Re: is automation as big as they say?
Ratnendra Pandey <[email protected]> Wed, 5 Apr 2017 17:35:34 +0000
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--===============4079873966396378491== Content-Language: en-US Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="_000_BY2PR01MB18832605E0CA20601E5459DC80A0BY2PR01MB188prodex_" --_000_BY2PR01MB18832605E0CA20601E5459DC80A0BY2PR01MB188prodex_ Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Politics and the social moves are so predictable that sometimes you cannot = stop laughing at them. Just as we were talking about the immediate and long term impact of high de= gree of automation, the Luddites (the machine haters) have already begin thinking on how to tax machines as if the owners and the users of these machines have not already been taxed to hilt, or have had their wealth and = income taken away through currency debasement and over-regulation. https://www.fastcompany.com/40400920/one-san-francisco-politician-is-explor= ing-a-tax-on-robots Like I suggested in my last post, middle class must resist the urge to tax = or throw laws and regulations to curb these machines. Well, the sum and substance of the above is that even if middle class tries hard to protect it from the adverse impact of rising automation by requiring the politicians to make more laws, taxes, and regulations, when the accounts are finally added up, the middle class will loose in ways it cannot immediately see. The loosers loose most of the time not because they do not know how to put a strong fight, but because they cannot appreciate in what ways the loses come to them. Sincerely, Ratnendra Pandey ________________________________ From: Ratnendra Pandey <[email protected]> Sent: Sunday, April 2, 2017 4:57 PM To: Arun Mehta; [email protected] Subject: Re: [india-gii] is automation as big as they say? I had opportunity to listen to Dr Peter Stone of UT Austin recently at Synopsys User Group Conference in Santa Clara, CA, USA where he was talking about Machine Learning and his work in this area. During the presentation he mentioned how opinions on this matter (automation) swing between two extremes: Machines leading to Utopia or Dystopia, the take over and the utter annihilation of human race by intelligent machines. He referred to a report on this topic ( which I have not personally read so I cannot comment on it): https://ai100.stanford.edu/2016-report/overview Here is how I see by projecting into future what has happened since the industrial revolution. Left/socialist leaning readers will probably love what I am going to write next. High level of industrialization and innovation has resulted= in concentration of productive capacity of economy in hands of fewer people. This will continue with advancement in robotics and artificial intelligence. Because what one can produce does not remain dependent upon his or her physical and biological capacity but upon the machines (and logarithms, IP, patents, and licenses) and the assets he or she own. As the workers are displaced by the machines, the gain will go mostly to those owner of these machines (algorithms, IPs, patents, licenses) who will be forced to share some of the gains with workers needed to build and operate these machines. The remaining workers will join the pool of the workers to compete for the jobs that cannot be given to a machine. These workers will share the profits remaining after owners of machines have been given their share (which will be huge by the way). This may result in further erosion of relative wages in the jobs that cannot be automated. But, I am not expecting social revolution of the kind we saw in between late 18th and early 19th century. The workers who will be on the lower end of hierarchy will still be better off than those in middle class or higher class today in terms of consuming material wealth, even though the gains they will be receiving will be smaller part of a bigger output. As a result they will be over worked as and will enjoy lesser free time. It may have remained noticed by many, but industrial revolution has resulted in creation of bigger and welfare governments around the world with fewer people being able to make laws and run administration over vast areas for a large number of people. This means less freedom to the people of the bottom. If you think about it, it is the technology that has enabled reserve banking of the kind we are seeing today where government can create money out nothing and push economy to the state where everyone is basically living to discharge one debt or the other, like home mortgage, car payment, fees for this or that, and paying taxes. So what is the solution. Please do not try to save jobs that will be lost to machines. You will not get these jobs back. Let there be Less Government, fewer laws, little regulation, smallest taxation. We must fight the urge to enable government takeover of these machines ( alogarithms, IP, patents, and licenses). Instead we must allow a competition between the machines to happen so that they nullify each other and leave us with some peace. How nice would it be when machines learn to be kind to us, the humans? Sincerely, Ratnendra Pandey ________________________________ From: India-gii <india-gii-bounces+pandey=3Dhotmail.com-IAPFreCvJWP2/[email protected]= > on behalf of Arun Mehta <[email protected]> Sent: Monday, March 20, 2017 10:14 PM To: [email protected] Subject: [india-gii] is automation as big as they say? http://www.firstpost.com/business/cognizant-may-lay-off-6000-tech-grads-wil= l-have-to-upscale-skills-to-stay-relevant-survive-3344404.html [http://www.firstpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/IT_staff_Reuters_3801.= jpg]<http://www.firstpost.com/business/cognizant-may-lay-off-6000-tech-grad= s-will-have-to-upscale-skills-to-stay-relevant-survive-3344404.html> Cognizant may lay off 6,000: Tech grads will have to ...<http://www.firstpo= st.com/business/cognizant-may-lay-off-6000-tech-grads-will-have-to-upscale-= skills-to-stay-relevant-survive-3344404.html> www.firstpost.com The employment scenario in the country is bleak what with the IT sector, in= cluding the startups - a key sector in the jobs market - letting go off emp= loyees in large ... I agree, that with apps, ATMs and online access, users are doing a lot of d= ata entry that was done at the back end earlier. I also agree that artifici= al intelligence and other automation technologies have made big strides rec= ently. But does that justify Nasscom's estimate of 20-25 percent reduction in jobs= over the next three years? I can understand that companies touting these technologies will use hype. B= ut I don't see how such drastic shrinkage will happen. For instance, many Indian companies maintain websites. These use a wide var= iety of technologies -- how is anyone going to automate old websites? Those feeling the pinch, please pipe up! warmly, Arun Mehta --_000_BY2PR01MB18832605E0CA20601E5459DC80A0BY2PR01MB188prodex_ Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <html> <head> <meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html; charset=3Diso-8859-= 1"> <style type=3D"text/css" style=3D"display:none;"><!-- P {margin-top:0;margi= n-bottom:0;} --></style> </head> <body dir=3D"ltr"> <div id=3D"divtagdefaultwrapper" style=3D"font-size:12pt;color:#000000;font= -family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;" dir=3D"ltr"> <p>Politics and the social moves are so predictable that sometimes you cann= ot stop laughing at them.</p> <p>Just as we were talking about the immediate and long term impact of= high degree of automation,</p> <p>the Luddites (the machine haters) have already begin thinking = </p> <p>on how to tax machines as if the owners and the users of these</p> <p>machines have not already been taxed to hilt, or have had their wealth a= nd income</p> <p>taken away through currency debasement and over-regulation.</p> <p><br> </p> <p><a href=3D"https://www.fastcompany.com/40400920/one-san-francisco-politi= cian-is-exploring-a-tax-on-robots" class=3D"OWAAutoLink" id=3D"LPlnk587813"= previewremoved=3D"true">https://www.fastcompany.com/40400920/one-san-franc= isco-politician-is-exploring-a-tax-on-robots</a><br> </p> <p><br> </p> <p><br> </p> <p>Like I suggested in my last post, middle class must resist the urge to t= ax or</p> <p>throw laws and regulations to curb these machines.</p> <p><br> </p> <p>Well, the sum and substance of the above is that even if middle cla= ss tries</p> <p>hard to protect it from the adverse impact of rising automation </p= > <p>by requiring the politicians to make more laws, taxes, and regulations,<= /p> <p>when the accounts are finally added up, the middle class will loose</p> <p>in ways it cannot immediately see.</p> <p><br> </p> <p>The loosers loose most of the time not because they do not know</p> <p>how to put a strong fight, but because they cannot appreciate in w= hat ways</p> <p>the loses come to them.</p> <p><br> </p> <p><br> </p> <p><br> </p> <p>Sincerely,</p> <p>Ratnendra Pandey</p> <br> <br> <div style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"> <hr tabindex=3D"-1" style=3D"display:inline-block; width:98%"> <div id=3D"divRplyFwdMsg" dir=3D"ltr"><font face=3D"Calibri, sans-serif" co= lor=3D"#000000" style=3D"font-size:11pt"><b>From:</b> Ratnendra Pandey <= [email protected]><br> <b>Sent:</b> Sunday, April 2, 2017 4:57 PM<br> <b>To:</b> Arun Mehta; [email protected]<br> <b>Subject:</b> Re: [india-gii] is automation as big as they say?</font> <div> </div> </div> <div> <div id=3D"divtagdefaultwrapper" dir=3D"ltr" style=3D"font-size:12pt; color= :#000000; font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif"> <p></p> <div>I had opportunity to listen to Dr Peter Stone of UT Austin </div> <div>recently at Synopsys User Group Conference in Santa Clara, CA, USA &nb= sp;where</div> <div>he was talking about Machine Learning and his work in</div> <div>this area. During the presentation he mentioned how opinions on&= nbsp;</div> <div>this matter (automation) swing between two</div> <div>extremes: Machines leading to Utopia or Dystopia, the </div> <div>take over and the utter</div> <div>annihilation of human race by intelligent machines. </div> <div><br> </div> <div>He referred to a report on this topic ( which I have not </div> <div>personally read so I cannot comment on it):</div> <div><br> </div> <div>https://ai100.stanford.edu/2016-report/overview</div> <div><br> </div> <div>Here is how I see by projecting into future what has happened </d= iv> <div>since the industrial revolution. </div> <div>Left/socialist leaning readers will probably love what I am goin= g </div> <div>to write next. <span style=3D"font-size:12pt">High level of indu= strialization and innovation has resulted in </span></div> <div>concentration of productive capacity of economy in hands of fewer = ;</div> <div>people. This will continue with advancement in robotics and </div= > <div>artificial intelligence. Because what one can produce does not&n= bsp;</div> <div>remain dependent upon his or her physical and biological capacity = ;</div> <div>but upon the machines (and logarithms, IP, patents, and licenses) = ;</div> <div>and the assets he or she own. </div> <div> As the workers are displaced by the machines, the gain will go&n= bsp;</div> <div>mostly to those owner of these machines (algorithms, IPs, patents,&nbs= p;</div> <div>licenses) who will be forced to share some of the gains with </di= v> <div>workers needed to build and operate these machines. </div> <div><br> </div> <div><br> </div> <div> The remaining workers will join the pool of the workers to compe= te </div> <div>for the jobs that cannot be given to a machine. These workers will&nbs= p;</div> <div>share the profits remaining after owners of machines have been&n= bsp;</div> <div>given their share (which will be huge by the way). This may </div= > <div>result in further erosion of relative wages in the jobs th= at </div> <div>cannot be automated. </div> <div><br> </div> <div> But, I am not expecting social revolution of the kind we s= aw in </div> <div>between late 18th and early 19th century. The workers who will be = ;</div> <div>on the lower end of hierarchy will still be better off than those = ;</div> <div>in middle class or higher class today in terms of consuming </div= > <div>material wealth, even though the gains they will be receiving will&nbs= p;</div> <div>be smaller part of a bigger output. As a result they will be ove= r </div> <div>worked as and will enjoy lesser free time. </div> <div><br> </div> <div> It may have remained noticed by many, but industrial revolution&= nbsp;</div> <div>has resulted in creation of bigger and welfare governments= </div> <div>around the world with fewer people being able to make laws and run&nbs= p;</div> <div>administration over vast areas for a large number of people. This = ;</div> <div>means less freedom to the people of the bottom. </div> <div><br> </div> <div>If you think about it, it is the technology that has enabled </di= v> <div>reserve banking of the kind we are seeing today where government = </div> <div>can create money out nothing and push economy to the state where = </div> <div>everyone is basically living to discharge one debt or the other, = </div> <div>like home mortgage, car payment, fees for this or that, and paying&nbs= p;</div> <div>taxes. </div> <div><br> </div> <div><br> </div> <div>So what is the solution. Please do not try to save jobs that will = ;</div> <div>be lost to machines. You will not get these jobs back. Let there= </div> <div>be Less Government, fewer laws, little regulation, smallest </div= > <div>taxation. We must fight the urge to enable government take= over of </div> <div>these machines ( alogarithms, IP, patents, and licenses). Instead = ;</div> <div>we must allow a competition between the machines to happen so that&nbs= p;</div> <div>they nullify each other and leave us with some peace. </div> <div><br> </div> <div>How nice would it be when machines learn to be kind to us, the </= div> <div>humans? </div> <div>Sincerely,</div> <div>Ratnendra Pandey </div> <div><br> </div> <br> <p></p> <p style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Colo= r Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symb= ol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols; font-size:16px"> <br> </p> <p style=3D"font-family:Calibri,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif,"Apple Colo= r Emoji","Segoe UI Emoji",NotoColorEmoji,"Segoe UI Symb= ol","Android Emoji",EmojiSymbols; font-size:16px"> <br> </p> <br> <br> <div style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0)"> <hr tabindex=3D"-1" style=3D"display:inline-block; width:98%"> <div id=3D"divRplyFwdMsg" dir=3D"ltr"><font face=3D"Calibri, sans-serif" co= lor=3D"#000000" style=3D"font-size:11pt"><b>From:</b> India-gii <india-g= ii-bounces+pandey=3Dhotmail.com-IAPFreCvJWP2/[email protected]> on behalf of Ar= un Mehta <[email protected]><br> <b>Sent:</b> Monday, March 20, 2017 10:14 PM<br> <b>To:</b> [email protected]<br> <b>Subject:</b> [india-gii] is automation as big as they say?</font> <div> </div> </div> <div> <div dir=3D"ltr"> <div> <div> <div> <div> <div> <div> <div><a href=3D"http://www.firstpost.com/business/cognizant-may-lay-off-600= 0-tech-grads-will-have-to-upscale-skills-to-stay-relevant-survive-3344404.h= tml" id=3D"LPlnk200895" previewremoved=3D"true">http://www.firstpost.com/bu= siness/cognizant-may-lay-off-6000-tech-grads-will-have-to-upscale-skills-to= -stay-relevant-survive-3344404.html</a> <div id=3D"LPBorder_GT_14911749960090.8828011140261491" style=3D"margin-bot= tom:20px; overflow:auto; width:100%; text-indent:0px"> <table id=3D"LPContainer_14911749960060.5867359097904479" cellspacing=3D"0"= style=3D"width:90%; background-color:rgb(255,255,255); overflow:auto; padd= ing-top:20px; padding-bottom:20px; margin-top:20px; border-top:1px dotted r= gb(200,200,200); border-bottom:1px dotted rgb(200,200,200)"> <tbody> <tr valign=3D"top" style=3D"border-spacing:0px"> <td id=3D"ImageCell_14911749960070.5113292482503455" colspan=3D"1" style=3D= "width:250px; display:table-cell; padding-right:20px"> <div id=3D"LPImageContainer_14911749960070.5328233677929297" style=3D"backg= round-color:rgb(255,255,255); height:187px; margin:auto; display:table; wid= th:250px"> <a id=3D"LPImageAnchor_14911749960070.32240400044246265" href=3D"http://www= .firstpost.com/business/cognizant-may-lay-off-6000-tech-grads-will-have-to-= upscale-skills-to-stay-relevant-survive-3344404.html" target=3D"_blank" sty= le=3D"display:table-cell; text-align:center"><img id=3D"LPThumbnailImageID_= 14911749960080.26307005143982454" width=3D"250" height=3D"187" style=3D"dis= play:inline-block; max-width:250px; max-height:250px; height:187px; width:2= 50px; border-width:0px; vertical-align:bottom" src=3D"http://www.firstpost.= com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/IT_staff_Reuters_3801.jpg"></a></div> </td> <td id=3D"TextCell_14911749960080.9877597051155449" colspan=3D"2" style=3D"= vertical-align: top; padding: 0px; display: table-cell; position: relative;= "> <div id=3D"LPRemovePreviewContainer_14911749960080.20408171975197797"></div= > <div id=3D"LPTitle_14911749960080.937542525475318" style=3D"top:0px; color:= rgb(0,120,215); font-weight:normal; font-size:21px; font-family:wf_segoe-ui= _light,"Segoe UI Light","Segoe WP Light","Segoe UI= ","Segoe WP",Tahoma,Arial,sans-serif; line-height:21px"> <a id=3D"LPUrlAnchor_14911749960080.5743971209664587" href=3D"http://www.fi= rstpost.com/business/cognizant-may-lay-off-6000-tech-grads-will-have-to-ups= cale-skills-to-stay-relevant-survive-3344404.html" target=3D"_blank" style= =3D"text-decoration:none">Cognizant may lay off 6,000: Tech grads will have to ...</a></div> <div id=3D"LPMetadata_14911749960080.7189449083401653" style=3D"margin:10px= 0px 16px; color:rgb(102,102,102); font-weight:normal; font-family:wf_segoe= -ui_normal,"Segoe UI","Segoe WP",Tahoma,Arial,sans-seri= f; font-size:14px; line-height:14px"> www.firstpost.com</div> <div id=3D"LPDescription_14911749960090.09560142936793126" style=3D"display= :block; color:rgb(102,102,102); font-weight:normal; font-family:wf_segoe-ui= _normal,"Segoe UI","Segoe WP",Tahoma,Arial,sans-serif; = font-size:14px; line-height:20px; max-height:100px; overflow:hidden"> The employment scenario in the country is bleak what with the IT sector, in= cluding the startups - a key sector in the jobs market - letting go off emp= loyees in large ...</div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </div> <br> <br> <br> </div> I agree, that with apps, ATMs and online access, users are doing a lot of d= ata entry that was done at the back end earlier. I also agree that artifici= al intelligence and other automation technologies have made big strides rec= ently. <br> <br> </div> But does that justify Nasscom's estimate of 20-25 percent reduction in jobs= over the next three years?<br> <br> </div> I can understand that companies touting these technologies will use hype. B= ut I don't see how such drastic shrinkage will happen.<br> <br> </div> For instance, many Indian companies maintain websites. These use a wide var= iety of technologies -- how is anyone going to automate old websites?<br> <br> </div> Those feeling the pinch, please pipe up!<br> <br> </div> warmly,<br> </div> Arun Mehta<br> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </body> </html> --_000_BY2PR01MB18832605E0CA20601E5459DC80A0BY2PR01MB188prodex_-- --===============4079873966396378491== Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-Disposition: inline X19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX19fX18KSW5kaWEtZ2lp IG1haWxpbmcgbGlzdApJbmRpYS1naWlAbGlzdHMuaW5kaWEtZ2lpLm9yZwpodHRwczovL2xpc3Rz LmluZGlhLWdpaS5vcmcvbWFpbG1hbi9saXN0aW5mby9pbmRpYS1naWkK --===============4079873966396378491==--