Odds - Game 3

Time for another analysis - I did one on Game 2 as well that 
apparently has not shown up yet interestingly enough.  But for now, 
I'll go on to Game 3.

The favorite:

England (Julio Pereira) 35% - This board is much more balanced than 
the prior two, but he has the best position here.  He's got a strong 
corner with France and Russia dissolving and Germany as an ally who 
can't really hurt him.  All he needs is to stay ahead of his two 
main rivals, and the game is won.

Austria (Kester Bearne) 30% - Tied for the current lead at 9 SC's, 
he's in good position also, but unlike England, it isn't immediately 
obvious that he has any allies remaining.  On the plus side, he's 
surrounded by the weaker powers and may be able to swallow them to 
take the lead, but growing in all directions at once while also 
limiting the chance for England (especially) to grow is still an 
uphill battle.

Germany (Ray Setzer) 25% - His position could be better, but it also 
could be a lot worse.  His biggest problem appears to be finding new 
growth without bumping into his two rivals, neither of which he is 
particularly well positioned to fight.  He's definitely vulnerable 
to a late game stab by England for the win, and Austria appears in 
better position to grab up centers from the weaker powers.  That all 
said, Germany does have builds he can use currently (unlike 
Austria), and if he finds a way to rally the small powers against 
Austria while beating England to other builds, his position to gain 
power grows immensely.  He's still a dark horse in this race, but I 
wouldn't count him out.

Russia (Nick Benedict) 6% - He's suffered a huge blow with the loss 
of two centers, one each to Austria and Germany, but he does 
represent the balance of power between the two going forward, which 
gives him some leverage.  Using that leverage to somehow forge a 
winning position is difficult to see, but it clearly is not 
impossible in the time remaining.

Turkey (John O'Donnell) 2% - He's in a bad position, but at least 
he's not in imminent danger of collapse.  Austria has a number of 
other fronts so may not be able to make Turkey's end a priority, and 
that leaves the door open for a comeback especially if Austria and 
Russia falter.

France (Eric Mead) 1% - He's in roadblock mode, but there doesn't 
appear to be anyone coming to his rescue.  Assuming Germany and 
England continue working together, there's little he can do.  Still, 
there's at least a glimmer of hope that England and Germany do split.

Italy (Roger Yonkoski) 1% - Austria appears to be leaving him alone 
for now so he may survive, but if his survival depends upon Austria, 
he also has little in the way of growth prospects.  Turning against 
Austria, even if successful, probably aids England and Germany, 
which also means an also ran finish.  He needs a miracle.




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