Re: Indian IT was in trouble before Trump
Ratnendra Pandey <[email protected]> Mon, 20 Feb 2017 06:46:44 +0000
| Newsgroups | gmane.org.telecom.india-gii |
|---|---|
| Message-ID | <BY2PR01MB18804EFC880132A160CB2F8C85E0@BY2PR01MB188.prod.exchangelabs.com> |
--===============7274973750084818010== Content-Language: en-US Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="_000_BY2PR01MB18804EFC880132A160CB2F8C85E0BY2PR01MB188prodex_" --_000_BY2PR01MB18804EFC880132A160CB2F8C85E0BY2PR01MB188prodex_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable The reader comments at the bottom of the article in the link nicely capture the state of supply and demand. In the last 25 years, the hourly rates have dropped significantly and most of the ICT (internet and computation technology) workers who earning at the lower range of salary distribution are hardly earning enough to justify to be even in this line of work. ICT boom of last decade was an revolutionary proportions that takes place once in 100 years of so. The shift from agrarian to industrial society started with Industrial revolution and invention of steam engine (1698) in England. Then came Railways (1825) and trans-oceanic shipping(1819) both powered by steam engine and revolutionized transportation connecting centres of production with centres of consumption scattered across world. Only about a 100 years later, Wright brothers (1905) started the period of avionics. Use of high voltage transmission lines to send power across vast geographies using alternating current raised to a very high voltage revolutionized generation and transmission of electric energy in late 1800. Transoceanic cables, telephone, radio, television, photography and and transistors sowed the seeds of a modern communication. But, the best of all this was yet to come when computers started communication with computers. Internet was thus born. And rest his history. A news communication infrastructure came into being when the computers started talking to computers. Internet brought significant changes to the world all that someone who died in 1970s cannot even imagine how to world would look just twenty years after. Internet was a key driver of the communication revolution in the last three decades. India benefited from extraordinary demand for trained workers created by ICT boom driven mostly by companies headquartered in United States. Now that ICT is cooling off in US, what is next? As I see it, automation, among others, will drive next wave of innovation. Automation means machines can make decisions without a human input in two distinct but connected areas: Robotics, and Machine learning (and its cousins like Artificial Intelligence and neural networks). Robotics is about controlling mechanical movements whereas machine learning is about automatic decision making by building a decision model using the historical data. Both are pretty old but now growing again fields and will have huge impact in how humans and machines interact with each other. We may already have seen prototypes of these in our day to day life. Like a self driven car, or a brick laying machine, or automatic recommendations from e-commerce sites such as Amazon. But, more has to be come. The question is not weather the ICT, Software, Electronics, and Semiconductor industries are about to die. But, whether we would need a large number of workers to manufacture these machines and write software for them. One thing great about the Internet was that it created a lot of jobs. But, will the emerging innovation areas in software and robotics require an army of highly paid engineers as ICT once did? The best is to say that I do not know. In terms of innovation, a lot of things are happening at many fronts. Innovation converted telephone, a dumb piece of electronics, into a smart device just in about 15 years. Same things are going to happen to car. Cars are at the same stage of evolution today where the phones were about 20 years ago. A decade from now, automatic cars will commonplace and no more a novelty. Jokes can be heard among engineers working on smart cars that they will do to the car what we did to the phone. What is the smart part in the smart-phones? And what qualifies the devices and equipments to be called smart? Smartness has three components (the three Cs of smartness): computation, communication, and connectivity. In other words, for a device to be called smart, it has to be be able to do three things: it should be able to compute, it should be able to communicate, and it should be aware of its connections with other devices. The former two are generally understood well be everyone. So, let me focus on the third. Connectivity (topological and physical) is the idea of that a device is connected to a network of other devices. This is also called locational awareness. Which means a smart car will know what other devices and cars are around it (possibly inter-connected through IOT, the internet of things, to be enabled by 5G standards when they are finalized). But, would these cool sounding technological buzzwords and mumbo-jumbo create a lot of jobs like ICT boom did ? No one knows for sure. But one thing is sure, India must diversify its skills and expertise if it has to stay ahead of the curve. None of the changes described above, however, have anything to do with VISAs for NON-US workers. US has a history inviting foreign workers to meet demand spurts that cannot be met locally. Will so many of foreign ICT workers be needed in future too given that a large number of these positions can be filled locally? Despite all the visa restrictions we are talking about, still about 1 million people immigrate to US every year through legal channels, and anywhere from about 1/2 million to about 2 million through non-legal channels (by over-staying or border jumping). What Trump is trying to do is to close the illegal channels of immigration to the United States. Sincerely, Ratnendra Pandey ________________________________ From: India-gii <india-gii-bounces+pandey=3Dhotmail.com-IAPFreCvJWP2/[email protected]= > on behalf of Arun Mehta <[email protected]> Sent: Thursday, February 2, 2017 9:03 PM To: [email protected] Subject: [india-gii] Indian IT was in trouble before Trump http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/view-indian-tech-was-on-the-b= rink-even-before-donald-trumps-shove/articleshow/56945718.cms Donald Trump: IT firms were staring down the barrel even ...<http://economi= ctimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/view-indian-tech-was-on-the-brink-even-befo= re-donald-trumps-shove/articleshow/56945718.cms> economictimes.indiatimes.com By Andy Mukherjee India's technology outsourcing industry was facing peak p= essimism even before Donald Trump. But if the new president signs into law = a draft ... At the risk of adding to the enormous amount of Trump-gazing going on, this= article suggests that his toughness on visas could merely be the last stra= w on the backs of the major Indian IT companies. Do you agree? warmly, Arun Mehta --_000_BY2PR01MB18804EFC880132A160CB2F8C85E0BY2PR01MB188prodex_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <html> <head> <meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-= 1"> <style type=3D"text/css" style=3D"display:none;"><!-- P {margin-top:0;margi= n-bottom:0;} --></style> </head> <body dir=3D"ltr"> <div id=3D"divtagdefaultwrapper" style=3D"font-size:12pt;color:#000000;font= -family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" dir=3D"ltr"> <p><br> </p> <div><br> </div> <div>The reader comments at the bottom of the article in the link</div> <div>nicely capture the </div> <div>state of supply and demand. In the last 25 years, </div> <div>the hourly rates have dropped significantly and most of the ICT <= /div> <div>(internet and computation technology) workers who earning at the= </div> <div>lower range of salary distribution are hardly earning enough to <= /div> <div>justify to be even in this line of work.</div> <div> </div> <div><br> </div> <div>ICT boom of last decade was an revolutionary proportions tha= t takes place </div> <div>once in 100 years of so. The shift from agrarian to industrial </= div> <div>society started with Industrial revolution and invention of steam = ;</div> <div>engine (1698) in England. Then came Railways (1825) and </d= iv> <div>trans-oceanic shipping(1819) both powered by steam engine and&nb= sp;</div> <div>revolutionized transportation connecting centres of production with&nb= sp;</div> <div>centres of consumption scattered across world. Only about a 100 <= /div> <div>years later, Wright brothers (1905) started the period of </div> <div>avionics. Use of high voltage transmission lines to send power </= div> <div>across vast geographies using alternating current raised to a very&nbs= p;</div> <div>high voltage revolutionized generation and transmission of electric&nb= sp;</div> <div>energy in late 1800. Transoceanic cables, telephone, radio, </div= > <div>television, photography and and transistors sowed the seeds of a= </div> <div>modern communication. But, the best of all this was yet to come <= /div> <div>when computers started communication with computers. Internet was = ;</div> <div>thus born. And rest his history. A news communication </div> <div>infrastructure came into being when the computers started talkin= g </div> <div>to computers. Internet brought significant changes to the world all&nb= sp;</div> <div>that someone who died in 1970s cannot even imagine how to world <= /div> <div>would look just twenty years after.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>Internet was a key driver of the communication revolution in the= </div> <div>last three decades.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>India benefited from extraordinary demand for trained</div> <div>workers created by ICT boom driven mostly by companies</div> <div>headquartered in United States. Now that ICT is cooling</div> <div>off in US, <span style=3D"font-size: 12pt;"> what is next?</= span></div> <div><br> </div> <div>As I see it, automation, among others, will drive next wave of </= div> <div>innovation. Automation means machines can make decisions without a&nbs= p;</div> <div>human input in two distinct but connected areas: Robotics, and&n= bsp;</div> <div>Machine learning (and its cousins like Artificial Intelligence and&nbs= p;</div> <div>neural networks). Robotics is about controlling mechanical </div> <div>movements whereas machine learning is about automatic decision </= div> <div>making by building a decision model using the historical </= div> <div>data. Both are pretty old but now growing again fields and will <= /div> <div>have huge impact in how humans and machines interact with each </= div> <div>other. We may already have seen prototypes of these in our day to = ;</div> <div>day life. Like a self driven car, or a brick laying machine, or&n= bsp;</div> <div>automatic recommendations from e-commerce sites such as Amazon.&= nbsp;</div> <div>But, more has to be come. The question is not weather the ICT, </= div> <div>Software, Electronics, and Semiconductor industries are about to = </div> <div>die. But, whether we would need a large number of workers to </di= v> <div>manufacture these machines and write software for them.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>One thing great about the Internet was that it created a lot of <= /div> <div>jobs. But, will the emerging innovation areas in software and </d= iv> <div>robotics require an army of highly paid engineers as ICT once did?&nbs= p;</div> <div>The best is to say that I do not know. </div> <div><br> </div> <div>In terms of innovation, a lot of things are happening at many </d= iv> <div>fronts. Innovation converted telephone, a dumb piece of </div> <div>electronics, into a smart device just in about 15 years. Same </d= iv> <div>things are going to happen to car. Cars are at the same stage</di= v> <div>of evolution today where the phones were </div> <div>about 20 years ago. A decade from now, automatic cars will </div> <div>commonplace and no more a novelty. Jokes can be heard among engineers<= /div> <div>working on smart cars that they will </div> <div>do to the car what we did to the phone.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>What is the smart part in the smart-phones? And what qualifies &= nbsp;</div> <div>the devices and equipments to be called smart? Smartness h= as </div> <div>three components (the three Cs of smartness): computation, </div> <div>communication, and connectivity. In other words, for a device to be&nb= sp;</div> <div>called smart, it has to be be able to do three things: it should be&nb= sp;</div> <div>able to compute, it should be able to communicate, and it should be&nb= sp;</div> <div>aware of its connections with other devices. The former two are <= /div> <div>generally understood well be everyone. So, let me focus on the </= div> <div>third. Connectivity (topological and physical) is the idea of th= at </div> <div>a device is connected to a network of other devices. This is also = ;</div> <div>called locational awareness. Which means a smart car will know what&nb= sp;</div> <div>other devices and cars are around it (possibly inter-connected <= /div> <div>through IOT, the internet of things, to be enabled by 5G standards&nbs= p;</div> <div>when they are finalized). But, would these cool sounding </= div> <div>technological buzzwords and mumbo-jumbo create a lot of jobs like = ;</div> <div>ICT boom did ? No one knows for sure.</div> <div><br> </div> <div>But one thing is sure, India must diversify its skills and </div> <div>expertise if it has to stay ahead of the curve. None of the = ;</div> <div>changes described above, however, have anything to do with VISAs = </div> <div>for NON-US workers. US has a history inviting foreign workers to = </div> <div>meet demand spurts that cannot be met locally. Will so many of&n= bsp;</div> <div>foreign ICT workers be needed in future too given that a large&n= bsp;</div> <div>number of these positions can be filled locally? Despite all the = </div> <div>visa restrictions we are talking about, still about 1 million </d= iv> <div>people immigrate to US every year through legal channels, and </= div> <div>anywhere from about 1/2 million to about 2 million through = </div> <div>non-legal channels (by over-staying or border jumping). </div> <div>What Trump is trying to do is to close the illegal channels </div= > <div>of immigration to the United States.</div> <div><br> </div> Sincerely, <div>Ratnendra Pandey<br> <br> <div style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> <hr tabindex=3D"-1" style=3D"display:inline-block; width:98%"> <div id=3D"divRplyFwdMsg" dir=3D"ltr"><font face=3D"Calibri, sans-serif" co= lor=3D"#000000" style=3D"font-size:11pt"><b>From:</b> India-gii <india-g= ii-bounces+pandey=3Dhotmail.com-IAPFreCvJWP2/[email protected]> on behalf of Ar= un Mehta <[email protected]><br> <b>Sent:</b> Thursday, February 2, 2017 9:03 PM<br> <b>To:</b> [email protected]<br> <b>Subject:</b> [india-gii] Indian IT was in trouble before Trump</font> <div> </div> </div> <div> <div dir=3D"ltr"> <div> <div> <div><a href=3D"http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/view-indian-t= ech-was-on-the-brink-even-before-donald-trumps-shove/articleshow/56945718.c= ms" id=3D"LPlnk394889" previewremoved=3D"true">http://economictimes.indiati= mes.com/tech/ites/view-indian-tech-was-on-the-brink-even-before-donald-trum= ps-shove/articleshow/56945718.cms</a> <div id=3D"LPBorder_GT_14875721588040.24149358347304495" style=3D"margin-bo= ttom: 20px; overflow: auto; width: 100%; text-indent: 0px;"> <table id=3D"LPContainer_14875721588020.25934452893898907" cellspacing=3D"0= " style=3D"width: 90%; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); position: rela= tive; overflow: auto; padding-top: 20px; padding-bottom: 20px; margin-top: = 20px; border-top: 1px dotted rgb(200, 200, 200); border-bottom: 1px dotted = rgb(200, 200, 200);"> <tbody> <tr valign=3D"top" style=3D"border-spacing: 0px;"> <td id=3D"TextCell_14875721588030.5647765514738996" colspan=3D"2" style=3D"= vertical-align: top; position: relative; padding: 0px; display: table-cell;= "> <div id=3D"LPRemovePreviewContainer_14875721588030.014228117651774896"></di= v> <div id=3D"LPTitle_14875721588030.7588998907930185" style=3D"top: 0px; colo= r: rgb(0, 120, 215); font-weight: normal; font-size: 21px; font-family: wf_= segoe-ui_light, "Segoe UI Light", "Segoe WP Light", &qu= ot;Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sans-serif; line-he= ight: 21px;"> <a id=3D"LPUrlAnchor_14875721588030.8127896730329409" href=3D"http://econom= ictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/ites/view-indian-tech-was-on-the-brink-even-bef= ore-donald-trumps-shove/articleshow/56945718.cms" target=3D"_blank" style= =3D"text-decoration: none;">Donald Trump: IT firms were staring down the barrel even ...</a></div> <div id=3D"LPMetadata_14875721588040.27901031627396966" style=3D"margin: 10= px 0px 16px; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-weight: normal; font-family: w= f_segoe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Aria= l, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 14px;"> economictimes.indiatimes.com</div> <div id=3D"LPDescription_14875721588040.5161256701947923" style=3D"display:= block; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-weight: normal; font-family: wf_seg= oe-ui_normal, "Segoe UI", "Segoe WP", Tahoma, Arial, sa= ns-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; max-height: 100px; overflow: = hidden;"> By Andy Mukherjee India's technology outsourcing industry was facing peak p= essimism even before Donald Trump. But if the new president signs into law = a draft ...</div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br> <br> <br> </div> At the risk of adding to the enormous amount of Trump-gazing going on, this= article suggests that his toughness on visas could merely be the last stra= w on the backs of the major Indian IT companies. Do you agree?<br> <br> </div> warmly,<br> </div> Arun Mehta<br> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </body> </html> --_000_BY2PR01MB18804EFC880132A160CB2F8C85E0BY2PR01MB188prodex_-- --===============7274973750084818010== Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Disposition: inline X19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX18KSW5kaWEtZ2lp IG1haWxpbmcgbGlzdApJbmRpYS1naWlAbGlzdHMuaW5kaWEtZ2lpLm9yZwpodHRwczovL2xpc3Rz LmluZGlhLWdpaS5vcmcvbWFpbG1hbi9saXN0aW5mby9pbmRpYS1naWkK --===============7274973750084818010==--