Fw: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 19 June 2002 Issue on Web

----- Original Message -----
From: "Svante Cornell" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Sunday, June 23, 2002 4:58 PM
Subject: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 19 June 2002 Issue on Web


> A distribution of: CentralAsia-L - Announcement List for Central Asian
Studies
>
>
> PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 19 June 2002 Issue on Web
>
> The 19 June 2002 Issue of the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, a
subscription
> free Web journal with over 114,000 visitors to the site since January 2000
is
> now on-line at http://www.cacianalyst.org/
>
> The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The
Nitze
> School of Advanced International Studies is proud to announce the
publication
> of the 19 June 2002 issue of its biweekly Web-Journal, The Central Asia-
> Caucasus Analyst.
>
> The Institute also offers its readers the option of downloading The
Analyst in
> PDF format, enabling readers to view and print out the entire issue of The
> Analyst. The html version will, of course, remain available.
>
> THE ANALYTICAL ARTICLES INCLUDE:
>
> AFGHANISTAN TAKES A CAUTIOUS LEAP FORWARD: TRAVAILS OF THE LOYA JIRGA
> Rahimullah Yusufzai
> The historic Loya Jirga this week showed clearly that Afghanistan is ready
to
> embrace democracy after 24 years of conflict. Delegates' urge to be heard
was
> so great that it often led to heated discussions and even scuffles.
However,
> the Loya Jirga suffered from a host of shortcomings. It started late and
was
> extended beyond its schedule; the delay in publishing the Loya Jirga's
rules
> of procedure, uncertainty about its agenda, and the absence of official
list
> of its members contributed to the confusion. Backroom political deals
caused
> much anguish among the delegates and repeatedly triggered uproar. However,
the
> Loya Jirga members took their job much more seriously than anticipated by
the
> Afghan warlords who over the past two decades have controlled
Afghanistan's
> destiny.
>
> WILL IRANIAN-AZERBAIJANI TIES IMPROVE AFTER PRESIDENT ALIYEV'S VISIT TO
IRAN?
> Hooman Peimani
> After three years of delay, President Heydar Aliyev paid an official
three-day
> visit to Iran in May that demonstrated an interest in Azerbaijan for
improving
> ties with Iran. President Aliyev's objectives for better ties include both
> state-to-state issues such as the division of the Caspian Sea and
Azerbaijan's
> need for Iran's help in resolving the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. They also
> include personal issues such as his attempts to ensure the presidency of
his
> son after he is gone from the political scene. However, while both Iran
and
> Azerbaijan have interests in improving relations, various internal and
> external factors will "guarantee" their uneasy ties for the foreseeable
future.
>
> THE OSCE MINSK GROUP: IS THERE SPACE FOR IMPROVEMENT?
> Fariz Ismailzade
> On May 8, 2002, Deputy Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Tatul
> Margaryan and Araz Azimov, recently appointed to be the special
> representatives of Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents on Nagorno-
Karabakh
> conflict, met in Prague in an attempt to revitalize the peace dialogue
between
> the two countries and find a solution to the 14-year old conflict. The
meeting
> produced no tangible results, and whether subsequent meetings between the
> special envoys will produce any results depends not only the willingness
of
> the warring countries to make painful compromises, but also on the work of
the
> Minsk group itself. Significant changes from the current style of
mediation
> are needed in order to bring positive impact to the peace process.
>
> THE TRANS-AFGHAN PIPELINE, A PIPE DREAM FORGING REALITY
> Ron Callari and Tariq Saeedi
> A decade in the planning, feasibility studies, inadequate financing, wars
and
> alternate routes all testify to the implausibility of a successful
pipeline
> being laid down from the gas-rich fields of Turkmenistan, via Afghanistan
on
> route to points southeast in Pakistan and potentially extending on to New
> Delhi. Yet the Trans-Afghan pipeline continues to thrive as a viable
project
> in potentially delivering liquefied natural gas over a 1500-km landlocked
path
> of treacherous terrain. The dreams for a modern day Silk Road are slowly
> reaching conclusion in the 21st Century.
>
> THE FIELD REPORTS INCLUDE:
>
> TENSIONS AND CLASHES IN NARDARAN
> On June 4, armed clashes in the notoriously rebellious village of Nardaran
> just outside Baku left one dead and dozens injured. The authorities
strong-
> handed approach has brought both domestic and international criticism,
while
> the government seems unprepared to handle the situation.
>
> KAZAKHSTAN KNOCKS THE DOOR OF THE WTO
> There have been several rounds of talks between the Kazakh government and
WTO
> representatives in the past six years. Despite optimistic official
> declarations, both sides admit that there are still many hurdles to be
> surmounted before Kazakhstan's dream of becoming an equal member of the
world
> trade community comes true.
>
> REVIEW OF GEORGIA'S PRELIMINARY LOCAL ELECTIONS RETURNS
> Georgia has held municipal elections that were relatively chaotic and
produced
> no clear winner. The elections do not seem to have been intentionally
rigged,
> though local-level problems were occasionally large. The elections also
showed
> a sharp difference between Tbilisi and the regions.
>
> UZBEKISTAN WITHDRAWAL FROM GUUAM CAUSED SHOCK REACTION IN BAKU
> Uzbekistan's June 13 decision to withdraw from the GUUAM alliance seems to
> have been a complete surprise for the Azerbaijani leadership. There is no
> obvious explanation for the Uzbek decision, which has spurred debate both
on
> Uzbekistan's foreign policy orientation and on the future of GUUAM
cooperation.
>
> The Analyst provides a rigorous, concise and nonpartisan forum where
> specialists can assess issues and events in the Central Asia-Caucasus
region
> for a broad audience of business people, journalists, policy makers,
> government officials, diplomats and academics.  The Analyst seeks regional
> specialists, journalists, economists, and political scientists to join its
> pool of authors who are then asked to contribute short, timely, analytical
> articles, ca. 900-1000 words in length. The institute pays a honorarium to
the
> authors. The Analyst also seeks local experts, corporate representatives
and
> NGO representatives from the region to write Field Reports for a modest
> honorarium.
>
> The Analyst provides factual, objective and analytical articles valuing
fresh
> insights rather than the conventional wisdom.  We welcome readers and
writers
> from various perspectives and viewpoints.  We value your comments and
> suggestions.
>
> Those interested in joining The Analyst's pool of authors to contribute
> articles, field reports or contacts of potential writers, please send your
CV
> to: [email protected] and suggest some topics on which you would
like
> to write. Please remember that The Analyst does not accept double
submissions.
>
>
> Svante E. Cornell, Acting Editor
> Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst
> Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
> The Johns Hopkins University
> Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
> 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
> Washington, DC 20036
> Tel. 1-202-663-7712
> Fax. 1-202-663-7785
> [email protected]
>
>
>