Re: Behind the curve. Very OT for ukcrypto, my apologies, but necessary.

> On 12 Mar 2020, at 21:53, Peter Fairbrother <zenadsl6186-1HOZaDBbGgxaa/[email protected]> =
wrote:
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> Please recirculate freely.
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> Behind the Curve. The Mathematics of Deaths.
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> The present United Kingdom strategy on COVID-19 was to initially try =
to contain the virus with a weak containment policy, and when that =
failed to move to the "delay phase" we are in now to try to slow its =
spread. This delay would place a lower maximum load on healthcare, =
spread heathcare requirements over time, and thereby allow more =
per-patient care.
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> An underlying assumption and consequential end result of that policy =
is that practically everybody in the UK will inevitably eventually catch =
the virus.
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> And the Red Death will hold illimitable dominion over all.
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> The strategy made sense if, as was believed when it was made, there =
would be no way of eventually stopping the epidemic by containment, =
something I myself believed.
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> However, that does not seem to be the case: the disease is not quite =
as infectious as at first thought, as recent evidence shows that the =
Chinese have managed to slow it almost to a stop using strong =
confinement.
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> If they succeed in containing the disease, as seems very likely, then =
most Chinese people will never catch the virus - whereas if the present =
UK policy is continued then at some point a majority of people in the UK =
will catch the disease, and a million people will die unnecessarily [1].
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> So what new policy should be adopted? Well we have the Chinese example =
to follow. Strong containment is working for the Chinese, it should work =
for us.
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> All people entering the UK should be quarantined. The UK has a "moat" =
in the seas surrounding it, and should take advantage of that.
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> Schools and universities should close. Large public gatherings should =
be banned.
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> People should be encouraged to wear masks, not discouraged - even a =
tiny difference in transmission rate can be the straw which will make =
the difference between the epidemic dying out or growing: that is how =
the chain reaction of an epidemic works. If each infected person infects =
more than one other person on average then the epidemic spreads, if on =
average each infected person infects less than one then the epidemic =
dies out.
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> We should be taking extreme measures to get that figure of new =
infections per case down to less than 1. Testing should be stepped up by =
at least an order of magnitude. Medical staff should have the power to =
require testing, and if positive then quarantine should be enforced if =
necessary.
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snip

I don=E2=80=99t pretend to know if you are technically right but, at =
present at least, without lots of deaths of young people which would be =
too late anyway, the population wouldn=E2=80=99t cooperate.

Roger Hayter