Re: Worst kept secrets

> > Game 3 - Russia actually has a better shot of advancing by 
topping
> > or sharing a board top than by trying to finish in 8th.  In my
> > opinion, it basically depends upon Germany.  Together Germany and
> > England can prevent Russia from taking any of their centers, and
> > they can make it difficult in the Med area for Russia to take 
all of
> > Austria's.  Even if successful in taking all of Austria's 
centers,
> > Russia would finish at 13, only one more than England has now, 
and
> > Germany could surely give up two centers in the final year to 
insure
> > an English top.  On the other hand, if Germany chose to aid 
Russia
> > instead, I think Russia tops outright.
> 
> Ohhh, I don't think there is much chance Germany will aid 
Russia.....In
> fact, I heard a rumor that the German player will give the England 
any
> needed dot to maintain the top.
> 

Are you sure your source knows what he's talking about?  :)

> 
> 
> >
> > Game 5 - I don't know the dynamics on this board, but unless they
> > are all conspiring to give Turkey a bunch of centers, I just 
don't
> > see it.  He's currently got 7 and can reasonably add the current
> > Austrian centers (if he's got French help) to get to 11.  
Sevastopol
> > is a possibility which would get him to 12, but I don't see 
getting
> > beyond that unless France is donating his own centers to the 
cause
> > (which perhaps he is if he thinks he can set up a shared top).  
Is
> > 12 enough?  I don't think so.  :)
> >
> 
> The F-T is said to be exactly the deal. Although, again, if your 
estimation
> of 11-12 not being enough, then thats a rather moot point and any 
meta game
> deals will be looked back on as nothing more than the silly season.
> 

Well, I could be wrong about the total, but I tend to doubt it.  I 
have my own rumor-mongering sources too.

> Although I do have a feeling that the ties you mention are going 
to be
> looked at very very carefully by the players on those boards. Has 
anyone
> done the math to determine whether, by taking the tie, the players 
could
> create a happy time deal where both of them advanced??

I don't think a tie would get more than one person into the final 
automatically since it is the highest score (with tiebreakers) from 
each board that gets there first.  At this point, I'd say the other 
player sharing in the top would almost certainly be the next highest 
score overall.  A (2-player) shared top is worth 24 + the number of 
centers.  A second place is worth 16 + the number of centers.  To 
make up the difference, the second place player would need eight 
more centers than the shared top, and that would seem virtually 
impossible. (If fewer than five players remain in the shared top 
game, it is impossible, and thus very improbable under other 
circumstances.)

From the looks of things, I'd say Game 1 is most likely of any to 
end up in a tie.  Then again, without good access to a map, I 
haven't looked that closely at Game 4.  Game 6 is already over with 
a second place at 9 centers, and Game 7 (with only a fall season to 
go) will likely end up similarly.




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