Re: and leading her majesty's loyal opposition ... the NDP?

On Thu, 21 Apr 2011, Peter Chattaway wrote:
> If there is, indeed, a chance that the NDP could garner the second-most 
> seats, both within Quebec and outside of it, then, well, that would 
> change everything.

And now this:

- - -

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/to-counter-ndps-quebec-gains-ignatieff-touts-real-political-experience/article1994618/

Waking up in Montreal to stunning polls showing the NDP is suddenly the 
first choice of Quebeckers, [Liberal leader] Michael Ignatieff is 
campaigning in two urban ridings where not even big-name candidates in the 
province can assure Liberal wins. . . .

- - -

This is really, really amazing.  And not just because the Bloc Quebecois 
has been dominating that province for the past 20 years.

I just went through the Wikipedia pages for all of the Canadian elections 
going back to 1935 (i.e. the first election that took place after the 
formation of the CCF, the party that became the NDP in 1961), and as far 
as I can tell, the CCF/NDP have won only one seat in Quebec in their 
entire history -- and that was in the *last* election, in 2008.

Here are the stats, listing the year, the number of seats the CCF/NDP won 
across the entire country, and the number of seats they won in Quebec:

    2008 - 37 - 1
    2006 - 29 - 0
    2004 - 19 - 0
    2000 - 13 - 0
    1997 - 21 - 0
    1993 -  9 - 0
    1988 - 43 - 0
    1984 - 30 - 0
    1980 - 32 - 0
    1979 - 26 - 0
    1974 - 16 - 0
    1972 - 31 - 0
    1968 - 22 - 0
    1965 - 21 - 0
    1963 - 17 - 0
    1962 - 19 - 0
    1958 -  8 - 0
    1957 - 25 - 0
    1953 - 23 - 0
    1949 - 13 - 0
    1945 - 28 - 0
    1940 -  8 - 0
    1935 -  7 - 0

Now, as a general rule, it has been difficult for any party to win a 
majority government in this country without winning a solid majority of 
Quebec's seats, and certainly the only Conservative majorities in the past 
80 years (in 1958, 1984 and 1988) were won with the help of solid 
majorities in Quebec, which were pretty unusual since Quebec had been a 
Liberal stronghold going back to the late 19th century.

But the appearance of the separatist Bloc Quebecois -- which won 54 of the 
available 75 seats in Quebec in 1993 -- changed all that, of course, and 
the Bloc has had a majority of Quebec's seats to one degree or another 
ever since.  (It has always won between 38 and 54 seats.)

So the national parties have been able to rule, to one degree or another, 
*without* any strong representation in Quebec for the past 20 years.  From 
1993 to 2000, the Liberals were able to win majority governments without 
Quebec because the right-wing vote was divided between two parties. 
Then, from 2004 to 2008, first the Liberals and then the Conservatives won 
*minority* governments because the right-wing vote was united, but Quebec 
remained largely in the hands of the Bloc Quebecois.

For the past 20 years, it's kind of been assumed that if Quebec voters 
ever turn away from the separatists and back to the federalists, that they 
will cast their votes in a Liberal or maybe even Conservative direction. 
But things don't seem to be turning out that way ...

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