The polls are hard to figure out at this stage. It depends on a lot of things (gas prices rise and the right/wrong track divide increases along with drops Presidential approval ratings) not the least of which-who is he running against. Until then, declaring an outcome is a fools game. A lot can change in either direction by the time the Republican Nominee is chosen...and that's a factor as well. Take Trump, for instance. I agree with Mike that he should not be under estimated in appealing for the Republican ticket... but I think Trump over-estimates his generally popularity with voters outside the Republican base.
Trying to predict a win or loss when we don't know who is running against him is pretty pointless. Afterall, a "Generic Republican" still fares better overall any of the actual candidates up against Obama.
It's interesting that the article ignores polling indications that show large numbers of Republicans and even self identitfied Tea Party members opposing Republican plans that involve eliminating medicare and medicade. The Republican candidates *could* face voter opposition from within if they support the Ryan plan.
Thom
http://thomwade.wordpress.com/
http://www.cafepress.com/Thomwade
http://www.in-one-ear.com
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