part 2 An Ill Wind

An Ill Wind

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XRc389TvG8

So now we know: the UK government is planning to deliberately infect 60% 
to 80% of the population, over 40 million UK citizens with COVID-19; 
causing, on their own figures, 400,000 deaths. It has already begun.

The reason given is to develop "herd immunity"; where practically 
everybody has had the virus and is immune, so that there is nobody 
susceptible for someone who later contracts it to give it to.

But the Chinese didn't do that. They implemented strong containment and 
isolation and stopped the virus dead. They didn't "lessen the peak", 
they obliterated the peak.

Less than one hundredth of 1% of the population caught the disease.

There is no reason why we can't do that too.



Yet the Government insists on buying herd immunity at the cost of at 
least 400,000 (more likely a million [1]) deaths. Why? What good would 
herd immunity, bought at such a terrible cost, do?

One reason given is that the Government believes that COVID-19 will turn 
into a seasonal disease, and herd immunity might protect us from it's 
return next year.

There are two big problems with that. First, we don't know whether it 
will return at all. SARS didn't, MERS didn't.

Second, if it does return next year, it will have mutated - and like 
flu, it is reasonably likely that this year's herd immunity, so dearly 
bought, will not be effective against next year's version, if it happens.

There is also concern about people in China who seem to have gotten the 
disease twice. We don't know why that is, whether it is two different 
strains [2] of the virus or people getting the same disease twice - 
however either would lower the usefulness of any herd immunity.

-

So, I don't see why the UK Government are deliberately killing 400,000 
people.

Apparently it isn't because the UK has a large proportion of older 
people. Older people who need extensive healthcare, expensive pensions, 
who tie up a lot of wealth and property - of the predicted 400,000 
(million) deaths the vast majority would be of older people.

This clearing away of unproductive and expensive (and wealthy) older 
population would more than balance the budget, releasing £10 billion per 
year in state pensions, £20 billion per year in heathcare costs, and so on.

It would stop the disease in the UK fairly quickly, and it would be the 
cheapest option (ignoring the actuarial but not-real-pounds cost of the 
deaths).

It would release several hundred thousand badly-needed homes (and cause 
a property price crash; the UK needs about 1 million homes, which is why 
UK property is so expensive) and would provide a more balanced 
population pyramid.

So for the UK as a nation it would not be a bad thing (ignoring the 
deaths), and I fear some politicians may think "Hey, it's just the 
useless oldies, who cares?".

-

But no. There is probably another reason why we don't implement strong 
confinement and stop the virus in its tracks, rather than letting it 
have its way. Unfortunately I don't know what that reason is.

If it is just a gamble on herd immunity, that is not a gamble anybody 
sane would take now - we do not know enough about the virus to say if it 
will work this year, or whether it will be of any use in future years.

If it turns out to be a step worth taking - but we do not have to take 
that step now. We can wait a year or two to find out more about the 
virus, develop a vaccine or a cure, prepare - while putting up with a 
trickle of infections, and a total death count in the hundreds or 
perhaps low thousands, not hundreds of thousands.



Peter Fairbrother


[1] I calculate around a million deaths, but that is a back-of-the 
envelope calculation based on known death rates elsewhere and 
comparative population age spreads. Exact figures are not available as 
they would depend on things we do not know about the disease. I have 
made what I think are reasonable assumptions. I don't know how 
reasonable the Goverment's assumptions are, or how they came up with the 
400,000 figure.

[2] there are now several hundred known varieties of the COVID-19 virus, 
it mutates fairly rapidly