Polls suggest Obama far from a shoo-in to win the 2012 presidential election

http://www.macleans.ca/article.jsp?content=w6634505

April 21, 2011 - 16:40
Lee-Anne Goodman, The Canadian Press

WASHINGTON - It's been the conventional wisdom for months -- U.S. 
President Barack Obama is in good shape to win the 2012 election, thanks 
in part to a Republican field populated by potential candidates like Sarah 
Palin, Donald Trump, Newt Gingrich and Michele Bachmann.

And yet recent polls are suggesting 2012 is far from a sure thing for the 
president. Since he announced his re-election bid two weeks ago, his 
approval ratings have been steadily slipping as Americans fume about 
rising gasoline prices and the enduring ill health of the U.S. economy.

A new ABC/Washington Post survey puts Obama's approval rating at 47 per 
cent, with 50 per cent expressing disapproval. That's a drop of four 
percentage points in a similar poll a month ago.

For the White House, perhaps the most chilling statistic in the ABC/Post 
poll is this one: among independents -- now the biggest and most powerful 
bloc of American voters -- Obama's disapproval rate has risen to 55 per 
cent, again fuelled by economic concerns. Winning over the independents 
will be the key to presidential victory in 2012.

Another poll, this one by Gallup, has found that Obama's ninth quarter in 
office has him at the lowest point in his presidency, with his job 
approval rating slipping to 43 per cent and to as low as 41 per cent on 
two separate occasions earlier this month.

And a Rasmussen Reports survey published Thursday has found that just 22 
per cent of likely U.S. voters believe the country is heading in the right 
direction. That ties with the lowest level of Obama's presidency, back in 
mid-March.

"Whenever you're the president, you're going to be held accountable for 
events, whether they're of your creation or not," David Axelrod, a 
longtime Obama strategist, told the Wall Street Journal this week. "That's 
just part of the deal."

Americans, indeed, don't care whose fault it is. All signs suggest that 
unless the economy improves significantly in the next 19 months, Obama 
could face defeat at the polls, especially if Republicans choose a 
respected mainstream candidate, like Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Jon 
Huntsman or Tim Pawlenty.

Romney, in fact, is considered the one candidate who could beat Obama, 
according to the ABC/Post poll. Whether the Republican base, many of them 
Christian evangelicals, gives a Mormon the nomination remains to be seen.

One observer points out that there's lots of time for the situation to 
change.

"The economy is starting to turn around a bit, so while his poll numbers 
are bleak right now, any improvement in the economic situation will be to 
his advantage," Victoria Mantzopolous, a political science professor at 
the University of Detroit Mercy, said Thursday.

"I see similarities to the situation Ronald Reagan faced at about the same 
stage of his presidency. The economy started to improve, his numbers went 
up and he won re-election."

Others see parallels to the scene in 1992. With the economy in trouble and 
unemployment climbing to eight per cent, George H.W. Bush was nonetheless 
considered a shoo-in for re-election based on the supposed weakness of 
potential Democratic candidates.

Enter Bill Clinton, whose chief campaign strategist, James Carville, 
famously pointed out what issue was of paramount concern to Americans that 
year: "It's the economy, stupid."

Democrats gave Clinton the nomination, and by July of '92, he'd pulled 
ahead of Bush and was on his way to a two-term presidency.

The D.C. contention -- among Democrats and Republicans alike -- that Obama 
could easily dispose of someone like Trump or Palin explains why some of 
the most influential conservative voices in the United States have been 
railing for weeks against the presidential aspirations of fringe 
candidates.

The venom they've aimed at Palin for months has now been redirected at 
Trump, the mouthy billionaire with a hairstyle as eyebrow-raising as some 
of his recent proclamations. His popularity is nonetheless surging among 
Republican voters.

Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer called Trump "our Al 
Sharpton, no more, no less" in weekend remarks, a reference to the widely 
discredited African-American civil rights activist.

Karl Rove, George W. Bush's chief strategist, has assailed Trump's remarks 
that he's unconvinced of Obama's citizenship, saying the real estate mogul 
is part of the "nutty right" and as a result is "not consequential" as a 
potential candidate.

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