Re: Making a bid that works really well because pd psyched

On 9/18/2019 7:45 PM, Robert Frick wrote:
> I think there is a "law of coincidence", but I don't know its status

"Rule of coincidence" is a guideline in weighing evidence.  If both 
members of a partnership do something odd, and the two odd things 
compensate for each other, maybe it's not a coincidence.  Or maybe it 
is.  Of course there has to be a potential infraction and damage before 
you even start weighing evidence.

> Second hand, East opens 1 Heart with
> 10432
> AKJ43
> J54
> A

> Partner responds a nonforcing (!) 1NT with
> 97
> Q962
> KT83
> T64
 > Opener then bids 2D on Jxx. Partner converts to 2H, of course.

Both 1NT and 2D are odd bids, and they do compensate for each other. 
Presumably the potential infraction to be investigated is MI.

> Vul versus not vul. (The meaning of 3H is not clear.)

> (They made 10 tricks in hearts. The opponents are down one in 3C. 1NT goes down 1.)

Was there any damage?  If opponents bid 3C, isn't responder a good bet 
to bid 3H?  Of course if the responder is weird enough to bid 1NT, maybe 
not.

You probably already know whether the EW players are clueless beginners 
or "old hands" trying something sneaky.  If you think there might have 
been a hidden agreement and NS might have done better given full 
information, it's probably worth asking EW -- separately if possible -- 
about the reasons for their respective bids.  As in any MI case, figure 
out what the true understanding was, then decide whether NS would have 
done better had they known.  That can be a weighted score.  If you think 
EW were deliberately concealing their understandings, then you have a 
C&E case to evaluate.
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