Re: Another game headed for the finish!

Just a quick follow up:

If the Russian retreat is an indicator, no help for Italy will be 
forthcoming.  In fact, by moving to Western Med instead of Gulf of 
Lyons, the Russian can now not prevent Germany from taking 
Marseilles.  Instead, the Russian fleet now threatens Tunis.  This 
isn't that big of an issue since Italy can cover Tunis from the 
Ionian Sea.  However, that does weaken Italy's ability to attack 
Greece if the stab on Turkey was in the cards.

But just because Russia isn't looking likely to aid Italy doesn't 
mean he will aid Germany in his solo bid.  Most likely, he'll just 
take a shot at getting Spain back.  Italy's best option here is to 
offer Russia Portugal as an alternative, but I have no idea how well 
that would play.  It still doesn't save Marseilles, and Italy would 
still have to stab Turkey in order to finish second.


--- In [email protected], "naboimp" <pasns@i...> wrote:
> Game 203 just had its spring 1909 season adjudicate, and its fall 
> could be interesting as well.  The leader in this game is Germany 
> with 14 centers.  A solo looks unlikely without help from the 
> trailing 4th place power Russia.  (St. Petersburg and Warsaw can 
be 
> forced, and Marseilles likely can be as well barring Russian 
support 
> for Italy.  Russian help would insure capture of both Spain and 
> Marseilles while keeping Portugal safe.  Without it, capture of 
both 
> Spain and Marseilles without losing Portugal is doubtful.  The 
only 
> other options for a fourth center are Vienna and Budapest, but the 
> odds of success there are low.)  Russia can play kingmaker and 
> that's about all since he will lose St. Petersburg for sure, 
already 
> has lost Spain, and probably will lose Warsaw and Moscow both.
> 
> In this game, the remaining two powers are tied for second at 8 
> apiece.  Right now, the Italian is just above the cutoff for 
> advancement to the semis and the Turk is just below it.  Judging 
> from the spring moves, they still seem to be cooperating.  Perhaps 
> they believe a tie at 9 will be good enough.  (If so, then I think 
> Turkey is miscalculating.)  They exchanged Greece and Serbia this 
> spring and each is positioned to pick up one of Russia's centers 
> (Spain and Moscow respectively).  The problem is that Marseilles 
> looks vulnerable to fall to Germany, which leaves Italy short one 
> (and that's assuming he gets to keep Spain).  There are several 
stab 
> opportunities between these powers (as Italy could strike at 
> Budapest, Greece, or even Bulgaria whereas Turkey could strike at 
> Serbia), none of which would directly affect Germany's solo 
chances.
> 
> It looks like Russia is the key to the final season, and the 
> question is whether he aids Germany or Italy.  As to the team 
> tournament implications, a solo by Germany could move his team up 
to 
> fourth place, but the top three are out of reach.  However, the 
> elimination of Italy would pretty much end the chances for the 
third 
> place team to move ahead of the top two.  A sole second for Italy, 
> in contrast, would tighten that race considerably (though they'd 
> still be in third if I'm calculating correctly).


 

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