Odds - Game 1

I just was thinking I'd post some general thoughts on who's likely 
to win.  These obviously are based on current position and what the 
last moves reveal of current alliances so may be off considerably, 
but perhaps that will stir some conversation.

And the favorite in Game 1 is:

Austria (Adam Silverman) 45% - He's not only the current leader at 8 
SC's, but there is no significant threat currently opposing him, and 
he's likely to continue to grow at Russia's expense.  There is still 
time for him to be taken down, especially since he does not have a 
corner position, but he deserves the favorite position at the moment.

France (Steve Ray) 20% - He's currently the second largest power at 
7 SC's, but has recently suffered a setback with the loss of 
Holland.  The loss is hardly fatal though, and Germany will have a 
hard time pressing an attack without leaving himself very vulnerable 
to Austria, the current leader.  If Austria does falter, France is 
in good position to take advantage, but he isn't the only one. 

England (Brad Smith) 17% - He's trailing the two leaders, but his 
capture of Holland and seeming peace with France leaves him a strong 
corner position while France and Russia turn their backs to deal 
with Austria (and he's seemingly allied with Germany).  If the board 
begins to focus against Austria, he may well be able to stage a late 
rally to push himself into the lead.

Turkey (Owen Blagae) 11% - Currently tied with England at 5 SC's, 
he's also Austria's apparent ally.  Unfortunately, this leaves him 
with little in the way of growth opportunities, and his unit mix is 
not conducive for a stab on Austria either.  Still, if Austria 
falls, he may be able to pick up enough spoils to sneak into the 
lead, and his strong Med presence may be sufficient to push into 
Italian centers.  Further NMR's will certainly erode his chances.

Germany (David Malloch) 5% - He's in a dicey position, caught 
between the players with the best chances.  Still, he's got 4 SC's 
and an apparent alliance with England.  France appears to be pulling 
back to move through the Med, and any advance against Austria would 
seem to require German efforts to succeed.  There's still time to 
make up ground, but he's still a longshot at best.

Russia (Rick Powell) 1% - He's losing ground to Austria, and there's 
probably at least Moscow yet to be lost.  On the brighter side, if 
the others are cooperating to contain and drive back Austria, he'll 
be involved at least initially.  So all he needs to do is somehow 
push Austria back from his own territory quickly enough to defend 
himself from late surges from England and Germany while 
simultaneously pushing deep into Austria and perhaps Turkey.  The 
odds are certainly against him.

Italy (Andrew Stupple) 1% - His position is just as poor as Russia's 
with both Austria and Turkey menacing him.  And while France's navy 
may be coming to the rescue (despite taking Tunis), that doesn't 
exactly inspire much confidence in the chances for growth even if 
Austria is defeated.  Still, I guess it is still theoretically 
possible for him to win.





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