[rad-green] Doubling Down Into Yet Another ‘Mar ch of Folly,’ This Time on Iran: Veteran Intelligen ce Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

https://consortiumnews.com/2020/01/03/vips-memo-doubling-down-into-yet-another-march-of-folly-this-time-on-iran/

*Consortium News          January 3, 2020*

VIPS MEMO: Doubling Down Into Yet Another ‘March of Folly,’ This Time on
Iran*The country expecting to benefit most from hostilities between Iran
and the U.S. is Israel (with Saudi Arabia in second place).*

*MEMORANDUM FOR:* The President

*FROM:* Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)

*SUBJECT: *Doubling Down Into Another “March of Folly”?
[image: image.png]

The drone assassination in Iraq of Iranian Quds Force commander General
Qassem Soleimani evokes memory of the assassination of Austrian Archduke
Ferdinand in June 1914, which led to World War I. Iran’s Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quick to warn of “severe revenge.” That Iran
will retaliate at a time and place of its choosing is a near certainty. And
escalation into World War III is no longer just a remote possibility,
particularly given the multitude of vulnerable targets offered by our large
military footprint in the region and in nearby waters.

What your advisers may have avoided telling you is that Iran has *not* been
isolated. Quite the contrary. One short week ago, for example, Iran
launched its first joint naval exercises with Russia and China in the Gulf
of Oman, in an unprecedented challenge to the U.S. in the region.

*Cui Bono?*

It is time to call a spade a spade. The country expecting to benefit most
from hostilities between Iran and the U.S. is Israel (with Saudi Arabia in
second place). As you no doubt are aware, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
is fighting for his political life. He continues to await from you the kind
of gift that keeps giving. Likewise, it appears that you, your son-in-law,
and other myopic pro-Israel advisers are as susceptible to the influence of
Israeli prime ministers as was former President George W. Bush. Some
commentators are citing your taking personal responsibility for providing
Iran with a *casus belli* as unfathomable. Looking back just a decade or
so, we see a readily distinguishable pattern.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon played a huge role in getting
George W. Bush to destroy Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. Usually taciturn, Gen.
Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser to Presidents Gerald Ford and
George H.W. Bush, warned in August 2002 that “U.S. action against Iraq …
could turn the whole region into a cauldron.” Bush paid no heed, prompting
Scowcroft to explain in Oct. 2004 to *The Financial Times* that former
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon had George W. Bush “mesmerized”; that
Sharon has him “wrapped around his little finger.” (Scowcroft was promptly
relieved of his duties as chair of the prestigious President’s Foreign
Intelligence Advisory Board.)

In Sept. 2002, well before the attack on Iraq, Philip Zelikow, who was
Executive Secretary of the 9/11 Commission, stated publicly in a moment of
unusual candor, “The ‘real threat’ from Iraq was not a threat to the United
States. The unstated threat was the threat against Israel.” Zelikow did not
explain how Iraq (or Iran), with zero nuclear weapons, would not be
deterred from attacking Israel, which had a couple of hundred such weapons.

*Zombie Generals*

When a docile, Peter-principle, “we-are-still-winning-in-Afghanistan” U.S.
military leadership sends more troops (mostly from a poverty draft) to be
wounded and killed in hostilities with Iran, Americans are likely, this
time, to look beneath the equally docile media for answers as to why. Was
it for Netanyahu and the oppressive regime in Israel? Many Americans will
wake up, and serious backlash is likely.

Events might bring a rise in the kind of anti-Semitism already responsible
for domestic terrorist attacks. And when bodybags arrive from abroad, there
may be for families and for thinking Americans, a limit to how much longer
the pro-Israel mainstream media will be able to pull the wool over their
eyes.

Those who may prefer to think that Gen. Scowcroft got up on the wrong side
of the bed on Oct. 13, 2004, the day he gave the interview to *The
Financial Times* may profit from words straight from Netanyahu’s mouth. On
Aug. 3, 2010, in a formal VIPS Memorandum for your predecessor, we provided
<https://consortiumnews.com/2010/080310c.html> some “Netanyahu in his own
words.” We include an excerpt here for historical context:

*“Netanyahu’s Calculations*

Netanyahu believes he holds the high cards, largely because of the strong
support he enjoys in our Congress and our strongly pro-Israel media. He
reads your [Obama’s] reluctance even to mention controversial bilateral
issues publicly during his recent visit as affirmation that he is in the
catbird seat in the relationship.

During election years in the U.S. (including mid-terms), Israeli leaders
are particularly confident of the power they and the Likud Lobby enjoy on
the American political scene.

Netanyahu’s attitude comes through in a video taped nine years ago and
shown on Israeli TV, in which he bragged about how he deceived President
Clinton into believing he (Netanyahu) was helping implement the Oslo
accords when he was actually destroying them.

The tape displays a contemptuous attitude toward — and wonderment at — an
America so easily influenced by Israel.  Netanyahu says:

“America is something that can be easily moved. Moved in the right
direction. … They won’t get in our way … Eighty percent of the Americans
support us. It’s absurd.”

Israeli columnist Gideon Levy wrote that the video shows Netanyahu to be “a
con artist … who thinks that Washington is in his pocket and that he can
pull the wool over its eyes,” adding that such behavior “does not change
over the years.”

*Recommendation*

We ended VIPS’ first Memorandum For the President (George W. Bush) with
this critique
<https://consortiumnews.com/2003/02/05/powells-un-speech-and-the-case-for-war/>
of
Secretary of State Colin Powell’s address at the UN earlier that day:

“No one has a corner on the truth; nor do we harbor illusions that our
analysis is “irrefutable or undeniable” [as Powell claimed his was]. But
after watching Secretary Powell today, we are convinced that you would be
well served if you widened the discussion … beyond the circle of those
advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and
from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be
catastrophic.”

We are all in a liminal moment. We write with a sense of urgency suggesting
you avoid doubling down on catastrophe.

*For the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity:*

*William Binney,* former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military
Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)

*Marshall Carter-Tripp,* Foreign Service Officer and Division Director,
State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (ret.)

*Daniel Ellsberg,* (Associate VIPS)

*Graham Fuller,* former vice-chairman, National Intelligence Council (ret.)

*Robert Furukawa*, Capt, Civil Engineer Corps, USN-R, (ret.)

*Philip Giraldi,* CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)

*Mike Gravel,* former Adjutant, top secret control officer, Communications
Intelligence Service; special agent of the Counter Intelligence Corps and
former United States Senator

*Matthew Hoh,* former Capt., USMC Iraq; Foreign Service Officer,
Afghanistan (associate VIPS)

*Michael S. Kearns,* Captain, USAF (ret.); ex-Master SERE Instructor for
Strategic Reconnaissance Operations (NSA/DIA) and Special Mission Units
(JSOC)

*John Kiriakou,* former CIA Counterterrorism Officer and former Senior
Investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee

*Karen Kwiatkowski,* Lt. Col., US Air Force (ret.), at Office of Secretary
of Defense watching the manufacture of lies on Iraq, 2001-2003

*Edward Loomis,* NSA Cryptologic Computer Scientist and Technical Director
(ret.)

*Ray McGovern,* former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA
presidential briefer (ret.)

*Elizabeth Murray, *former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for the
Near East & CIA political analyst (ret.)

*Todd E. Pierce,* MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)

*Scott Ritter,* former MAJ., USMC, former UN Weapon Inspector, Iraq

*Coleen Rowley,* FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal
Counsel (ret.)

*Lawrence Wilkerson,* Col. US Army (ret.); former Chief of Staff for
Secretary of State; Distinguished Visiting Professor, College of William
and Mary (Associate VIPS)

*Sarah Wilton,* Commander, U.S. Naval Reserve (ret.) and Defense
Intelligence Agency (ret.)

*Robert Wing,* former U.S. Department of State Foreign Service Officer
(Associate VIPS)

*Ann Wright, *U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat who
resigned in 2003 in opposition to the Iraq War

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