[rad-green] U.S. Will Come To Regret Its Assassination of Qassim Soleimani

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/us-will-come-to-regret-its-assassination-of-qassim-soleimani.htm
<https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/01/us-will-come-to-regret-its-assassination-of-qassim-soleimani.html>
Moon of Alabama          January 3, 2020U.S. Will Come To Regret Its
Assassination of Qassim Soleimani

Today the U.S. declared war <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLARRLypGFs> on
Iran and Iraq.

War is what it will get.

Earlier today a U.S. drone or helicopter killed
<https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/qassem-soleimani-pentagon-us-confirms-statement-iran-trump-airstrike-iraq-a9268486.html>
Major
General Qassim Soleimani, the famous commander
<https://ctc.usma.edu/qassem-soleimani-irans-unique-regional-strategy/> of
the Iranian Quds ('Jerusalem') force, while he left the airport of Baghdad
where he had just arrived. He had planned to attend
<https://twitter.com/TomtheBasedCat/status/1212973297673162753> the funeral
of the 31 Iraqi soldiers the U.S. had killed
<https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/12/after-us-strike-on-iraqi-forces-its-troops-will-again-have-to-leave.html>
on
December 29 at the Syrian-Iraqi border near Al-Qaim.

bigger <https://www.moonofalabama.org/images9/soleimani3.jpg>

The Quds force is the external arm of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps. Soleiman was responsible for all relations between Iran and
political and militant movements outside of Iran. Hajji Qassim advised the
Lebanese Hisbullah during the 2006 war against Israel. His support for
Iraqi groups enabled them to kick the U.S. invaders out of Iraq. He was the
man responsible for, and successful in, defeating the Islamic State in Iraq
and Syria. In 2015 Soleimani traveled to Moscow and convinced Russia to
intervene in Syria. His support for the Houthi in Yemen enabled them to
withstand the Saudi attackers.

bigger <https://www.moonofalabama.org/images9/soleimani2.jpg>

Soleimani had arrived in Baghdad on a normal flight from Lebanon. He did
not travel in secret. He was picked up at the airport by Abu Mahdi
al-Muhandes, the deputy commander of the al-Hashd al-Shaabi, an official
Iraqi security force under the command of the Iraqi Prime Minister. The two
cars they traveled in were destroyed in the U.S. attack. Both men and their
drivers and guards died.

bigger <https://www.moonofalabama.org/images9/soleimani1.jpg>

The U.S. created two martyrs who will now become the models and idols for
tens of millions of youth in the Middle East.

bigger <https://www.moonofalabama.org/images9/soleimani4.jpg>

The Houthi in Yemen, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Islamic Jihad in Palestine, the
paramilitary forces in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere have all benefited from
Soleimani's advice and support. They will all take actions to revenge him.

Moqtada al-Sadr, the unruly Shia cleric who commands millions of followers
in Iraq, has given orders
<https://twitter.com/DrAbbasKadhim/status/1213000162840322050> to
reactivate his military branch 'Jaish al-Imam al-Mahdi'. Between 2004 and
2008 the Mahdi forces fought the U.S. occupation of Iraq. They will do so
again.

The outright assassination of a commander of Soleimani's weight demands an
Iranian reaction of at least a similar size. All U.S. generals or high
politicians traveling in the Middle East or elsewhere will now have to
watch their back. There will be no safety for them anywhere.

No Iraqi politician will be able to argue for keeping U.S. forces in the
country. The Iraqi Prime Minister Abdel Mahdi has
<https://twitter.com/AbuJamajem/status/1213010725574070272> called for
<https://twitter.com/ejmalrai/status/1213005297943494656> a parliament
emergency meeting to ask for the withdrawal of all U.S. troops:

"The targeted assassination of an Iraqi commander is a violation of the
agreement. It can trigger a war in Iraq and the region. It is a clear
violation of the conditions of the U.S. presence in Iraq. I call on the
parliament to take the necessary steps."

The National Security Council of Iran is meeting
<https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/world/middleeast/qassem-soleimani-iraq-iran-attack.html>
with
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to "study the options of response". There are
many such options. The U.S. has forces stationed in many countries around
Iran. From now on none of them will be safe.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a statement calling for three days of public
mourning and then retaliation.

“His departure to God does not end his path or his mission,” the statement
said, “but a forceful revenge awaits the criminals who have his blood and
the blood of the other martyrs last night on their hands.”

Iran will tie its response to the political calendar. U.S. President Donald
Trump will go into his reelection campaign with U.S. troops under threat
everywhere. We can expect incidents like the Beirut barracks bombing
<https://worldhistoryproject.org/1984/2/7/ronald-reagan-orders-marines-to-withdraw-from-lebanon>
to
repeat themselves when he is most vulnerable.

Trump will learn that killing the enemy is the easy part of a war. The
difficulties come after that happened.

In 2018 Soleimani publicly responded
<https://ctc.usma.edu/qassem-soleimani-irans-unique-regional-strategy/> to
a tweet in which Trump had threatened Iran:

“Mr. Trump, the gambler! […] You are well aware of our power and
capabilities in the region. You know how powerful we are in asymmetrical
warfare. Come, we are waiting for you. We are the real men on the scene, as
far as you are concerned. You know that a war would mean the loss of all
your capabilities. *You may start the war, but we will be the ones to
determine its end.*”

Since May 2019 the U.S. deployed at least 14,800 additional soldiers to the
Middle East. Over the last three days airborne elements and special forces
followed
<https://theaviationist.com/2020/01/02/online-flight-tracking-provides-a-look-at-the-us-build-up-in-middle-east-following-the-attack-on-us-embassy-in-iraq/>.
The U.S. has clearly planned for an escalation.

Soleimani will be replaced
<https://twitter.com/nargesbajoghli/status/1213066296964898816> by
Brigadier General Ismail Ghani, a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war who has for
decades been active in the Quds Force and has fought against ISIS in Syria.
He is an officer of equal stature and capability.

Iran's policies and support for foreign groups will intensify. The U.S. has
won nothing with its attack but will feel the consequences for decades to
come. From now on its position in the Middle East will be severely
constrained. Others will move in to take its place.

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