Re: Google Zero is coming [was Re: Wikipedia at 25: A Wake-Up Call (essay)]

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It seems to me that we have to make a few uncomfortable choices before we
start solving this.

Do we accept that our audience will shrink permanently and there is no way
around it? Then we could embrace the role of a top source for LLMs and
"ground truth". We would stop obsessing about the trends and focus on how
to maintain a healthy community and funding.

Or do we want to fight against shrinking audiences? Then, in my mind, we
would need to be very aggressive and start using some tools and
technologies that we have always been very sceptical of. This, I guess,
would include things like content optimisation, an AI chat, major
investment in versatile social media channels and various new apps that
deliver content under our brands to specific audiences.

D


=D0=9D=D0=B0 =D1=81=D1=80, 8.07.2026=E2=80=AF=D0=B3. =D0=B2 3:41 Luis Villa=
 via Wikimedia-l <
[email protected]> =D0=BD=D0=B0=D0=BF=D0=B8=D1=81=D0=B0:

> On Tue, Jul 7, 2026 at 4:26=E2=80=AFPM Erik Moeller via Wikimedia-l <
> [email protected]> wrote:
>
>> And, surprise surprise, those [Google AI] summaries do cost clicks. See
>> e.g. this
>> Pew study from a year ago:
>>
>> https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/07/22/google-users-are-less=
-likely-to-click-on-links-when-an-ai-summary-appears-in-the-results/
>>
>> Google and other search engines have been continuously optimizing
>> those summaries since, so I would expect the effect size to increase
>> over time. I personally start many of my searches on g.ai (their more
>> robust AI Mode) directly; a lot of what we used to call "search" is
>> IMO headed that way.
>
>
> I was talking with a friend in the news business recently, and they said
> news sites are actively preparing for =E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D, the =
day when Google
> Search sends them zero (or effectively zero, for revenue purposes) traffi=
c.
> That=E2=80=99s why every quality news site is pushing subscriptions and s=
ocial
> network video hard.
>
> =E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D is a very, very predictable future for us a=
s well.[1]
>
> A few months ago, before I had this useful and simple catchphrase, I urge=
d
> some Foundation folks to orient their annual strategy process around the
> loss of 100% of search referral traffic, not 8% (as it was in the spring)=
,
> or 20% (as it may be now), or whatever number it happens to be by the tim=
e
> we gather in Paris or Wikimania 2027.
>
> But I think now that was the wrong question. The right question is: what
> are *we* are going to do about Google Zero?
>
> This question is very explicitly not: *what is WMF going to do about
> Google Zero*. We can, should, must be more than WMF in this moment. If
> we=E2=80=99re reduced to just the capabilities and capacity of a single U=
S
> non-profit of a few hundred people, we=E2=80=99re going to lose.
>
> To win (or even just to survive) we must be a very broad, innovative,
> not-afraid-to-fail movement that happens to contain a US 501(c)3.
>
> The good news, I think, is that we=E2=80=99re uniquely well-positioned to=
 do that:
> - Open knowledge, aside from Wikipedia, has never been healthier (with
> arxiv, GH, etc.);
> - our APIs and data allow many experiments, as do those of our partners
> like Archive;
> - if we grow our editors through different channels, our mission can stil=
l
> be achieved even if we are no longer a top-10 website;
> - etc.
>
> I hope to see a lot of you around Wikimania to talk about this.
>
> Luis
>
> [1] Not necessarily the only future; we=E2=80=99re currently on the path =
of
> newspapers (near-total collapse) but it isn=E2=80=99t impossible to imagi=
ne curves
> like arxiv=E2=80=99s or reddit=E2=80=99s or github=E2=80=99s
> https://lu.is/2026/04/web-collaboration-five-graphs/
>
> _______________________________________________
> Wikimedia-l mailing list -- [email protected], guidelines
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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div>It seems to me that we have to make a few uncomfortab=
le choices before we start solving this.</div><div><br></div><div>Do we acc=
ept that our audience will shrink permanently and there is no way around it=
? Then we could embrace the role of a top source for LLMs and &quot;ground =
truth&quot;. We would stop obsessing about the trends and focus on how to m=
aintain a healthy community and funding.=C2=A0<br><br></div><div>Or do we w=
ant to fight against shrinking audiences? Then, in my mind, we would need t=
o be very aggressive and start using some tools and technologies that we ha=
ve always been very sceptical of. This, I guess, would include things like =
content optimisation, an AI chat, major investment in versatile social medi=
a channels and various new apps that deliver content under our brands to sp=
ecific audiences.=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div>D</div><div><br></div></di=
v><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=3D"ltr" cla=
ss=3D"gmail_attr">=D0=9D=D0=B0 =D1=81=D1=80, 8.07.2026=E2=80=AF=D0=B3. =D0=
=B2 3:41 Luis Villa via Wikimedia-l &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:wikimedia-l@lists=
.wikimedia.org">[email protected]</a>&gt; =D0=BD=D0=B0=D0=BF=
=D0=B8=D1=81=D0=B0:<br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"mar=
gin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1=
ex"><div dir=3D"auto"><div><div dir=3D"auto"><span>On Tue, Jul 7, 2026 at 4=
:26=E2=80=AFPM Erik Moeller via Wikimedia-l &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:wikimedia=
[email protected]" target=3D"_blank">[email protected]</=
a>&gt; wrote:</span></div></div><div><div dir=3D"auto"><div class=3D"gmail_=
quote"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;=
border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex" dir=3D"auto">
And, surprise surprise, those [Google AI] summaries do cost clicks. See e.g=
. this<br>
Pew study from a year ago:<br>
<a href=3D"https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/07/22/google-users-=
are-less-likely-to-click-on-links-when-an-ai-summary-appears-in-the-results=
/" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r=
eads/2025/07/22/google-users-are-less-likely-to-click-on-links-when-an-ai-s=
ummary-appears-in-the-results/</a><br>
<br>
Google and other search engines have been continuously optimizing<br>
those summaries since, so I would expect the effect size to increase<br>
over time. I personally start many of my searches on <a href=3D"http://g.ai=
" rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">g.ai</a> (their more<br>
robust AI Mode) directly; a lot of what we used to call &quot;search&quot; =
is<br>
IMO headed that way.</blockquote><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"au=
to">I was talking with a friend in the news business recently, and they sai=
d news sites are actively preparing for =E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D, the =
day when Google Search sends them zero (or effectively zero, for revenue pu=
rposes) traffic. That=E2=80=99s why every quality news site is pushing subs=
criptions and social network video hard.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><=
div dir=3D"auto">=E2=80=9CGoogle Zero=E2=80=9D is a very, very predictable =
future for us as well.[1]</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto=
">A few months ago, before I had this useful and simple catchphrase, I urge=
d some Foundation folks to orient their annual strategy process around the =
loss of 100% of search referral traffic, not 8% (as it was in the spring), =
or 20% (as it may be now), or whatever number it happens to be by the time =
we gather in Paris or Wikimania 2027.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div=
 dir=3D"auto">But I think now that was the wrong question. The right questi=
on is:=C2=A0what are *we* are going to do about Google Zero?=C2=A0</div><di=
v dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">This question is very explicitly=
 not: *what is WMF going to do about Google Zero*. We can, should, must be =
more than WMF in this moment. If we=E2=80=99re reduced to just the capabili=
ties and capacity of a single US non-profit of a few hundred people, we=E2=
=80=99re going to lose.=C2=A0</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"=
auto">To win (or even just to survive) we must=C2=A0be a very broad, innova=
tive, not-afraid-to-fail movement that happens=C2=A0to contain a US 501(c)3=
.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">The good news, I think=
, is that we=E2=80=99re uniquely well-positioned to do that:=C2=A0</div><di=
v dir=3D"auto">- Open knowledge, aside from Wikipedia, has never been healt=
hier (with arxiv, GH, etc.);</div><div dir=3D"auto">- our APIs and data all=
ow many experiments, as do those of our partners like Archive;</div><div di=
r=3D"auto">- if we grow our editors through different channels, our mission=
 can still be achieved even if we are no longer a top-10 website;</div><div=
 dir=3D"auto">- etc.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">I h=
ope to see a lot of you around Wikimania to talk about this.=C2=A0</div><di=
v dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Luis</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br>=
</div><div dir=3D"auto">[1] Not necessarily the only future; we=E2=80=99re =
currently on the path of newspapers (near-total collapse) but it isn=E2=80=
=99t impossible to imagine curves like arxiv=E2=80=99s or reddit=E2=80=99s=
=C2=A0or github=E2=80=99s<div style=3D"font-size:inherit"><a href=3D"https:=
//lu.is/2026/04/web-collaboration-five-graphs/" style=3D"font-size:inherit"=
 target=3D"_blank">https://lu.is/2026/04/web-collaboration-five-graphs/</a>=
</div></div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" s=
tyle=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);pad=
ding-left:1ex" dir=3D"auto"></blockquote></div></div>
</div>
</div>
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