Re: Odds - Game 1

Cool, keep on with the odds mate. With most games well into late midgame
either timeline wise or postion on board wise, its time to see who the
winning horses are likely to be.


----- Original Message ----- 
From: "naboimp" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2004 8:46 AM
Subject: [wm02-chat] Odds - Game 1


> I just was thinking I'd post some general thoughts on who's likely
> to win.  These obviously are based on current position and what the
> last moves reveal of current alliances so may be off considerably,
> but perhaps that will stir some conversation.
>
> And the favorite in Game 1 is:
>
> Austria (Adam Silverman) 45% - He's not only the current leader at 8
> SC's, but there is no significant threat currently opposing him, and
> he's likely to continue to grow at Russia's expense.  There is still
> time for him to be taken down, especially since he does not have a
> corner position, but he deserves the favorite position at the moment.
>
> France (Steve Ray) 20% - He's currently the second largest power at
> 7 SC's, but has recently suffered a setback with the loss of
> Holland.  The loss is hardly fatal though, and Germany will have a
> hard time pressing an attack without leaving himself very vulnerable
> to Austria, the current leader.  If Austria does falter, France is
> in good position to take advantage, but he isn't the only one.
>
> England (Brad Smith) 17% - He's trailing the two leaders, but his
> capture of Holland and seeming peace with France leaves him a strong
> corner position while France and Russia turn their backs to deal
> with Austria (and he's seemingly allied with Germany).  If the board
> begins to focus against Austria, he may well be able to stage a late
> rally to push himself into the lead.
>
> Turkey (Owen Blagae) 11% - Currently tied with England at 5 SC's,
> he's also Austria's apparent ally.  Unfortunately, this leaves him
> with little in the way of growth opportunities, and his unit mix is
> not conducive for a stab on Austria either.  Still, if Austria
> falls, he may be able to pick up enough spoils to sneak into the
> lead, and his strong Med presence may be sufficient to push into
> Italian centers.  Further NMR's will certainly erode his chances.
>
> Germany (David Malloch) 5% - He's in a dicey position, caught
> between the players with the best chances.  Still, he's got 4 SC's
> and an apparent alliance with England.  France appears to be pulling
> back to move through the Med, and any advance against Austria would
> seem to require German efforts to succeed.  There's still time to
> make up ground, but he's still a longshot at best.
>
> Russia (Rick Powell) 1% - He's losing ground to Austria, and there's
> probably at least Moscow yet to be lost.  On the brighter side, if
> the others are cooperating to contain and drive back Austria, he'll
> be involved at least initially.  So all he needs to do is somehow
> push Austria back from his own territory quickly enough to defend
> himself from late surges from England and Germany while
> simultaneously pushing deep into Austria and perhaps Turkey.  The
> odds are certainly against him.
>
> Italy (Andrew Stupple) 1% - His position is just as poor as Russia's
> with both Austria and Turkey menacing him.  And while France's navy
> may be coming to the rescue (despite taking Tunis), that doesn't
> exactly inspire much confidence in the chances for growth even if
> Austria is defeated.  Still, I guess it is still theoretically
> possible for him to win.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>



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