Re: Re: Worst kept secrets

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "naboimp" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2004 10:28 AM
Subject: [wm02-chat] Re: Worst kept secrets


>
> This discussion is interesting, but if I read the rules correctly, a
> player who ties for board top would beat any second place player,
> and currently there appears to be a tied top in both Game 1 and Game
> 2.  Neither Game 3's Russia nor Game 5's Turkey seems likely to tie
> for top in their respective games, and I don't think they have
> access to enough centers to be 8th with a second place showing.
>
> Game 3 - Russia actually has a better shot of advancing by topping
> or sharing a board top than by trying to finish in 8th.  In my
> opinion, it basically depends upon Germany.  Together Germany and
> England can prevent Russia from taking any of their centers, and
> they can make it difficult in the Med area for Russia to take all of
> Austria's.  Even if successful in taking all of Austria's centers,
> Russia would finish at 13, only one more than England has now, and
> Germany could surely give up two centers in the final year to insure
> an English top.  On the other hand, if Germany chose to aid Russia
> instead, I think Russia tops outright.

Ohhh, I don't think there is much chance Germany will aid Russia.....In
fact, I heard a rumor that the German player will give the England any
needed dot to maintain the top.



>
> Game 5 - I don't know the dynamics on this board, but unless they
> are all conspiring to give Turkey a bunch of centers, I just don't
> see it.  He's currently got 7 and can reasonably add the current
> Austrian centers (if he's got French help) to get to 11.  Sevastopol
> is a possibility which would get him to 12, but I don't see getting
> beyond that unless France is donating his own centers to the cause
> (which perhaps he is if he thinks he can set up a shared top).  Is
> 12 enough?  I don't think so.  :)
>

The F-T is said to be exactly the deal. Although, again, if your estimation
of 11-12 not being enough, then thats a rather moot point and any meta game
deals will be looked back on as nothing more than the silly season.

Although I do have a feeling that the ties you mention are going to be
looked at very very carefully by the players on those boards. Has anyone
done the math to determine whether, by taking the tie, the players could
create a happy time deal where both of them advanced??




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