Re: [Scalzi] Oscar predictions 2011

Mike,
If you're a lover of great film and great stories, see Toy Story 3. Forget
it's an animated film. It's a caper film of the highest water, genuinely
engaging, funny, thrilling, shocking, and ultimately satisfying. They
literally take the characters to the brink of toy hell. What happens next is
both logical and setup throughout the series. More than anything, it
celebrates diverse friendships and posits that we don't have to sit back and
accept apparently unavoidable destiny - we each have the opportunity (and
dare I say obligation) to make the best of our lives.

I showed the film to my wife on New Year's Eve. She was resistant at first
("I don't like cartoons") but was crying and smiling and clapping at the
end.

It's a legitimately entertaining film if you can get past the medium.

Johne Cook
| http://raygunrevival.com | http://authorculture.blogspot.com |


On Fri, Jan 28, 2011 at 1:44 PM, Mike Findlay <[email protected]>wrote:

>   Not having seen many of the films he’s talking about, (saw True Grit
> which I thought was great), I appreciate seeing his reasoning.  They seem to
> make sense.  I will say, without having seen the others, that Hailee
> Steinfeld’s performance was certainly worthy of an Oscar, although she could
> have been nominated in the Best Actress category.
>
> FWIW,
>
> My list of nominated films in the order I want, (or wanted), to see them.
>
> “True Grit” – if I hadn’t seen any of them I would still want to see this
> one first.  Coen Bros. and Jeff Bridges – nuff said.
> “Inception” – I must say this is a big screen only film for me.  I saw it
> on HD pay per view and wasn’t nearly as impressed.
> “The Fighter” – I’ve heard a lot of Bale’s performance and I’d like to see
> him get back to what he is capable of.
> “The King’s Speech”*
> “127 Hours”               *
> “The Social Network”*
> “Black Swan” -  Ballet, meh; Portman/Kunis, heh.
> “The Kids Are All Right ” – This placement is based on the assumption the
> Who song by the name is on the soundtrack.
> “Toy Story 3″ – If I had younger kids I’m sure I would have seen this one
> already, as it is I can’t muster much interest.
> “Winter’s Bone” – I don’t know anything about this one.  If I did it might
> be higher on my list.
>
> * I don’t have a preference between these three.  The King’s Speech sounds
> like a movie I’d like, the story behind 127 Hours is
>  certainly a compelling one, and The Social Network sounds like and
> interesting take on the Facebook story even if it isn’t all that accurate –
> the hype surrounding it probably knocked it out of third; I tend to think
> that a thing can never live up to its hype.
>  **
> Mike F.
> **
> **
> **
> **
> **
> *From:* Johne Cook <[email protected]>
> *Sent:* Friday, January 28, 2011 1:07 PM
> *To:* DADL (off topic) <[email protected]>
> *Subject:* [DADL-OT] [Scalzi] Oscar predictions 2011
>
> http://whatever.scalzi.com/2011/01/26/oscar-predictions-2011/
>
>  Oscar Predictions, 2011
>>
>> *In my capacity as a professional film commentator* of two decades
>> standing — seriously, I started my job as a film critic in 1991, MAN I AM
>> OLD — it’s time for my annual Oscar predictions. This is the first stab, and
>> then a couple days before the actual ceremony I’ll make any adjustments and
>> corrections I feel like. Got it? Let’s begin.
>>
>> *BEST PICTURE*
>>
>> “Black Swan”
>> “The Fighter”
>> “Inception”
>> “The Kids Are All Right ”
>> “The King’s Speech”
>> “127 Hours”
>> “The Social Network”
>> “Toy Story 3″
>> “True Grit”
>> “Winter’s Bone”
>>
>> Since the Academy switched over to the “ten nominees” slate, I see the
>> Best Picture slate functioning two ways. The first is a very self-conscious
>> attempt by the Academy to celebrate the diversity of film by suggesting all
>> these films, blockbuster and indie, animated and live action, science
>> fiction and social study, all represent the best film making has to offer.
>> And in that respect, yup, it sure is a nice spread of films. Well done,
>> Academy; we’ll all very impressed out here.
>>
>> The other way, of course, is as a slate to pick the eventual winner from,
>> and in that respect, as a practical matter, we can throw out any film that
>> didn’t also pick up a Best Director nod, since in the 80-some years of the
>> Oscars, only three films have won Best Picture without their director
>> getting a nomination, and the last time was more than two decades ago. So
>> that’s* Inception, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3 *and *Winter’s
>> Bone *out the window to start.
>>
>> Of those that remain I think *Black Swan *and *The Fighter* are next out
>> the window; their rewards are likely to be in the acting categories. *True
>> Grit* is next out; a similar Coen brothers film (*No Country For Old Men*)
>> won Best Picture just a couple of years ago, so I don’t really see the
>> Academy repeating itself so soon.
>>
>> That leaves *The Social Network *and *The King’s Speech* to duke it out.
>> *The Social Network* is *probably *the better film from the standpoint of
>> social relevance and simple art, and it’s vacuumed up all sorts of run-up
>> awards, but I think there might be a concern that it’s peaked just a little
>> too soon.* The King’s Speech*, on the other hand, is very handsome and
>> very well acted and very much in the Academy sweet spot. So it’s really
>> going to come down to whether the Academy wants to pretend it’s hip or admit
>> it wants to be in bed by ten.
>>
>> *What will win: *At this point, I’m thinking *The King’s Speech *is going
>> to pull a *Shakespeare in Love *on us.
>>
>> *What should win: **The Social Network*. As much as I dislike Facebook,
>> this film is a set piece for What The World Is Like Now, for better or
>> worse.
>>
>>
>>
>> *BEST DIRECTOR*
>>
>> Darren Aronofsky for “Black Swan”
>> Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “True Grit”
>> David Fincher for “The Social Network”
>> Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech”
>> David O. Russell for “The Fighter”
>>
>> Russell out first; he’s happy he has his career back. I think the Coens
>> are next off; it’s not that they don’t deserve the award, but they each have
>> a couple of these on their shelf and, again, *True Grit *is not too far
>> off from what they’ve been awarded for before. Aronofsky is still too weird;
>> I think one accurate comparison for him perceptually — directing wise, not
>> in his personal inclinations — is Roman Polanski; someone whose talent is
>> undeniable but too aggressively off-center for the middle-of-the-road
>> Academy voter to warm up to. Black Swan is sort of his *Rosemary’s Baby*,
>> if you get what I mean.
>>
>> So this leave Tom Hooper and David Fincher, whose films are the ones I
>> expect will go neck and neck for the Best Picture Oscar. Hooper’s major
>> problem, simply put, is: Dude, who is Tom Hooper? Well, he’s done some TV
>> and a couple small British films. He’s kind of like 2011′s version of Hugh
>> Hudson: In the right place at the right time with the right film, but not
>> necessarily with enough recognition to get him over the finish line.
>>
>> However, David Fincher *does *have the recognition: He was here before
>> with Benjamin Button, and although his career has been stylized and
>> idiosyncratic — *Seven, Fight Club, Zodiac* — he’s matured, i.e., hasn’t
>> sunk himself into the black hole of his own stylistic choices. Also, since I
>> think the Academy is likely to play it safe with Best Picture this year, I
>> think giving Fincher the director Oscar will make the voters feel they’ve
>> given his film sufficient recognition. In the *Shakespeare in Love*scenario, Fincher is Steven Spielberg. And that doesn’t suck.
>>
>> *Who will win: *Fincher
>>
>> *Who should win: *Fincher
>>
>>
>>
>> *BEST ACTOR*
>>
>> Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
>> Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
>> Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
>> James Franco in “127 Hours”
>> Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
>>
>> Academy screener DVDs were sufficient to get Bardem on the ballot; good
>> for him. They’re not going to get him the award. Jesse Eisenberg is just
>> happy to be here. Likewise, I think James Franco is pleased as punch that
>> he’s being taken seriously, although frankly the man’s sudden ascent in the
>> realm of serious acting still has me feeling a little flat-footed. He was so
>> shouty in those Spider-Man films, you know? If Jeff Bridges hadn’t won last
>> year for *Crazy Heart*, I would say this would be his year, but he did,
>> and it was a career sort of award, and you don’t win two career awards.
>>
>> That leaves Colin Firth, who was nominated last year, did a fine job this
>> year, and who has the good fortune of being in a film that I suspect will
>> suck in a bunch of awards and therefore would have enough momentum for him
>> to take this even if he wasn’t deserving of it, which he is.
>>
>> *Who will win:* Firth
>>
>> *Who should win:* Firth
>>
>>
>>
>> *BEST ACTRESS*
>>
>> Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
>> Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
>> Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
>> Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
>> Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
>>
>> Jennifer Lawrence off first; a fine performance but she’s young and I
>> don’t think anyone thinks she’s paid her dues yet. Nicole Kidman off next;
>> she’s in this year’s “Meryl Streep” slot, i.e., “Academy members had four
>> nominees, couldn’t think of a fifth and there was the screener DVD right in
>> front of them.” Michelle Williams has come a long way from *Dawson’s
>> Creek* and has a previous nomination, but I’m not sure *Blue Valentine*is the film that’s going to take her all the way.
>>
>> So we’re left with Bening and Portman. I have a soft spot for Bening, who
>> I think should probably have won an Oscar by now, and who may yet if enough
>> voters are in a “career award” sort of mood this year. But on the other hand
>> Portman is The Actress of The Moment, with a hit film, an envious commercial
>> and critical pedigree, is happily engaged and pregnant and, not
>> inconsiderably, represents the Academy’s most rational way to award *Black
>> Swan* with an Oscar. I’m pretty sure it’s hers.
>>
>> *Who will win:* Portman
>>
>> *Who should win:* Bening. I think career awards are perfectly *fine*.
>>
>>
>>
>> *SUPPORTING ACTOR*
>>
>> Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
>> John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
>> Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
>> Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
>> Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
>>
>> Dear John Hawkes: Enjoy it, dude. You too, Ruffalo. Jeremy Renner: you’re
>> having a heck of a couple of years. Don’t do anything stupid. Geoffrey Rush
>> could take this if the voters are being lazy and just checking off every
>> time *The King’s Speech* is on the ballot, but I very strongly suspect
>> that Christian Bale’s walking about the door with the Oscar, both for his
>> meth-tastic performance and also because this is how the Academy will choose
>> to say “nice job” to *The Fighter*.
>>
>> *Who will win:* Bale
>>
>> *Who should win:* Bale.
>>
>>
>>
>> *SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
>>
>> Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
>> Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
>> Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
>> Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
>> Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
>>
>> This category is always the hardest to handicap (i.e., the one I always
>> screw up) because, honestly, I don’t think even the Academy members know who
>> to choose in this category, in the years where Woody Allen doesn’t make it
>> easy for them. That said, everyone I know says this year is likely to come
>> down to a fight between Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, and I don’t really see
>> any reason to doubt that. If it does come down to the two of them, the coin
>> flip I just did points to Adams.
>>
>> *Who will win: *Adams.
>>
>> *Who should win: *Steinfeld, with the note that she’s as much a
>> “supporting actress” in *True Grit* as Jeff Bridges is a supporting
>> actor.
>>
>> *Other categories:* I’m having a hard time imagining a world in which*Toy Story 3
>> * doesn’t win the Animated Film Oscar. In screenplays, I think Aaron
>> Sorkin is a good bet for Adapted, and I think *Inception *actually has a
>> chance at Original, by way of consolation for Chris Nolan being stiffed in
>> the director category. I suspect *Inception *may also sneak off with
>> Cinematography. I would be chuffed if *The Social Network* won original
>> score, because the idea of Trent Reznor being an Oscar winner fills me with
>> glee. Finally, I and every science fiction geek in the known universe is
>> rooting for “The Lost Thing” in the Animated Short category, because Shaun
>> Tan is one of our own. Go, Shaun! Go!
>>
>
>
> Johne Cook
> | http://raygunrevival.com | http://authorculture.blogspot.com |
>
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