threats, warnings, provocations

Friends and colleagues,

I've perhaps sent this query before, but here's a new-ish version.  As I
work on Thucydides I find little sign that  ancient historians  have worked
on the topic, how  provocations, threats, and warnings differ from one
another.  One *locus *for this is an Athenian speech, 1.72-78 (1.72 is the
intro).  Very good scholars have suggested it is "provocative," but have
often backed away from that, asserting that the speakers really want to
avoid going to war.  That can be argued.

Recent history is rich in examples of the confusions that can arise.  In
one illustrative recent  case, master diplomat George Kennan in 1952
informed his superiors that the Soviet leadership felt threatened by the
Marshall Plan and NATO, though his superiors in Washington insisted that
these were merely defensive initiatives.  The State Department’s failure to
respond confirmed, Robert Jervis says,  “*how hard it is to convince most
people that they may be inadvertently threatening others.*”   [my
Italics].   Was NATO purely defensive?  Was it a warning?  It wasn't a
provocation.

I have looked for discussions of this topic in our authorities, and found
none.

Dan Tompkins