FW: [NFPA] Bush Sidestepping Energy And The Environment

 
-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]]
On Behalf Of Andrew George
Sent: February 25, 2004 10:35 AM
To: NFPA News
Subject: [NFPA] Bush Sidestepping Energy And The Environment


OUTSIDE INFLUENCES
Sidestepping Energy And The Environment

   Taking a page from their successful 2000 campaign playbook,
Republican and conservative political operatives are planning to
essentially exclude energy and environmental issues from
President Bush's broad campaign platform, confident that they
will not play a significant role in this year's election.

   To be sure, Bush will not completely abandon either issue --
expect to see a major Earth Day announcement, periodic photo-ops
at national parks and "green" energy projects during the
election season. But neither issue is expected to become a major
theme of Bush's campaign, and most sources predict the GOP will
spend little energy attempting to deflect criticism from
environmentalists or Democrats.

   For instance, an energy industry lobbyist argued that much of
the recent emphasis that the Democratic presidential
frontrunner, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, has placed on
these issues -- particularly in repeated critiques of Bush's
energy policies -- can essentially be chalked up to playing to
the party's base during the primary, when environmental concerns
have historically been most prevalent on the campaign trail. The
source predicted that once the general election is fully under
way, Kerry will likely shift to a more moderate stance, and the
environmental attacks on Bush will become more sporadic, making
a coordinated response much less necessary.

   Additionally, this and other industry sources argued that
aside from a major ecological disaster occurring sometime before
the November election, most environmental issues confronting the
nation today are simply too technical to be easily boiled down
into campaign-friendly rhetoric.

   Similarly, conservatives have no plans to become involved in
the issue. A source with the Club for Growth, one of the biggest
and most successful conservative political machines in the
country, said the group would likely not pay much attention to
either issue over the next nine months. This source noted that
neither the environment nor energy has emerged as an issue in
the group's recent polling, and the group will almost certainly
not divert resources to addressing them this year.

   The source also said that even in cases where the eventual
Democratic candidate or his allies take aim at Bush's
environmental and energy records, conservative groups and the
White House would almost certainly ignore these attacks. "I
doubt there'd be a direct response on those issues," the source
said. The source also echoed the industry lobbyists' argument
that environmental issues' biggest impact comes during the
Democratic primary battles for party faithful, arguing it is
unlikely Bush would choose to engage Democrats "on their field."

   But one conservative activist warned that ignoring the issue
might be a mistake. The source noted that given the amount of
energy Kerry continues to spend on the environment -- he has
made several policy speeches on climate change, for instance,
and virtually all of his ads to date have mentioned Bush's ties
to energy companies -- it would be a mistake to assume Kerry may
not try to use it as a bludgeon against Bush.

   Additionally, with environmental and progressive groups
building significant hard and soft money war chests for the
general election, this activist warned that not being proactive
on the environment could force Bush into fighting "a rear guard
action" during the campaign. During the 2000 campaign, in the
hopes of limiting green critiques, advisers to Bush inserted
into one of the candidate's speeches language endorsing limits
on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants -- a pledge Bush
abandoned once elected.

   Finally, virtually all conservatives and other Republicans
noted that history bears out their belief that neither the
environment nor energy plays on the big stage of a general
election, and there are no examples of either issue playing a
significant factor in the outcome of an election. And while this
may be true, a handful of caveats should at least be considered
as we head to Nov. 2.

   Unlike previous election cycles, environmentalists and their
progressive allies stand to play a key role in this election
because of the amount of money they have raised and the
coordinated nature of their planned activities. According to
federal data collected by Political MoneyLine, 527 groups
affiliated with progressive organizations like MoveOn.org and
the League of Conservation Voters in 2004 raised $39 million,
close to 40 percent of the total 527 contributions last year.

   And unlike previous years, these groups are closely connected
both philosophically and financially, often donating to each
other and planning strategy on a regular basis. Democratic
operatives said Bush's connections to the energy industry and
his industry-friendly policies will be a key part of their
general campaign theme that the administration is beholden to
moneyed interests.

   And then there's a potentially intriguing wildcard -- Ralph
Nader. While Democrats fear, and Republicans hope, he will pull
away potential Kerry voters, there is a second possibility.
Nader could play the same role in the general election that
former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean played in the primary --
bringing in hard-left voters into the electoral process and
galvanizing anti-Bush sentiments, only to see that support shift
to Kerry on Election Day.  By John Stanton
-- 
-- 

Nicole Anzia

The Wilderness Society

202 429 2692 (p)

202 429 3945 (f)

http://www.wilderness.org
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