Odds - Game 4

This one is a challenge to analyze since there doesn't appear to be 
a public map available, but I'll do the best I can off the latest 
adjudication.

The favorite:

Italy (Steve Langdon) 52% - With at least 10 SC's (and capturing Con 
in this spring turn), he has an apparent commanding lead over his 
closest rivals.  Not only that, but Turkey appears to be willing to 
aid him to victory, and Russia is falling backwards before him while 
also fighting Germany in the north.  The biggest concern appears to 
be the potential difficulty of challenging both Germany and France 
together in the near future.

France (Michael Weinzimer) 23% - If Italy is to be taken down, he's 
the one in best position to gain, and he has better position on 
Germany in northern waters than vice versa also.  With more than 
half the game to go, he does have time to best both rivals, but he 
can't let Italy get much bigger than he currently is.

Germany (Peter Hart) 17% - He's of equivalent size to France at the 
moment, and he's got a good shot of taking Edi (though he may lose 
Nwy).  Russia's ongoing collapse could give him an opening to gain, 
and he's moved forces southward to engage Italy.  It just seems to 
be a tougher road than that of France, and his position versus his 
current ally is not as good.  Still, any chance starts with Italy 
faltering, and Germany can gain well if that occurs.

Russia (Walter de Oude) 5% - He's still in play though weakening.  
One factor in his favor is his position between Italy and Germany 
that may allow him to find a place in an alliance with one or the 
other.  Even with that accomplished, his work is cut out for him to 
finish ahead of all three of the larger powers.

Turkey (John Colledge) 2% - He's currently serving Italy's cause, 
which is clearly a dead end for winning, but if an anti - Italian 
alliance sprung up, he would seem to be likely to profit from it.  
Enough to move into the lead?  Unlikely, but stranger things have 
happened.

England (Pat D'Hyon) 1% - He's still breathing, which I guess means 
anything is technically possible, but realistically it looks as 
though the end is nigh unless there is a sudden flare up between 
allies France and Germany.

Austria (Jon Crocker) 0% - Gone, apparently as a victim of Italian 
aggression.





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