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There are well understood practices and techniques that will allow to determine how long something will last. Once one knows how something degrades, (oxidation or other chemical reactions, radiation, heat, whatever) one applies more of whatever does the cumulative damage until it breaks -- for electrical motor, for instance, that is running them at maximum power, day and night, non stop, until they wear out. Additionally, one can take a very large sample of test articles and wait until the first few units break down under accelerated aging, and derive statistics that link failure with usage; the expected lifetime is one that will see less than a given percentage unit failing.
That is how they know. It is called science.
CBVG