Odds - Game 5

Continuing on (and again with a map), I'll turn to Game 5.

The Favorite:

France (Bruce Mount) 60% - He already owns 11 SC's and is poised to 
pick up a few more from England (who apparently was stabbed).  No 
one currently poises a realistic threat to his dominance, and it 
will take some major cooperation between the other players for 
anyone else to win.

Austria (Jonathan Langman) 22% - He's definitely in the best 
position if France is overcome, especially since his forces would 
almost certainly be necessary to the task.  Despite his support for 
Russia, I'm not convinced they are friendly, which means he may be 
playing without any allies currently.  Still, Italy, Turkey, and 
Russia are all individually weak, and some lucky bounces could allow 
him to amass almost as large a power as France.  (Then there comes 
the matter of facing France, which will certainly come in the not 
too distant future.)

England (Rick Mallon) 10% - It says quite a bit that he is the third 
best hope for a victor in this game, considering he's just been hit 
with a major stab.  Still, he has a nice base in Scandinavia with 
which to recover if France starts getting hit elsewhere.  France's 
demise is obviously a must, and then he would just have to get the 
lion's share of the spoils.  It's possible, just not probable.

Russia (Steve Emmert) 4% - His position has just taken a turn for 
the worse, but I guess he can still recover, especially if he 
outguesses Turkey and teams up with Italy this fall.  A big problem 
is having to deal with Austria while still containing France, and 
there's no easy answer there.  If Turkey gets the best of him in the 
south and doesn't leave him alone thereafter, he's got really no 
shot.

Turkey (Tim Sweeney) 3% - His chances, though slim, improve if he's 
able to build this winter from Smyrna, but that means avoiding 
losing either Con or Ank this fall.  If Russia withdraws 
intentionally or unintentionally, Turkey does gain a certain freedom 
of movement.  It's a long ways to come back from, especially without 
interfering in the containment of France, but it is still possible.

Italy (Doug Burgoyne) 1% - He's basically backed into his peninsula 
with nowhere to go (especially if his other army is disbanded as 
seems likely).  He may not be eliminated, especially if France 
thinks he can make use of him, but there isn't much hope for growth 
here.

Germany (Gokul Ramdas) 0% - Gone as victim to an England and France 
alliance, which is now looking bad for England.




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