Odds - Game 6

This one is a bit further along than the others so there is less 
time for the non-favorites to recover.  Still, there are four years 
yet to go.

The Favorite:

Germany (Itamar Laserson) 40% - With 11 SC's, he's got a nice 
position already, but the resistance appears to already have gelled 
against him, which means he's not assured holding onto it.  Playing 
the rivalries of his opponents against each other seems his best 
means of holding his position.

Turkey (David Ling) 25% - Positioned behind the other nations 
challenging Germany, he's well positioned for a late run for the 
lead.  It'll be a matter of timing his attacks after Germany's fall 
is assured, but before his other rivals get too powerful to attack.

Austria (Steve Janecek) 18% - If his alliance with Turkey holds, 
he's in good position to gain if Germany falls and could probably 
then carve up Russia in the aftermath.  He'd have the advantage in a 
race for centers with Turkey, but that just means he'd better stay 
wary of the stab.

France (Patrick Johnson) 9% - He's hindered by his position relative 
to Germany since Germany has got his highest concentration of force 
against him.  He also has to worry about the encroaching Turkey 
presence to the south, which would threaten to undermine any gains 
earned from Germany.  It's a tough position to win from, but it can 
certainly improve.

Russia (Bernd Wittman) 8% - He's the smallest power remaining, but 
at least he's got some compensating advantages over France, namely 
that he's more likely to gain at Germany's expense, and he's 
somewhat less tempting of a target for a stab.  Still, it is 
difficult to see him making a run for the top.

Italy (Vincent Carry) 0% - I guess technically he's alive until 
fall, but I see no reasonable way for him to recover a center.  The 
alliance between Turkey and Austria has spelled his doom.

England (Jan Willem Omlo) 0% - Another victim, this time of the 
alliance between France and Germany that France likely now regrets.




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