Odds - Game 2

I'm continuing my assessment of odds with Game 2, with which I have 
a bit more information.  Still, I'll rate it based on the current 
map and last season's moves (as if from an observer's perspective).  
Note - possible propaganda below.

England (Justin Weisweiller) 53% - With 10 SC's, he dwarfs the other 
players in the game at present, and with his strong corner position, 
he will likely be difficult to bring back to earth.  Still, there is 
time for it to happen, and it isn't clear that he has any active 
allies at the moment.  The big question is whether the other powers 
can cooperate long enough to make it happen.  He's the definite 
favorite.

Italy (Jake Mannix) 12% - The NMR of last turn and the apparent loss 
of Serbia doesn't help, but he's still sitting behind the players 
that need to oppose England (if England is to fall), and that gives 
him the best shot at surging late to victory.

Russia (Paul Stuckwisch) 11% - He would seemingly have nearly as 
much chance to win as anyone else besides England, but it would 
still be tricky to pull it off, especially since the choices seem to 
be moving hard against England where the gains should be slow if 
even existent or to join with Italy against Austria and/or Turkey, 
which favors Italy and does little to damage England.  (Obviously, I 
could expound further, but I choose not to do so.)

France (Stan Rodrigues) 10% - He's in a tough position, holding the 
bulk of England's strength at bay.  Still, if England is to fall, 
he's not in a bad position to be a key beneficiary, especially if 
Austria keeps Italian attentions eastward.

Austria (Eelco van Duijnhoven) 9% - Squeezed between Italy and 
Russia, he's certainly in a vulnerable position, but his position is 
somewhat defendable especially now with the capture of Serbia.  A 
win probably requires a breakout against either Italy or Russia, but 
it also requires a reduction of England.

Turkey (Len Tennant) 5% - He's the smallest power on the board with 
only 2 SC's (though he may have picked up a third one).  His biggest 
advantage is that he's behind everyone if they have to focus on 
England, but that also inhibits his growth opportunities to a 
degree, and he's got a long ways to catch up.

Germany (Steve Bird) 0% - Long gone from this game, but his legacy 
of a strong England lives on.




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