team will be able to attend.  And SA will
hopefully bring their cryotransport vehicle to display, along with med kits
and full package of their field equipment to demonstrate.

9.  This is designed to be a high content, nuts and bolts, roll-up-one's
sleeves kind of meeting.  It is my opinion that we can conduct this with
minimal costs to participants.  Details on lodging and food will be worked
out with the experienced and competent Lori Rhodes presiding on these
matters.  Lori is already working on great group rates at local Doubletree
Hotel, I believe.

One of the best cryonics conferences I ever attended...and I have been to
all seven and spoken at most...was the very first.  It was cheap...nobody
had any money (sound familiar?), and I had THREE roomates.  Worked out
great, developed relationships I maintain to this day 15 years later.  We
need a culture that honors relationships, not ostentation.

10.  Lori and I, and anyone who wants or needs to, will be generating an
email announcement promoting the event.  I will help get this out to the
field, along with promo help from CI, SA, and Alcor which I am requesting.
I promise you, group, that I will get the right people in the room.

11.  If Steven Valentine and/or Bill Faloon could be there and reprise the
"Timeship" presentation from the recent conference, this would be a plus as
well.  Of course, if Brian Wowk and/or Greg Fahy could present recent
findings, this would be tremendous.  But this is dependent upon them getting
authorization and funding from their bosses/sponsors.

IN CONCLUSION

I AM EXCITED ABOUT THIS BEING A GREAT EVENT!

I am committed to help make this a high value event, with agreements and
relationships developed that will strengthen the entire cryonics community.
Culture and progress are built from event to event.  Organizations grow when
people are in meat space and find reasons to like and trust each other.
This does not take insight...merely eyesight.

Millions of dollars, thousands of person-hours, and untold amounts of
intellectual capital have ALREADY been invested to develop cryonics into
something more like a mainstream, legitimate, scientific, technologically
advanced endeavor.  MOST signed up cryonicists, possibly including those
reading this, don't realize how much progress has already been made.  We
need to showcase this, and continue and expand the tremendous work that has
been done to save individual lives.

Thank you in advance for whatever you may be able to do to make the CTPC an
historic event.

Yours for Centuries,

Rudi

-- 
Rudi Richard Hoffman CFP CLU ChFC

World's Leading Cryonics Insuror rudihoffman.com
Former Board Member Financial Planning Association fpafla.com
Board Member Salvation Army salvationarmy.org
Member Alcor Life Extension Foundation alcor.org,
Member Cryonics Institute cryonics.org
Certified Financial Planner(TM) CFP Board of Standards
Member World Transhumanist Association http://transhumanism.org/

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Message #32347
From: David Stodolsky <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: CryoNet #32340 - #32345
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2010 22:21:43 +0100
References: <[email protected]>

On 30 Jan 2010, at 11:00 AM, CryoNet wrote:

> Very few people are capable of doing the scientific research that you
> mention.


Forwarded message -  Re: [LongevityReport] Krugman Explains Why  
Progress Is Slowing Down
>>
>>
>> > Only about 1 of a thousand persons are scientists, so there is  
>> massive
>> > under underutilization of brain power and therefore advancement.:
>> >
>> Really? What proportion of the population could be scientists,
>> do you think? More than 0.1%, but perhaps not much more.
>
> http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/12/physics-still-pulls-them-in.html
>
> the average IQ of a physics PhD student is about 130.


> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient
>>
>> the scoring of modern IQ tests such as the Wechsler Adult  
>> Intelligence Scale is now based on a projection of the subject's  
>> measured rank on the Gaussian bell curve with a center value  
>> (average IQ) of 100, and a standard deviation of 15
>
> 2.3% of the population is beyond 2 standard deviations from the  
> norm, thus this percentage of persons could be the smartest half of  
> physicists. That is, 23 of 1000. This is the subject with the  
> highest average IQ. So, we are now using 1/46 of the potential  
> physicists on the Planet.
>



> We've already seen the discrediting of the anti-aging "experts" back
> in the 1970's who predicted that we could throw away the actuarial
> tables by now instead of our vitamins. Bohemians on the fringes of
> cryonics back then like Robert Anton Wilson, Timothy Leary and F.M.
> Esfandiary helped to popularize these forecasts.

According to my calculation above, we are progressing at 1/46th the  
potential rate due to a socioeconomic inability to mobilize scientific  
manpower that could be working in the hard sciences. Thus, if we had  
mobilized the manpower excluded by the current system from 1980 to  
2010, we would have achieved the level that will be reached in 1380  
years. Of course, it wouldn't be possible to educate the excluded  
manpower in one shot, so we need a more conservative estimate.  
However, we only need a couple of hundred years of scientific progress  
to achieve reversible suspension and, perhaps, to halt ageing.  
Therefore, except for the social factors, the Bohemians probably had  
it right.

At least Leary was working for a social mobilization to promote life- 
extension, higher intelligence, and space colonization. These concepts  
are more and more moving into the mainstream of transhumanist and  
cryonicist thought. So, the question can be posed as to whether the  
Bohemians failed or the cryonics movement failed, by not recognizing  
what the Bohemians were trying to accomplish and how it could impact  
cryonics. Unfortunately, the exclusion of social factors from  
consideration by the current generation of cryonicists seems to  
persist, to a large degree.


dss

David Stodolsky
[email protected]  Skype: davidstodolsky

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Message #32348
From: David Stodolsky <[email protected]>
Subject: CI growth rate decreasing?
Date: Sat, 30 Jan 2010 22:23:49 +0100

I placed estimates of CI growth, based upon the data thru 2004 on this  
page:

http://cryin.secureid.org/stories/storyReader$52


Using the more conservative 17%/year estimated growth rate (the  
1998-2004 rate was 23%/year):

127 suspendees predicted by 2010.1.1
  85 suspendees actual by 2010.1.1
(Ten patients received from the American Cryonics Society in 2004 are  
not included. Thus 58 suspendees on 2005.1.1 and 85 suspendees on  
2010.1.1)

1044 total members predicted by 2010.1.1
  833 total members actual by 2010.1.1
(476 members on 20041.1)


Growth in suspendees is only 67% of expected.
Growth in members is only 80% of expected.

When I compared exponential and linear growth for 1998 thru 2008,  
linear growth appeared to be a better fit and this trend continues.  
This suggests that some change has taken place in recent years to  
reduce the growth rate.

I have suggested two possible sources for this change. First, we have  
run out of atheist millionaires in the USA, the main source of CI  
suspendees. Second, the surge in spirituality/religiosity in the USA  
during the last 10 to 15 years has reduced the total number of persons  
considering suspension.


dss


David Stodolsky
[email protected]  Skype: davidstodolsky

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