Venezuela Leader to Face Recall Referendum

Venezuela Leader to Face Recall Referendum
Thursday, Jun 03, 2004

By: Martin Sanchez - Venezuelanalysis.com

Caracas, Venezuela. Jun 3 (Venezuelanalysis.com).- Based on prelimina=
ry=20
data, Venezuela's National Electoral Council (CNE) announced today th=
at=20
opponents of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez managed to collect enou=
gh=20
valid signatures to demand a recall referendum against on his rule.

A signature re-verification or "repair" process, in which those who s=
igned=20
against the President but whose signatures had irregularities were re=
quired=20
to confirm of exclude their signatures, ended last Sunday. Out of 1.2=
=20
million signatures that could be repaired, the opposition managed to=
=20
re-confirm only 614,968.

74,112 persons excluded their signatures, giving credibility to repor=
ts of=20
people's signatures being used without their consent do demand the re=
call.

In order to demand a recall referendum, the opposition needed the sup=
port=20
of 2,436,083 voters, which represents 20% of the registered electorat=
e.

The toal of valid signatures collected, according to the CNE is 2,451=
,821,=20
which represents 15,738 signatures above the required number.

The CNE also announced that nine opposition lawmakers are subject to =
recall=20
referenda. Wilfredo Febres, Cesar Perez Vivas, Isabel Calderon, Carlo=
s=20
Berritzbeitia, Luis Longart, Salomon Centeno, Conrado Perez Brice=
=C3=B1o and=20
Rafael Marin will join Chavez in the recall referendum.

The recall referenda could be held at the end of July or early August=
.

Irregularities

During the repair process, numerous irregularities were reported.=
=20
Investigative police managed to confiscate thousands of forged ID car=
ds=20
during raids. There were numerous reports of signatures belonging to =
dead=20
people being repaired by others using cloned ID cards, a fact confirm=
ed by=20
electoral authorities. According to CNE board member Jorge Rodriguez,=
 out=20
of 80,000 voters who died between January and july, 50,000 death=20
certificates were not turned in to the Commission of Electoral Regist=
ry of=20
the CNE to be excluded from the voters registry. Shortly after the fo=
rms=20
for the repair process were made, the additional death certificates w=
ere=20
finally turned in little by little. Rodriguez attributes internal sab=
otage=20
for the failure to exclude the dead from the registry.

Chavez opponents claim to have been harassed by military personnel in=
=20
charge of guarding the signature collection centers. Others say that =
they=20
were prevented from repairing their signatures because their ID cards=
 have=20
not been renewed since the country changed its official name in 1,999=
.

Tough recall

After collecting little over 2.4 million valid signatures in four day=
s, to=20
recall Chavez, the opposition will need 1.35 million more votes to su=
rpass=20
the 3.75 million Chavez obtained in the last election. They also will=
 need=20
to surpass the number of votes of those who want Chavez to stay, all =
in one=20
day instead of four.

According to published polls, the President's popularity hovers betwe=
en 40=20
and 51 percent. A projected 10.3% GDP growth of the economy this year=
,=20
thanks in part to high oil prices and to economic stimulus programs, =
will=20
surely help Chavez keep or increase his popularity and survive the re=
call.=20
Last year, when the signatures were collected, the President's popula=
rity=20
ratings were around the 35% mark.

Wall Street firms such as Bear Stearns and Fitch Ratings have predict=
ed=20
that the Venezuelan leader is likely to finish his term, surviving th=
e=20
eventual recall referendum on his mandate this year.

Recall decision divides Chavez supporters

As numerous claims of irregularities were made during the repair proc=
ess,=20
the pro-Chavez camp at the grassroots=E2=80=99 level is divided among=
 those who=20
reject accepting to hold a recall vote based in a fraudulent signatur=
e=20
drive, and those who see the recall as a way of re-legitimize the Cha=
vez=20
government.

"We would win the recall referendum by a wide margin, and that would =
be an=20
excellent opportunity to re-legitimize the [revolutionary] process," =
said a=20
pro-Chavez activist who wishes to remain anonymous after losing a deb=
ate=20
during a meeting with other grassroots leaders who rejected the recal=
l.=20
"U.S. imperialism wants the CNE to declare that there were not enough=
=20
signatures for the recall, so they can say that Chavez prevented the=
=20
opposition from exercising their democratic rights. It's a trap to la=
bel=20
Chavez as a dictator, invoke the OAS Democratic Charter against Venez=
uela=20
and isolate us," he said.

Those who reject the recall, arguing that there was fraud, say that i=
t will=20
be hard to combat fraud during the recall vote. Another Chavez suppor=
ter=20
said that "they have huge technological resources, the support of the=
 U.S.=20
government, and all the media at their disposal. We are the majority,=
 but=20
they can win with fraud. They did it now, and they can do it again."

"They won't get any more votes than the signatures they collected," s=
aid=20
another Chavez supporter.

Chavez loyalists coincide that winning the recall won't cause Chavez=
=20
enemies to stop their efforts to oust him. "We have won 7 electoral=
=20
processes in five years, how many more do we need to win in order to =
be=20
seen as legitimate?", asked a pro Chavez activist during the meeting.

Coordinators under fire

The Comando Ayacucho, a coalition of political leaders from parties t=
hat=20
support Chavez, which coordinated the pro-government efforts against =
the=20
presidential recall and for the recall of opposition lawmakers, have =
come=20
under fire for their numerous failures.

Out of 39 opposition lawmakers against signatures were collected, onl=
y 9=20
are going to be recalled, a failure attributed to disorganization on =
the=20
part of the Comando Ayacucho. President Chavez's own signature agains=
t=20
opposition lawmakers was lost by those in charge of collecting the=
=20
petitions and turning them in to the National Electoral Council.

The Comando Ayacucho had claimed that about 200,000 people would excl=
ude=20
their signatures from the recall count because their signatures were =
used=20
without their authorization or signed under pressure from employers.=
=20
However, only 74,112 persons retired their signatures.

Chavez will address the nation tonight at 8:00pm local time. The=20
dissolution of the Comando Ayacucho is expected.

Recall referenda is a new constitutional right Venezuelans obtained t=
hanks=20
to the new Constitution drafted by an elected Constituency Assembly d=
uring=20
Hugo Chavez's first year in office. Allowing referenda was an idea pr=
oposed=20
by Chavez to the Assembly. The opposition rejected the proposal at th=
e=20
time, but it was supported by the majority.


--=20
Macdonald Stainsby
http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/rad-green
In the contradiction lies the hope
=09=09--Brecht.


_______________________________________________
Rad-Green mailing list
[email protected]
To change your options or unsubscribe go to:
http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/rad-green