Re: Hnadwriting is on the wall for long-haul trucking

"Mark Baugher" <[email protected]> Mon, 3 Aug 2026 08:29:05 -0700
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> On Aug 3, 2026, at 08:05, David Walters via groups.io <david.walters66=3D=
[email protected]> wrote:
>=20
> That is a bit of an exaggeration, Stuart. We have now a rollout of the fa=
r more complex driver-less taxis, still only approx. 4,000 of them, in citi=
es around the U.S. San Francisco, near where I live, has it seems hundreds =
of them rolling around the City.

They are by my anecdotal experience 20% more expensive than ride share in S=
an Francisco. I've ridden both. I like autonomous vehicles better, and I fi=
nd LLMs useful for research and writing. But forest smoke is today moving i=
nto my neighborhood and capitalism is burning up the earth with these techn=
ologies. Data centers are taking over farm land, driving our electric rates=
 up beyond what 20-40% of the Oregon population can pay, and replacing far =
more jobs than they are providing.

Autonomous vehicles are a scourge on the working class, and we should take =
aim at making them pay the social and environmental costs. When they do tha=
t, I doubt they will come within 20% of the cost of a rideshare or many oth=
er occupations.

AI LLMs will only gain commercial adoption if they add value. So far, they =
are too expensive in capital outlays relative to the jobs they seek to disp=
lace, https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/-tokens-or-humans-the-new-corporate-t=
rade-off.html - and this is without adding in the social and environmental =
costs.

Mark




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<html><head><meta http-equiv=3D"content-type" content=3D"text/html; charset=
=3Dus-ascii"></head><body style=3D"overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-=
mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><br id=3D"lineBreakAtBeginning=
OfMessage"><div><br><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>On Aug 3, 2026, at 08:05=
, David Walters via groups.io &lt;[email protected]&g=
t; wrote:</div><br class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"><div><meta charset=
=3D"UTF-8"><span style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: CourierNe=
wPSMT; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font=
-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; =
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-=
stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !imp=
ortant;">That is a bit of an exaggeration, Stuart. We have now a rollout of=
 the&nbsp;</span><em style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Couri=
erNewPSMT; font-size: 14px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; le=
tter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: =
none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0p=
x; text-decoration: none;">far more complex&nbsp;</em><span style=3D"caret-=
color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: CourierNewPSMT; font-size: 14px; font-sty=
le: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: no=
rmal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-spac=
e: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decorati=
on: none; float: none; display: inline !important;">driver-less taxis, stil=
l only approx. 4,000 of them, in cities around the U.S. San Francisco, near=
 where I live, has it seems<span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</sp=
an></span><em style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: CourierNewPS=
MT; font-size: 14px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-sp=
acing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; w=
hite-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text=
-decoration: none;">hundreds</em><span style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); =
font-family: CourierNewPSMT; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-vari=
ant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: sta=
rt; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spaci=
ng: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none=
; display: inline !important;"><span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;=
</span>of them rolling around the City.</span></div></blockquote></div><br>=
<div>They are by my anecdotal experience 20% more expensive than ride share=
 in San Francisco. I've ridden both. I like autonomous vehicles better, and=
 I find LLMs useful for research and writing. But forest smoke is today mov=
ing into my neighborhood and capitalism is burning up the earth with these =
technologies. Data centers are taking over farm land, driving our electric =
rates up beyond what 20-40% of the Oregon population can pay, and replacing=
 far more jobs than they are providing.</div><div><br></div><div>Autonomous=
 vehicles are a scourge on the working class, and we should take aim at mak=
ing them pay the social and environmental costs. When they do that, I doubt=
 they will come within 20% of the cost of a rideshare or many other occupat=
ions.</div><div><br></div><div>AI LLMs will only gain commercial adoption i=
f they add value. So far, they are too expensive in capital outlays relativ=
e to the jobs they seek to displace,&nbsp;https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/-=
tokens-or-humans-the-new-corporate-trade-off.html - and this is without add=
ing in the social and environmental costs.</div><div><br></div><div>Mark</d=
iv><div><br></div><div><br></div></body></html>

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