Google Zero is coming [was Re: Wikipedia at 25: A Wake-Up Call (essay)]

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On Tue, Jul 7, 2026 at 4:26=E2=80=AFPM Erik Moeller via Wikimedia-l <
[email protected]> wrote:

> And, surprise surprise, those [Google AI] summaries do cost clicks. See
> e.g. this
> Pew study from a year ago:
>
> https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/07/22/google-users-are-less-=
likely-to-click-on-links-when-an-ai-summary-appears-in-the-results/
>
> Google and other search engines have been continuously optimizing
> those summaries since, so I would expect the effect size to increase
> over time. I personally start many of my searches on g.ai (their more
> robust AI Mode) directly; a lot of what we used to call "search" is
> IMO headed that way.


I was talking with a friend in the news business recently, and they said
news sites are actively preparing for =E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D, the da=
y when Google
Search sends them zero (or effectively zero, for revenue purposes) traffic.
That=E2=80=99s why every quality news site is pushing subscriptions and soc=
ial
network video hard.

=E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D is a very, very predictable future for us as =
well.[1]

A few months ago, before I had this useful and simple catchphrase, I urged
some Foundation folks to orient their annual strategy process around the
loss of 100% of search referral traffic, not 8% (as it was in the spring),
or 20% (as it may be now), or whatever number it happens to be by the time
we gather in Paris or Wikimania 2027.

But I think now that was the wrong question. The right question is: what
are *we* are going to do about Google Zero?

This question is very explicitly not: *what is WMF going to do about Google
Zero*. We can, should, must be more than WMF in this moment. If we=E2=80=99=
re
reduced to just the capabilities and capacity of a single US non-profit of
a few hundred people, we=E2=80=99re going to lose.

To win (or even just to survive) we must be a very broad, innovative,
not-afraid-to-fail movement that happens to contain a US 501(c)3.

The good news, I think, is that we=E2=80=99re uniquely well-positioned to d=
o that:
- Open knowledge, aside from Wikipedia, has never been healthier (with
arxiv, GH, etc.);
- our APIs and data allow many experiments, as do those of our partners
like Archive;
- if we grow our editors through different channels, our mission can still
be achieved even if we are no longer a top-10 website;
- etc.

I hope to see a lot of you around Wikimania to talk about this.

Luis

[1] Not necessarily the only future; we=E2=80=99re currently on the path of
newspapers (near-total collapse) but it isn=E2=80=99t impossible to imagine=
 curves
like arxiv=E2=80=99s or reddit=E2=80=99s or github=E2=80=99s
https://lu.is/2026/04/web-collaboration-five-graphs/

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<div dir=3D"auto"><div><div dir=3D"auto"><span>On Tue, Jul 7, 2026 at 4:26=
=E2=80=AFPM Erik Moeller via Wikimedia-l &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:wikimedia-l@=
lists.wikimedia.org" target=3D"_blank">[email protected]</a>&=
gt; wrote:</span></div></div><div><div dir=3D"auto"><div class=3D"gmail_quo=
te"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;bor=
der-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex" dir=3D"auto">
And, surprise surprise, those [Google AI] summaries do cost clicks. See e.g=
. this<br>
Pew study from a year ago:<br>
<a href=3D"https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/07/22/google-users-=
are-less-likely-to-click-on-links-when-an-ai-summary-appears-in-the-results=
/" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r=
eads/2025/07/22/google-users-are-less-likely-to-click-on-links-when-an-ai-s=
ummary-appears-in-the-results/</a><br>
<br>
Google and other search engines have been continuously optimizing<br>
those summaries since, so I would expect the effect size to increase<br>
over time. I personally start many of my searches on <a href=3D"http://g.ai=
" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">g.ai</a> (their more<br>
robust AI Mode) directly; a lot of what we used to call &quot;search&quot; =
is<br>
IMO headed that way.</blockquote><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"au=
to">I was talking with a friend in the news business recently, and they sai=
d news sites are actively preparing for =E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D, the =
day when Google Search sends them zero (or effectively zero, for revenue pu=
rposes) traffic. That=E2=80=99s why every quality news site is pushing subs=
criptions and social network video hard.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><=
div dir=3D"auto">=E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D is a very, very predictable =
future for us as well.[1]</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto=
">A few months ago, before I had this useful and simple catchphrase, I urge=
d some Foundation folks to orient their annual strategy process around the =
loss of 100% of search referral traffic, not 8% (as it was in the spring), =
or 20% (as it may be now), or whatever number it happens to be by the time =
we gather in Paris or Wikimania 2027.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div=
 dir=3D"auto">But I think now that was the wrong question. The right questi=
on is:=C2=A0what are *we* are going to do about Google Zero?=C2=A0</div><di=
v dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">This question is very explicitly=
 not: *what is WMF going to do about Google Zero*. We can, should, must be =
more than WMF in this moment. If we=E2=80=99re reduced to just the capabili=
ties and capacity of a single US non-profit of a few hundred people, we=E2=
=80=99re going to lose.=C2=A0</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"=
auto">To win (or even just to survive) we must=C2=A0be a very broad, innova=
tive, not-afraid-to-fail movement that happens=C2=A0to contain a US 501(c)3=
.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">The good news, I think=
, is that we=E2=80=99re uniquely well-positioned to do that:=C2=A0</div><di=
v dir=3D"auto">- Open knowledge, aside from Wikipedia, has never been healt=
hier (with arxiv, GH, etc.);</div><div dir=3D"auto">- our APIs and data all=
ow many experiments, as do those of our partners like Archive;</div><div di=
r=3D"auto">- if we grow our editors through different channels, our mission=
 can still be achieved even if we are no longer a top-10 website;</div><div=
 dir=3D"auto">- etc.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">I h=
ope to see a lot of you around Wikimania to talk about this.=C2=A0</div><di=
v dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Luis</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br>=
</div><div dir=3D"auto">[1] Not necessarily the only future; we=E2=80=99re =
currently on the path of newspapers (near-total collapse) but it isn=E2=80=
=99t impossible to imagine curves like arxiv=E2=80=99s or reddit=E2=80=99s=
=C2=A0or github=E2=80=99s<div style=3D"font-size:inherit"><a href=3D"https:=
//lu.is/2026/04/web-collaboration-five-graphs/" style=3D"font-size:inherit"=
 target=3D"_blank">https://lu.is/2026/04/web-collaboration-five-graphs/</a>=
</div></div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" s=
tyle=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);pad=
ding-left:1ex" dir=3D"auto"></blockquote></div></div>
</div>
</div>

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