[Scalzi] Oscar predictions 2011

http://whatever.scalzi.com/2011/01/26/oscar-predictions-2011/

Oscar Predictions, 2011
>
> *In my capacity as a professional film commentator* of two decades
> standing — seriously, I started my job as a film critic in 1991, MAN I AM
> OLD — it’s time for my annual Oscar predictions. This is the first stab, and
> then a couple days before the actual ceremony I’ll make any adjustments and
> corrections I feel like. Got it? Let’s begin.
>
> *BEST PICTURE*
>
> “Black Swan”
> “The Fighter”
> “Inception”
> “The Kids Are All Right ”
> “The King’s Speech”
> “127 Hours”
> “The Social Network”
> “Toy Story 3″
> “True Grit”
> “Winter’s Bone”
>
> Since the Academy switched over to the “ten nominees” slate, I see the Best
> Picture slate functioning two ways. The first is a very self-conscious
> attempt by the Academy to celebrate the diversity of film by suggesting all
> these films, blockbuster and indie, animated and live action, science
> fiction and social study, all represent the best film making has to offer.
> And in that respect, yup, it sure is a nice spread of films. Well done,
> Academy; we’ll all very impressed out here.
>
> The other way, of course, is as a slate to pick the eventual winner from,
> and in that respect, as a practical matter, we can throw out any film that
> didn’t also pick up a Best Director nod, since in the 80-some years of the
> Oscars, only three films have won Best Picture without their director
> getting a nomination, and the last time was more than two decades ago. So
> that’s* Inception, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3 *and *Winter’s
> Bone *out the window to start.
>
> Of those that remain I think *Black Swan *and *The Fighter* are next out
> the window; their rewards are likely to be in the acting categories. *True
> Grit* is next out; a similar Coen brothers film (*No Country For Old Men*)
> won Best Picture just a couple of years ago, so I don’t really see the
> Academy repeating itself so soon.
>
> That leaves *The Social Network *and *The King’s Speech* to duke it out. *The
> Social Network* is *probably *the better film from the standpoint of
> social relevance and simple art, and it’s vacuumed up all sorts of run-up
> awards, but I think there might be a concern that it’s peaked just a little
> too soon.* The King’s Speech*, on the other hand, is very handsome and
> very well acted and very much in the Academy sweet spot. So it’s really
> going to come down to whether the Academy wants to pretend it’s hip or admit
> it wants to be in bed by ten.
>
> *What will win: *At this point, I’m thinking *The King’s Speech *is going
> to pull a *Shakespeare in Love *on us.
>
> *What should win: **The Social Network*. As much as I dislike Facebook,
> this film is a set piece for What The World Is Like Now, for better or
> worse.
>
>
>
> *BEST DIRECTOR*
>
> Darren Aronofsky for “Black Swan”
> Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “True Grit”
> David Fincher for “The Social Network”
> Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech”
> David O. Russell for “The Fighter”
>
> Russell out first; he’s happy he has his career back. I think the Coens are
> next off; it’s not that they don’t deserve the award, but they each have a
> couple of these on their shelf and, again, *True Grit *is not too far off
> from what they’ve been awarded for before. Aronofsky is still too weird; I
> think one accurate comparison for him perceptually — directing wise, not in
> his personal inclinations — is Roman Polanski; someone whose talent is
> undeniable but too aggressively off-center for the middle-of-the-road
> Academy voter to warm up to. Black Swan is sort of his *Rosemary’s Baby*,
> if you get what I mean.
>
> So this leave Tom Hooper and David Fincher, whose films are the ones I
> expect will go neck and neck for the Best Picture Oscar. Hooper’s major
> problem, simply put, is: Dude, who is Tom Hooper? Well, he’s done some TV
> and a couple small British films. He’s kind of like 2011′s version of Hugh
> Hudson: In the right place at the right time with the right film, but not
> necessarily with enough recognition to get him over the finish line.
>
> However, David Fincher *does *have the recognition: He was here before
> with Benjamin Button, and although his career has been stylized and
> idiosyncratic — *Seven, Fight Club, Zodiac* — he’s matured, i.e., hasn’t
> sunk himself into the black hole of his own stylistic choices. Also, since I
> think the Academy is likely to play it safe with Best Picture this year, I
> think giving Fincher the director Oscar will make the voters feel they’ve
> given his film sufficient recognition. In the *Shakespeare in Love*scenario, Fincher is Steven Spielberg. And that doesn’t suck.
>
> *Who will win: *Fincher
>
> *Who should win: *Fincher
>
>
>
> *BEST ACTOR*
>
> Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
> Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
> Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
> James Franco in “127 Hours”
> Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
>
> Academy screener DVDs were sufficient to get Bardem on the ballot; good for
> him. They’re not going to get him the award. Jesse Eisenberg is just happy
> to be here. Likewise, I think James Franco is pleased as punch that he’s
> being taken seriously, although frankly the man’s sudden ascent in the realm
> of serious acting still has me feeling a little flat-footed. He was so
> shouty in those Spider-Man films, you know? If Jeff Bridges hadn’t won last
> year for *Crazy Heart*, I would say this would be his year, but he did,
> and it was a career sort of award, and you don’t win two career awards.
>
> That leaves Colin Firth, who was nominated last year, did a fine job this
> year, and who has the good fortune of being in a film that I suspect will
> suck in a bunch of awards and therefore would have enough momentum for him
> to take this even if he wasn’t deserving of it, which he is.
>
> *Who will win:* Firth
>
> *Who should win:* Firth
>
>
>
> *BEST ACTRESS*
>
> Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
> Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
> Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
> Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
> Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
>
> Jennifer Lawrence off first; a fine performance but she’s young and I don’t
> think anyone thinks she’s paid her dues yet. Nicole Kidman off next; she’s
> in this year’s “Meryl Streep” slot, i.e., “Academy members had four
> nominees, couldn’t think of a fifth and there was the screener DVD right in
> front of them.” Michelle Williams has come a long way from *Dawson’s Creek
> * and has a previous nomination, but I’m not sure *Blue Valentine* is the
> film that’s going to take her all the way.
>
> So we’re left with Bening and Portman. I have a soft spot for Bening, who I
> think should probably have won an Oscar by now, and who may yet if enough
> voters are in a “career award” sort of mood this year. But on the other hand
> Portman is The Actress of The Moment, with a hit film, an envious commercial
> and critical pedigree, is happily engaged and pregnant and, not
> inconsiderably, represents the Academy’s most rational way to award *Black
> Swan* with an Oscar. I’m pretty sure it’s hers.
>
> *Who will win:* Portman
>
> *Who should win:* Bening. I think career awards are perfectly *fine*.
>
>
>
> *SUPPORTING ACTOR*
>
> Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
> John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
> Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
> Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
> Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
>
> Dear John Hawkes: Enjoy it, dude. You too, Ruffalo. Jeremy Renner: you’re
> having a heck of a couple of years. Don’t do anything stupid. Geoffrey Rush
> could take this if the voters are being lazy and just checking off every
> time *The King’s Speech* is on the ballot, but I very strongly suspect
> that Christian Bale’s walking about the door with the Oscar, both for his
> meth-tastic performance and also because this is how the Academy will choose
> to say “nice job” to *The Fighter*.
>
> *Who will win:* Bale
>
> *Who should win:* Bale.
>
>
>
> *SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
>
> Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
> Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
> Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
> Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
> Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
>
> This category is always the hardest to handicap (i.e., the one I always
> screw up) because, honestly, I don’t think even the Academy members know who
> to choose in this category, in the years where Woody Allen doesn’t make it
> easy for them. That said, everyone I know says this year is likely to come
> down to a fight between Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, and I don’t really see
> any reason to doubt that. If it does come down to the two of them, the coin
> flip I just did points to Adams.
>
> *Who will win: *Adams.
>
> *Who should win: *Steinfeld, with the note that she’s as much a
> “supporting actress” in *True Grit* as Jeff Bridges is a supporting actor.
>
> *Other categories:* I’m having a hard time imagining a world in which* Toy
> Story 3* doesn’t win the Animated Film Oscar. In screenplays, I think
> Aaron Sorkin is a good bet for Adapted, and I think *Inception *actually
> has a chance at Original, by way of consolation for Chris Nolan being
> stiffed in the director category. I suspect *Inception *may also sneak off
> with Cinematography. I would be chuffed if *The Social Network* won
> original score, because the idea of Trent Reznor being an Oscar winner fills
> me with glee. Finally, I and every science fiction geek in the known
> universe is rooting for “The Lost Thing” in the Animated Short category,
> because Shaun Tan is one of our own. Go, Shaun! Go!
>


Johne Cook
| http://raygunrevival.com | http://authorculture.blogspot.com |

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