Another game headed for the finish!

Game 203 just had its spring 1909 season adjudicate, and its fall 
could be interesting as well.  The leader in this game is Germany 
with 14 centers.  A solo looks unlikely without help from the 
trailing 4th place power Russia.  (St. Petersburg and Warsaw can be 
forced, and Marseilles likely can be as well barring Russian support 
for Italy.  Russian help would insure capture of both Spain and 
Marseilles while keeping Portugal safe.  Without it, capture of both 
Spain and Marseilles without losing Portugal is doubtful.  The only 
other options for a fourth center are Vienna and Budapest, but the 
odds of success there are low.)  Russia can play kingmaker and 
that's about all since he will lose St. Petersburg for sure, already 
has lost Spain, and probably will lose Warsaw and Moscow both.

In this game, the remaining two powers are tied for second at 8 
apiece.  Right now, the Italian is just above the cutoff for 
advancement to the semis and the Turk is just below it.  Judging 
from the spring moves, they still seem to be cooperating.  Perhaps 
they believe a tie at 9 will be good enough.  (If so, then I think 
Turkey is miscalculating.)  They exchanged Greece and Serbia this 
spring and each is positioned to pick up one of Russia's centers 
(Spain and Moscow respectively).  The problem is that Marseilles 
looks vulnerable to fall to Germany, which leaves Italy short one 
(and that's assuming he gets to keep Spain).  There are several stab 
opportunities between these powers (as Italy could strike at 
Budapest, Greece, or even Bulgaria whereas Turkey could strike at 
Serbia), none of which would directly affect Germany's solo chances.

It looks like Russia is the key to the final season, and the 
question is whether he aids Germany or Italy.  As to the team 
tournament implications, a solo by Germany could move his team up to 
fourth place, but the top three are out of reach.  However, the 
elimination of Italy would pretty much end the chances for the third 
place team to move ahead of the top two.  A sole second for Italy, 
in contrast, would tighten that race considerably (though they'd 
still be in third if I'm calculating correctly).