Re: Odds - Game 3

It gets even weirder when you factor in the alliance dynamics.
Russia-Austria vs England-Germany has been the split pretty much since day
one. At one point where was French,Italian,Austrian and Russian units all on
various Germany borders. Talk about the center of the storm!

About a year ago, Russia, seeing is fortunes fall, declared intent to work
100% towards an Austrian win. This sent the German units into Rotweiller
mode as they charged into the middle of the Austrian/Russian lines. The last
years situation has been, to say the least, confusing, but quite exciting as
well.

Could England stab Germany for an end game win? He most certainly could, and
he probably will. The German gambit is such - That it will play attack dog
seeking to reach a point where Austria decides a win is out of reach and
then must decide whether it will be England or Germany that tops. Julio will
still probably stab me for the win, but hey, he's a friend of Egg, and we
all know that Egg would never ever stab a neighbor! So perhaps I'm safe
after all!




----- Original Message ----- 
From: "naboimp" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2004 10:24 AM
Subject: [wm02-chat] Odds - Game 3


> Time for another analysis - I did one on Game 2 as well that
> apparently has not shown up yet interestingly enough.  But for now,
> I'll go on to Game 3.
>
> The favorite:
>
> England (Julio Pereira) 35% - This board is much more balanced than
> the prior two, but he has the best position here.  He's got a strong
> corner with France and Russia dissolving and Germany as an ally who
> can't really hurt him.  All he needs is to stay ahead of his two
> main rivals, and the game is won.
>
> Austria (Kester Bearne) 30% - Tied for the current lead at 9 SC's,
> he's in good position also, but unlike England, it isn't immediately
> obvious that he has any allies remaining.  On the plus side, he's
> surrounded by the weaker powers and may be able to swallow them to
> take the lead, but growing in all directions at once while also
> limiting the chance for England (especially) to grow is still an
> uphill battle.
>
> Germany (Ray Setzer) 25% - His position could be better, but it also
> could be a lot worse.  His biggest problem appears to be finding new
> growth without bumping into his two rivals, neither of which he is
> particularly well positioned to fight.  He's definitely vulnerable
> to a late game stab by England for the win, and Austria appears in
> better position to grab up centers from the weaker powers.  That all
> said, Germany does have builds he can use currently (unlike
> Austria), and if he finds a way to rally the small powers against
> Austria while beating England to other builds, his position to gain
> power grows immensely.  He's still a dark horse in this race, but I
> wouldn't count him out.
>
> Russia (Nick Benedict) 6% - He's suffered a huge blow with the loss
> of two centers, one each to Austria and Germany, but he does
> represent the balance of power between the two going forward, which
> gives him some leverage.  Using that leverage to somehow forge a
> winning position is difficult to see, but it clearly is not
> impossible in the time remaining.
>
> Turkey (John O'Donnell) 2% - He's in a bad position, but at least
> he's not in imminent danger of collapse.  Austria has a number of
> other fronts so may not be able to make Turkey's end a priority, and
> that leaves the door open for a comeback especially if Austria and
> Russia falter.
>
> France (Eric Mead) 1% - He's in roadblock mode, but there doesn't
> appear to be anyone coming to his rescue.  Assuming Germany and
> England continue working together, there's little he can do.  Still,
> there's at least a glimmer of hope that England and Germany do split.
>
> Italy (Roger Yonkoski) 1% - Austria appears to be leaving him alone
> for now so he may survive, but if his survival depends upon Austria,
> he also has little in the way of growth prospects.  Turning against
> Austria, even if successful, probably aids England and Germany,
> which also means an also ran finish.  He needs a miracle.
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>



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